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KLAS / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Las Vegas, NVHigh ≥ 81°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 11 · 10:34 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
64%
AIFS
58%
HRES
35%
EPS
26%
Consensus
48%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 45.2¢Risks 45.25u
VS
EPSNO 54.8¢Risks 54.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +54.75u · EPS −54.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 58.5% · 2026-10-11T07:32:52+00:00AIFS Single: 58.5% · 2026-10-11T08:18:05+00:00AIFS Single: 58.5% · 2026-10-11T09:03:13+00:00AIFS Single: 58.5% · 2026-10-11T09:48:19+00:00AIFS Single: 58.5% · 2026-10-11T10:34:26+00:00IFS Ensemble: 26.5% · 2026-10-11T07:32:52+00:00IFS Ensemble: 26.5% · 2026-10-11T08:18:05+00:00IFS Ensemble: 26.5% · 2026-10-11T09:03:13+00:00IFS Ensemble: 26.5% · 2026-10-11T09:48:19+00:00IFS Ensemble: 26.5% · 2026-10-11T10:34:26+00:00WeatherNext 2: 64.0% · 2026-10-11T07:32:52+00:00WeatherNext 2: 64.0% · 2026-10-11T08:18:05+00:00WeatherNext 2: 64.0% · 2026-10-11T09:03:13+00:00WeatherNext 2: 64.0% · 2026-10-11T09:48:19+00:00WeatherNext 2: 64.0% · 2026-10-11T10:34:26+00:00IFS HRES: 35.3% · 2026-10-11T07:32:52+00:00IFS HRES: 35.3% · 2026-10-11T08:18:05+00:00IFS HRES: 35.3% · 2026-10-11T09:03:13+00:00IFS HRES: 35.3% · 2026-10-11T09:48:19+00:00IFS HRES: 35.3% · 2026-10-11T10:34:26+00:0010-11 07:3210-11 09:0310-11 10:34
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRES
2026-10-11T10:34:26+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRES
2026-10-11T07:32:52+00:0058.5%26.5%64.0%35.3%
2026-10-11T08:18:05+00:0058.5%26.5%64.0%35.3%
2026-10-11T09:03:13+00:0058.5%26.5%64.0%35.3%
2026-10-11T09:48:19+00:0058.5%26.5%64.0%35.3%
2026-10-11T10:34:26+00:0058.5%26.5%64.0%35.3%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
WeatherNext 264%82.4°F5.3°F2026-10-10 18:000.4096
AIFS Single58%81.7°F5.6°F2026-10-11 00:000.3422
National Blend56%81.0°F3.3°F2026-10-11 00:000.3136
IFS HRES35%78.1°F6.3°F2026-10-11 00:000.1246
IFS Ensemble26%77.8°F4.3°F2026-10-10 00:000.0702

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 81°F · KLAS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLAS-20261018-TMAX-GE81
Opened Oct 11 · 07:32 UTC

Original listing: Las Vegas high ≥ 81°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗