KLAS / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Las Vegas, NVHigh ≥ 81°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 11 · 10:34 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

64%

58%

35%

26%

Consensus

48%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 45.2¢Risks 45.25u

EPSNO 54.8¢Risks 54.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +54.75u · EPS −54.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	3.3%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—	57.4%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	81.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	47.3%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	—	—	—	41.5%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	73.0%	—	—	—	—	52.7%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	61.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	70.3%	—	—	—	—	32.5%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	77.6%	—	—	—	—	45.2%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	—	—	—	28.3%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	6.5%	—	—	—	—	28.3%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	—	—	—	25.4%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	—	—	—	42.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	66.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	37.3%	—	—	—	—	45.9%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	55.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	53.0%	—	11.5%	—	—	39.2%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	48.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	41.3%	—	55.6%	—	—	29.6%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	41.8%	—	76.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	42.9%	—	53.2%	—	—	18.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	46.0%	—	42.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	32.4%	—	54.7%	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	35.2%	—	46.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	30.5%	52.1%	42.3%	4.9%	—	16.6%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	34.6%	—	53.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	20.4%	48.5%	50.0%	32.3%	—	11.7%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	46.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	38.0%	42.4%	50.0%	38.7%	—	13.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	51.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	32.3%	33.7%	51.6%	26.1%	—	9.7%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	29.0%	—	29.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	30.8%	48.3%	38.5%	33.0%	—	10.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	34.2%	2.5%	36.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	15.1%	25.5%	30.7%	43.0%	—	7.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	27.1%	25.7%	50.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	26.6%	15.4%	23.7%	50.9%	—	7.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	19.0%	18.4%	26.1%	—	—	0.2%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	14.2%	38.5%	14.7%	44.2%	—	6.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	16.4%	29.9%	28.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	5.8%	25.1%	15.1%	38.8%	—	5.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	4.5%	11.1%	5.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	11.4%	23.8%	0.5%	45.6%	—	7.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	4.0%	28.6%	10.2%	0.1%	—	4.8%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	2.5%	31.0%	1.1%	52.3%	—	4.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	1.7%	7.0%	2.2%	10.2%	—	4.5%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	1.8%	18.2%	0.2%	15.1%	0.2%	3.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	1.8%	12.8%	0.1%	10.3%	—	1.9%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	6.1%	8.9%	0.3%	39.4%	13.4%	5.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	3.0%	4.3%	0.1%	25.3%	—	2.1%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	2.1%	2.7%	0.2%	3.2%	10.2%	0.7%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	1.4%	0.2%	0.1%	14.4%	—	0.9%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	2.0%	2.2%	0.2%	8.9%	8.3%	1.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.6%	2.8%	0.1%	6.3%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	64%	82.4°F	5.3°F	2026-10-10 18:00	0.4096
AIFS Single	58%	81.7°F	5.6°F	2026-10-11 00:00	0.3422
National Blend	56%	81.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-11 00:00	0.3136
IFS HRES	35%	78.1°F	6.3°F	2026-10-11 00:00	0.1246
IFS Ensemble	26%	77.8°F	4.3°F	2026-10-10 00:00	0.0702

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 81°F · KLAS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLAS-20261018-TMAX-GE81
Opened Oct 11 · 07:32 UTC

Original listing: Las Vegas high ≥ 81°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗