KJAX / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Jacksonville, FLHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST38%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

64%

59%

52%

28%

14%

Consensus

38%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 39.1¢Risks 39.05u

EPSNO 60.9¢Risks 60.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +60.95u · EPS −60.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—	—	28.8%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	65.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	86.6%	—	—	—	—	62.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	76.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	90.2%	—	—	—	—	76.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	75.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	94.2%	—	—	—	—	73.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	66.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	93.7%	—	—	—	—	72.6%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	93.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	91.9%	—	—	—	—	81.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	88.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	85.7%	—	—	—	—	77.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	91.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	86.0%	—	—	—	—	80.3%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	82.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	83.9%	—	—	—	—	81.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	85.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	65.0%	—	—	—	—	69.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	79.6%	—	47.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	71.1%	—	—	—	—	60.7%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	73.3%	—	46.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	61.0%	—	—	—	—	66.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	72.5%	—	66.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	39.8%	—	—	—	—	63.7%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	77.6%	—	52.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	38.8%	—	—	—	—	57.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	55.1%	—	60.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	68.8%	—	74.3%	—	—	56.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	57.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	72.9%	8.0%	72.9%	—	—	48.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	49.3%	—	56.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	46.5%	14.1%	61.1%	4.0%	—	34.3%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	46.4%	—	60.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	47.8%	32.3%	47.8%	54.4%	—	28.5%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	48.5%	—	20.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	45.4%	21.6%	82.1%	42.4%	—	30.3%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	43.8%	—	65.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	35.9%	22.4%	44.4%	15.4%	—	26.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	43.5%	3.3%	41.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	36.9%	30.8%	27.9%	12.0%	—	25.1%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	31.9%	15.7%	39.8%	—	—	0.9%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	42.2%	14.6%	29.1%	17.2%	64.6%	23.4%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	41.1%	—	41.1%	—	—	18.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	64%	76.3°F	4.9°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	59%	75.4°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	75.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
ICON	52%	74.8°F	6.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
National Blend	46%	74.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	28%	71.1°F	5.8°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	14%	72.0°F	2.3°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KJAX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KJAX-20261024-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 18 · 14:55 UTC

Original listing: Jacksonville high ≥ 75°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗