KLAS / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Las Vegas, NVHigh ≥ 82°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 19 · 06:47 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

63%

41%

40%

30%

14%

Consensus

40%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 38.1¢Risks 38.15u

ICONNO 61.9¢Risks 61.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +61.85u · ICON −61.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	2.2%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	66.5%	—	—	—	—	40.0%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	63.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	70.3%	—	—	—	—	51.1%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	59.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	—	—	—	32.5%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	69.4%	—	—	—	—	41.0%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	—	24.4%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	—	29.2%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	—	—	—	28.3%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	—	—	—	46.3%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	33.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	40.2%	—	—	—	—	46.2%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	55.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	52.8%	—	—	—	—	42.7%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	—	41.3%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	44.6%	—	9.3%	—	—	30.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	48.1%	—	43.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	37.6%	—	—	—	—	32.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	38.6%	—	57.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	34.2%	—	16.4%	—	—	36.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	35.1%	—	62.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	26.0%	2.1%	61.3%	—	—	26.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	46.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	36.9%	49.3%	64.4%	2.4%	—	26.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	58.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	35.7%	39.9%	49.3%	34.3%	—	26.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	45.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	35.1%	49.2%	57.6%	65.6%	—	29.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	37.0%	—	37.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	28.1%	31.6%	33.7%	46.8%	—	16.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	49.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	25.8%	17.8%	43.4%	59.9%	—	12.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	23.9%	2.7%	50.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	22.1%	38.8%	41.3%	54.4%	—	15.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	21.5%	38.5%	49.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	10.2%	34.7%	36.4%	60.9%	—	17.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	12.7%	25.3%	19.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	10.7%	19.0%	15.9%	57.7%	—	13.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	10.5%	21.1%	20.4%	—	—	17.7%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	7.4%	21.9%	19.7%	63.1%	—	19.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	7.2%	10.6%	16.3%	—	—	17.6%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	7.0%	26.4%	15.5%	25.5%	0.0%	17.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	7.9%	19.8%	12.3%	0.0%	—	18.3%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	14.0%	18.3%	16.8%	28.0%	16.0%	19.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	8.2%	10.8%	18.3%	34.7%	—	16.0%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	8.5%	19.9%	10.0%	9.5%	—	16.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	4.3%	13.5%	11.5%	24.8%	—	15.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	7.4%	19.1%	14.1%	39.4%	14.1%	15.7%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	5.0%	24.2%	8.6%	35.0%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	4.4%	22.2%	7.8%	24.5%	5.9%	13.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	3.4%	19.2%	8.0%	26.0%	—	11.2%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	3.1%	19.2%	4.1%	26.3%	10.2%	8.9%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	2.6%	21.6%	2.8%	19.2%	—	9.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	63%	82.7°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	0.3931
NWS forecast	59%	82.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 03:00	0.3481
National Blend	41%	81.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 00:00	0.1697
AIFS Single	41%	80.6°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	0.1681
WeatherNext 2	40%	80.8°F	2.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	0.1640
IFS Ensemble	30%	79.5°F	3.8°F	2026-10-18 00:00	0.0906
ICON	14%	77.6°F	3.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	0.0185

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KLAS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLAS-20261019-TMAX-GE82
Opened Oct 14 · 03:00 UTC

Original listing: Las Vegas high ≥ 82°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗