KLAS / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Las Vegas, NVHigh ≥ 80°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 17 · 03:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

56%

44%

26%

25%

13%

Consensus

33%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 34.6¢Risks 34.60u

WN2NO 65.4¢Risks 65.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +65.40u · WN2 −65.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	83.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	—	—	—	61.5%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	—	—	—	54.8%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	—	61.5%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	78.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	—	—	—	51.1%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	64.1%	—	—	—	—	41.0%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	82.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	71.2%	—	—	—	—	51.1%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	73.0%	—	—	—	—	33.5%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	65.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	74.0%	—	—	—	—	41.0%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	61.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	22.4%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	9.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	23.4%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	0.8%	—	—	18.5%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	5.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	35.2%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	69.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	28.5%	—	37.0%	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	50.6%	—	26.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	53.9%	—	50.6%	—	—	29.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	52.0%	—	10.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	43.9%	—	49.3%	—	—	18.4%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	40.4%	—	56.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	39.6%	53.5%	40.9%	3.3%	—	9.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	45.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	26.0%	—	55.8%	23.2%	—	10.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	26.8%	—	47.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	22.2%	44.7%	37.2%	43.2%	—	9.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	25.3%	—	34.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	10.0%	31.6%	31.6%	35.2%	—	5.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	24.3%	—	28.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	31.5%	27.2%	36.1%	40.9%	—	7.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	31.1%	9.9%	31.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	19.6%	31.4%	28.4%	19.0%	—	5.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	15.0%	32.6%	24.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	18.4%	40.9%	25.9%	44.5%	—	4.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	26.1%	11.3%	23.1%	—	—	5.6%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	14.7%	23.2%	27.9%	54.9%	—	4.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	27.4%	21.9%	31.7%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	16.3%	11.3%	26.8%	64.1%	—	4.7%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	14.4%	20.5%	24.5%	—	—	2.8%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	16.9%	41.3%	20.6%	55.5%	0.0%	4.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	13.5%	31.5%	23.1%	0.2%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	9.4%	25.1%	18.3%	55.8%	—	2.7%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	8.2%	25.3%	16.0%	57.2%	—	0.0%
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	12.4%	32.0%	19.1%	52.5%	13.7%	3.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	11.5%	42.3%	16.6%	62.7%	—	4.6%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	5.0%	35.6%	13.4%	58.0%	11.3%	1.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	1.1%	25.3%	12.4%	58.3%	—	1.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	35.8%	8.9%	40.0%	7.8%	2.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	9.9%	7.0%	42.5%	—	1.7%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	7.1%	4.8%	11.0%	7.7%	1.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	17.0%	2.8%	4.5%	—	0.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	56%	80.1°F	3.7°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.3181
NWS forecast	56%	80.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-16 14:00	0.3181
IFS Ensemble	44%	79.0°F	3.6°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.1980
National Blend	41%	79.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-16 06:00	0.1681
AIFS Single	26%	77.0°F	4.0°F	2026-10-16 18:00	0.0692
ICON	25%	77.1°F	3.5°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.0615
WeatherNext 2	13%	76.2°F	2.9°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.0164

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KLAS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLAS-20261017-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 11 · 03:45 UTC

Original listing: Las Vegas high ≥ 80°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗