KLAS / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Las Vegas, NVHigh ≥ 80°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 17 · 03:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

56%

44%

26%

25%

13%

Consensus

33%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 34.6¢Risks 34.60u

WN2NO 65.4¢Risks 65.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +65.40u · WN2 −65.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T03:55:43+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-11T03:45:30+00:00	69.9%	28.4%	51.6%	46.2%	69.4%
2026-10-11T04:30:57+00:00	69.9%	28.4%	51.6%	46.2%	69.4%
2026-10-11T05:16:10+00:00	69.9%	28.4%	48.4%	46.2%	69.4%
2026-10-11T06:01:19+00:00	69.9%	28.4%	48.4%	46.2%	69.4%
2026-10-11T06:46:29+00:00	69.9%	28.4%	48.4%	46.2%	69.4%
2026-10-11T07:32:52+00:00	55.3%	28.4%	48.4%	27.1%	69.4%
2026-10-11T08:18:05+00:00	55.3%	28.4%	48.4%	27.1%	69.4%
2026-10-11T09:03:13+00:00	55.3%	28.4%	48.4%	27.1%	69.4%
2026-10-11T09:48:19+00:00	55.3%	28.4%	48.4%	27.1%	69.4%
2026-10-11T10:34:26+00:00	55.3%	28.4%	48.4%	27.1%	69.4%
2026-10-11T11:20:17+00:00	55.3%	18.6%	45.6%	27.1%	69.4%
2026-10-11T12:05:25+00:00	55.3%	18.6%	45.6%	27.1%	69.4%
2026-10-11T12:50:30+00:00	55.3%	18.6%	45.6%	27.1%	69.4%
2026-10-11T13:35:58+00:00	56.0%	18.6%	45.6%	27.1%	69.4%
2026-10-11T14:26:16+00:00	55.3%	19.0%	45.6%	27.1%	69.4%
2026-10-11T15:12:15+00:00	55.3%	16.1%	45.6%	27.1%	69.4%
2026-10-11T15:57:21+00:00	55.3%	16.1%	45.6%	27.1%	69.4%
2026-10-11T16:42:28+00:00	55.3%	16.1%	45.6%	27.1%	69.4%
2026-10-11T17:28:05+00:00	55.3%	16.1%	40.4%	27.1%	69.4%
2026-10-11T18:13:15+00:00	55.3%	16.1%	40.4%	27.1%	69.4%
2026-10-11T18:58:21+00:00	55.3%	16.1%	40.4%	27.1%	69.4%
2026-10-11T19:43:35+00:00	50.8%	16.1%	40.4%	42.1%	65.6%
2026-10-11T20:28:43+00:00	50.8%	16.1%	40.4%	42.1%	65.6%
2026-10-11T21:13:56+00:00	50.8%	16.1%	40.4%	42.1%	65.6%
2026-10-11T21:59:03+00:00	50.8%	16.1%	40.4%	42.1%	65.6%
2026-10-11T22:44:17+00:00	50.8%	16.1%	40.4%	42.1%	65.6%
2026-10-11T23:29:39+00:00	50.8%	16.1%	21.4%	42.1%	65.5%
2026-10-12T00:14:48+00:00	50.8%	16.1%	21.4%	42.1%	65.5%
2026-10-12T01:00:17+00:00	50.8%	16.1%	21.4%	42.1%	65.5%
2026-10-12T01:45:25+00:00	55.3%	16.1%	21.4%	42.1%	65.5%
2026-10-12T02:30:33+00:00	55.3%	16.1%	21.4%	42.1%	65.5%
2026-10-12T03:15:41+00:00	55.3%	16.1%	21.4%	42.1%	65.5%
2026-10-12T04:02:08+00:00	55.3%	16.1%	21.4%	42.1%	65.5%
2026-10-12T04:47:17+00:00	55.3%	16.1%	21.4%	42.1%	65.5%
2026-10-12T05:32:24+00:00	55.3%	16.1%	35.4%	42.1%	65.5%
2026-10-12T06:17:31+00:00	55.3%	16.1%	35.4%	42.1%	65.5%
2026-10-12T07:02:37+00:00	55.3%	16.1%	35.4%	42.1%	65.5%
2026-10-12T07:49:13+00:00	31.2%	16.1%	35.4%	37.8%	51.4%
2026-10-12T08:34:35+00:00	31.2%	16.1%	35.4%	37.8%	51.4%
2026-10-12T09:19:40+00:00	31.2%	16.1%	35.4%	37.8%	51.4%
2026-10-12T10:05:02+00:00	31.2%	16.1%	35.4%	37.8%	51.4%
2026-10-12T10:50:14+00:00	31.2%	16.1%	35.4%	37.8%	51.4%
2026-10-12T11:35:42+00:00	31.2%	16.1%	16.8%	37.8%	51.4%
2026-10-12T12:20:52+00:00	31.2%	10.6%	16.8%	37.8%	51.4%
2026-10-12T13:06:00+00:00	31.2%	10.6%	16.8%	37.8%	51.4%
2026-10-12T13:51:12+00:00	55.7%	10.6%	16.8%	37.8%	51.4%
2026-10-12T14:41:20+00:00	55.7%	10.6%	17.0%	37.8%	51.4%
2026-10-12T15:27:51+00:00	55.7%	10.6%	17.0%	37.8%	51.4%
2026-10-12T16:12:59+00:00	55.7%	5.0%	17.0%	37.8%	51.4%
2026-10-12T16:58:09+00:00	55.7%	5.0%	25.4%	37.8%	51.4%
2026-10-12T17:43:16+00:00	55.7%	5.0%	25.4%	37.8%	51.4%
2026-10-12T18:28:22+00:00	55.7%	5.0%	25.4%	37.8%	51.4%
2026-10-12T19:13:29+00:00	55.7%	5.0%	25.4%	37.8%	51.4%
2026-10-12T19:58:39+00:00	63.5%	5.0%	25.4%	40.4%	48.0%
2026-10-12T20:43:46+00:00	63.5%	5.0%	25.4%	40.4%	48.0%
2026-10-12T21:28:52+00:00	63.5%	5.0%	25.4%	40.4%	48.0%
2026-10-12T22:13:59+00:00	63.5%	5.0%	25.4%	40.4%	48.0%
2026-10-12T22:59:14+00:00	63.5%	5.0%	39.4%	40.4%	48.0%
2026-10-12T23:44:21+00:00	63.5%	5.0%	39.4%	40.4%	48.0%
2026-10-13T00:29:27+00:00	63.5%	5.0%	39.4%	40.4%	48.0%
2026-10-13T01:14:43+00:00	63.5%	5.0%	39.4%	40.4%	48.0%
2026-10-13T01:59:51+00:00	63.5%	5.0%	39.4%	40.4%	48.0%
2026-10-13T02:44:59+00:00	63.5%	5.0%	39.4%	40.4%	48.0%
2026-10-13T03:30:05+00:00	63.5%	5.0%	39.4%	40.4%	48.0%
2026-10-13T15:41:57+00:00	45.7%	9.7%	10.3%	45.2%	45.0%
2026-10-13T16:27:06+00:00	45.7%	9.7%	10.3%	45.2%	45.0%
2026-10-13T17:12:14+00:00	45.7%	9.7%	15.4%	45.2%	45.0%
2026-10-13T17:57:20+00:00	45.7%	9.7%	15.4%	45.2%	45.0%
2026-10-13T18:42:25+00:00	45.7%	9.7%	15.4%	45.2%	45.0%
2026-10-13T19:27:31+00:00	51.7%	9.7%	15.4%	45.2%	55.0%
2026-10-13T20:12:40+00:00	51.7%	9.7%	15.4%	45.2%	55.0%
2026-10-13T20:57:46+00:00	51.7%	9.7%	15.4%	45.2%	55.0%
2026-10-13T21:43:20+00:00	51.7%	9.7%	15.4%	45.2%	55.0%
2026-10-13T22:28:28+00:00	51.7%	9.7%	15.4%	56.4%	55.0%
2026-10-13T23:13:40+00:00	51.7%	9.7%	16.0%	56.4%	55.0%
2026-10-13T23:58:49+00:00	51.7%	9.7%	16.0%	56.4%	55.0%
2026-10-14T00:43:56+00:00	51.7%	9.7%	16.0%	56.4%	55.0%
2026-10-14T01:29:15+00:00	61.1%	9.7%	16.0%	56.4%	55.0%
2026-10-14T02:14:22+00:00	61.1%	9.7%	16.0%	56.4%	55.0%
2026-10-16T04:25:17+00:00	44.1%	29.4%	8.3%	54.9%	23.1%
2026-10-16T05:10:35+00:00	44.1%	29.4%	22.9%	54.9%	23.1%
2026-10-16T05:55:59+00:00	44.1%	29.4%	22.9%	54.9%	23.1%
2026-10-16T06:41:10+00:00	44.1%	29.4%	22.9%	54.9%	23.1%
2026-10-16T07:26:19+00:00	52.0%	29.4%	22.9%	54.9%	21.3%
2026-10-16T08:11:30+00:00	52.0%	29.4%	22.9%	54.9%	21.3%
2026-10-16T08:56:39+00:00	52.0%	29.4%	22.9%	54.9%	21.3%
2026-10-16T09:41:44+00:00	52.0%	29.4%	22.9%	54.9%	21.3%
2026-10-16T10:27:00+00:00	52.0%	29.4%	22.9%	54.9%	21.3%
2026-10-16T11:12:28+00:00	52.0%	36.7%	23.5%	54.9%	21.3%
2026-10-16T11:57:44+00:00	52.0%	36.7%	23.5%	54.9%	21.3%
2026-10-16T12:42:52+00:00	52.0%	36.7%	23.5%	54.9%	21.3%
2026-10-16T13:29:06+00:00	52.0%	36.7%	23.5%	59.6%	21.3%
2026-10-16T14:20:02+00:00	52.0%	36.7%	23.5%	59.6%	21.4%
2026-10-16T15:05:51+00:00	52.0%	44.5%	23.5%	59.6%	21.4%
2026-10-16T15:50:59+00:00	52.0%	44.5%	23.5%	59.6%	21.4%
2026-10-16T16:36:15+00:00	52.0%	44.5%	23.5%	59.6%	21.4%
2026-10-16T17:21:33+00:00	52.0%	44.5%	15.1%	59.6%	21.4%
2026-10-16T18:06:40+00:00	52.0%	44.5%	15.1%	59.6%	21.4%
2026-10-16T18:51:47+00:00	52.0%	44.5%	15.1%	59.6%	21.4%
2026-10-16T19:37:20+00:00	41.0%	44.5%	15.1%	59.6%	24.8%
2026-10-16T20:22:43+00:00	41.0%	44.5%	15.1%	59.6%	24.8%
2026-10-16T21:07:49+00:00	41.0%	44.5%	15.1%	59.6%	24.8%
2026-10-16T21:52:56+00:00	41.0%	44.5%	15.1%	59.6%	24.8%
2026-10-16T22:38:11+00:00	41.0%	44.5%	15.1%	56.4%	24.8%
2026-10-16T23:23:40+00:00	41.0%	44.5%	12.8%	56.4%	24.8%
2026-10-17T00:09:45+00:00	41.0%	44.5%	12.8%	56.4%	24.8%
2026-10-17T00:55:01+00:00	41.0%	44.5%	12.8%	56.4%	24.8%
2026-10-17T01:40:14+00:00	26.3%	44.5%	12.8%	56.4%	24.8%
2026-10-17T02:25:24+00:00	26.3%	44.5%	12.8%	56.4%	24.8%
2026-10-17T03:10:32+00:00	26.3%	44.5%	12.8%	56.4%	24.8%
2026-10-17T03:55:43+00:00	26.3%	44.5%	12.8%	56.4%	24.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	56%	80.1°F	3.7°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.3181
NWS forecast	56%	80.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-16 14:00	0.3181
IFS Ensemble	44%	79.0°F	3.6°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.1980
National Blend	41%	79.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-16 06:00	0.1681
AIFS Single	26%	77.0°F	4.0°F	2026-10-16 18:00	0.0692
ICON	25%	77.1°F	3.5°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.0615
WeatherNext 2	13%	76.2°F	2.9°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.0164

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KLAS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLAS-20261017-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 11 · 03:45 UTC

Original listing: Las Vegas high ≥ 80°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗