KJAX / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Jacksonville, FLHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST38%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

64%

59%

52%

28%

14%

Consensus

38%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 39.1¢Risks 39.05u

EPSNO 60.9¢Risks 60.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +60.95u · EPS −60.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T03:18:02+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T14:55:39+00:00	76.5%	26.2%	64.2%	21.1%	56.7%
2026-10-18T15:41:27+00:00	76.5%	19.4%	64.2%	21.1%	56.7%
2026-10-18T16:26:51+00:00	76.5%	19.4%	64.2%	21.1%	56.7%
2026-10-18T17:12:05+00:00	76.5%	19.4%	59.3%	21.1%	56.7%
2026-10-18T17:57:20+00:00	76.5%	19.4%	59.3%	21.1%	56.7%
2026-10-18T18:42:46+00:00	76.5%	19.4%	59.3%	21.1%	56.7%
2026-10-18T19:27:55+00:00	74.7%	19.4%	59.3%	21.5%	47.8%
2026-10-18T20:13:05+00:00	74.7%	19.4%	59.3%	21.5%	47.8%
2026-10-18T20:58:14+00:00	74.7%	19.4%	59.3%	21.5%	47.8%
2026-10-18T21:43:23+00:00	74.7%	19.4%	59.3%	21.5%	47.8%
2026-10-18T22:28:31+00:00	74.7%	19.4%	59.3%	21.5%	47.8%
2026-10-18T23:13:39+00:00	74.7%	19.4%	65.8%	21.5%	47.8%
2026-10-18T23:58:49+00:00	74.7%	19.4%	65.8%	21.5%	47.8%
2026-10-19T00:44:04+00:00	74.7%	19.4%	65.8%	21.5%	47.8%
2026-10-19T01:29:31+00:00	72.9%	19.4%	65.8%	21.5%	47.8%
2026-10-19T02:14:44+00:00	72.9%	19.4%	65.8%	21.5%	47.8%
2026-10-19T02:59:55+00:00	72.9%	19.4%	65.8%	21.5%	47.8%
2026-10-19T03:45:03+00:00	72.9%	19.4%	65.8%	21.5%	47.8%
2026-10-19T15:13:23+00:00	74.1%	13.9%	65.1%	42.5%	42.8%
2026-10-19T15:59:07+00:00	74.1%	13.9%	65.1%	42.5%	42.8%
2026-10-19T16:44:15+00:00	74.1%	13.9%	65.1%	42.5%	42.8%
2026-10-19T17:29:27+00:00	74.1%	13.9%	64.2%	42.5%	42.8%
2026-10-19T18:14:37+00:00	74.1%	13.9%	64.2%	42.5%	42.8%
2026-10-19T18:59:53+00:00	74.1%	13.9%	64.2%	42.5%	42.8%
2026-10-19T19:45:27+00:00	69.4%	13.9%	64.2%	27.8%	52.0%
2026-10-19T20:30:37+00:00	69.4%	13.9%	64.2%	27.8%	52.0%
2026-10-19T21:15:50+00:00	69.4%	13.9%	64.2%	27.8%	52.0%
2026-10-19T22:00:59+00:00	69.4%	13.9%	64.2%	27.8%	52.0%
2026-10-19T22:46:10+00:00	69.4%	13.9%	64.2%	27.8%	52.0%
2026-10-19T23:31:26+00:00	69.4%	13.9%	58.7%	27.8%	52.0%
2026-10-20T00:16:43+00:00	69.4%	13.9%	58.7%	27.8%	52.0%
2026-10-20T01:02:37+00:00	69.4%	13.9%	58.7%	27.8%	52.0%
2026-10-20T01:47:43+00:00	64.2%	13.9%	58.7%	27.8%	52.0%
2026-10-20T02:32:54+00:00	64.2%	13.9%	58.7%	27.8%	52.0%
2026-10-20T03:18:02+00:00	64.2%	13.9%	58.7%	27.8%	52.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	64%	76.3°F	4.9°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	59%	75.4°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	75.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
ICON	52%	74.8°F	6.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
National Blend	46%	74.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	28%	71.1°F	5.8°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	14%	72.0°F	2.3°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KJAX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KJAX-20261024-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 18 · 14:55 UTC

Original listing: Jacksonville high ≥ 75°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗