KLAS / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Las Vegas, NVHigh ≥ 82°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 19 · 06:47 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

63%

41%

40%

30%

14%

Consensus

40%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 38.1¢Risks 38.15u

ICONNO 61.9¢Risks 61.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +61.85u · ICON −61.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:47:25+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-14T03:00:17+00:00	65.4%	5.0%	56.1%	74.9%	69.0%
2026-10-14T03:45:42+00:00	65.4%	5.0%	56.1%	74.9%	69.0%
2026-10-14T04:30:48+00:00	65.4%	5.0%	56.1%	74.9%	69.0%
2026-10-14T05:15:56+00:00	65.4%	5.0%	56.1%	74.9%	69.0%
2026-10-14T06:01:03+00:00	65.4%	5.0%	56.1%	74.9%	69.0%
2026-10-14T06:46:21+00:00	65.4%	5.0%	56.1%	74.9%	69.0%
2026-10-14T07:31:30+00:00	58.0%	5.0%	56.1%	74.9%	51.4%
2026-10-14T08:16:40+00:00	58.0%	5.0%	56.1%	74.9%	51.4%
2026-10-14T09:01:49+00:00	58.0%	5.0%	56.1%	74.9%	51.4%
2026-10-14T09:46:56+00:00	58.0%	5.0%	56.1%	74.9%	51.4%
2026-10-14T10:35:02+00:00	58.0%	5.0%	56.1%	54.8%	51.4%
2026-10-14T11:21:06+00:00	58.0%	14.6%	44.2%	54.8%	51.4%
2026-10-14T12:06:16+00:00	58.0%	14.6%	44.2%	54.8%	51.4%
2026-10-14T12:51:24+00:00	58.0%	14.6%	44.2%	54.8%	51.4%
2026-10-14T13:36:32+00:00	60.4%	14.6%	44.2%	54.8%	51.4%
2026-10-14T14:26:53+00:00	60.3%	14.6%	44.2%	54.8%	51.3%
2026-10-16T15:05:51+00:00	39.9%	21.4%	22.9%	65.6%	23.3%
2026-10-16T15:50:59+00:00	39.9%	21.3%	22.9%	65.6%	23.3%
2026-10-16T16:36:15+00:00	39.9%	21.3%	22.9%	65.6%	23.3%
2026-10-16T17:21:33+00:00	39.9%	21.3%	16.4%	65.6%	23.3%
2026-10-16T18:06:40+00:00	39.9%	21.3%	16.4%	65.6%	23.3%
2026-10-16T18:51:47+00:00	39.9%	21.3%	16.4%	65.6%	23.3%
2026-10-16T19:37:20+00:00	35.4%	21.3%	16.4%	65.6%	28.1%
2026-10-16T20:22:43+00:00	35.4%	21.3%	16.4%	65.6%	28.1%
2026-10-16T21:07:49+00:00	35.4%	21.3%	16.4%	65.6%	28.1%
2026-10-16T21:52:56+00:00	35.4%	21.3%	16.4%	65.6%	28.1%
2026-10-16T22:38:11+00:00	35.4%	21.3%	16.4%	49.1%	28.1%
2026-10-16T23:23:40+00:00	35.4%	21.3%	20.3%	49.1%	28.1%
2026-10-17T00:09:45+00:00	35.4%	21.3%	20.3%	49.1%	28.1%
2026-10-17T00:55:01+00:00	35.4%	21.3%	20.3%	49.1%	28.1%
2026-10-17T01:40:14+00:00	35.4%	21.3%	20.3%	49.1%	28.1%
2026-10-17T02:25:24+00:00	35.4%	21.3%	20.3%	49.1%	28.1%
2026-10-17T03:10:32+00:00	35.4%	21.3%	20.3%	49.1%	28.1%
2026-10-17T03:55:43+00:00	35.4%	21.3%	20.3%	49.1%	28.1%
2026-10-18T04:15:01+00:00	42.2%	28.1%	29.2%	62.4%	16.8%
2026-10-18T05:00:16+00:00	42.2%	28.1%	27.0%	62.4%	16.8%
2026-10-18T05:45:23+00:00	42.2%	28.1%	27.0%	62.4%	16.8%
2026-10-18T06:30:29+00:00	42.2%	28.1%	27.0%	62.4%	16.8%
2026-10-18T07:15:40+00:00	42.2%	28.1%	27.0%	62.4%	16.8%
2026-10-18T08:01:59+00:00	43.9%	28.1%	27.0%	56.4%	12.8%
2026-10-18T08:47:14+00:00	43.9%	28.1%	27.0%	56.4%	12.8%
2026-10-18T09:32:22+00:00	43.9%	28.1%	27.0%	56.4%	12.8%
2026-10-18T10:17:30+00:00	43.9%	28.1%	27.0%	56.4%	12.8%
2026-10-18T11:03:03+00:00	43.9%	31.0%	32.8%	56.4%	12.8%
2026-10-18T11:48:20+00:00	43.9%	31.0%	32.8%	56.4%	12.8%
2026-10-18T12:33:58+00:00	43.9%	31.0%	32.8%	56.4%	12.8%
2026-10-18T13:19:04+00:00	43.9%	31.0%	32.8%	56.4%	12.8%
2026-10-18T14:04:16+00:00	36.1%	31.3%	32.8%	56.4%	13.0%
2026-10-18T14:56:13+00:00	36.1%	31.3%	32.8%	56.4%	13.0%
2026-10-18T15:41:41+00:00	36.1%	30.1%	32.8%	56.4%	13.0%
2026-10-18T16:27:01+00:00	36.1%	30.1%	32.8%	56.4%	13.0%
2026-10-18T17:12:11+00:00	36.1%	30.1%	18.6%	56.4%	13.0%
2026-10-18T17:57:39+00:00	36.1%	30.1%	18.6%	56.4%	13.0%
2026-10-18T18:42:50+00:00	36.1%	30.1%	18.6%	56.4%	13.0%
2026-10-18T19:28:02+00:00	45.0%	30.1%	18.6%	62.7%	13.6%
2026-10-18T20:13:11+00:00	45.0%	30.1%	18.6%	62.7%	13.6%
2026-10-18T20:58:19+00:00	45.0%	30.1%	18.6%	62.7%	13.6%
2026-10-18T21:43:28+00:00	45.0%	30.1%	18.6%	62.7%	13.6%
2026-10-18T22:28:35+00:00	45.0%	30.1%	18.6%	62.7%	13.6%
2026-10-18T23:13:47+00:00	45.0%	30.1%	37.9%	62.7%	13.6%
2026-10-18T23:58:57+00:00	45.0%	30.1%	37.9%	62.7%	13.6%
2026-10-19T00:44:12+00:00	45.0%	30.1%	37.9%	62.7%	13.6%
2026-10-19T01:29:39+00:00	41.0%	30.1%	37.9%	62.7%	13.6%
2026-10-19T02:14:48+00:00	41.0%	30.1%	37.9%	62.7%	13.6%
2026-10-19T03:00:00+00:00	41.0%	30.1%	37.9%	62.7%	13.6%
2026-10-19T03:45:08+00:00	41.0%	30.1%	37.9%	62.7%	13.6%
2026-10-19T04:31:37+00:00	41.0%	30.1%	37.9%	62.7%	13.6%
2026-10-19T05:17:09+00:00	41.0%	30.1%	40.5%	62.7%	13.6%
2026-10-19T06:02:17+00:00	41.0%	30.1%	40.5%	62.7%	13.6%
2026-10-19T06:47:25+00:00	41.0%	30.1%	40.5%	62.7%	13.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	63%	82.7°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	0.3931
NWS forecast	59%	82.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 03:00	0.3481
National Blend	41%	81.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 00:00	0.1697
AIFS Single	41%	80.6°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	0.1681
WeatherNext 2	40%	80.8°F	2.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	0.1640
IFS Ensemble	30%	79.5°F	3.8°F	2026-10-18 00:00	0.0906
ICON	14%	77.6°F	3.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	0.0185

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KLAS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLAS-20261019-TMAX-GE82
Opened Oct 14 · 03:00 UTC

Original listing: Las Vegas high ≥ 82°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗