KLAS / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Las Vegas, NVHigh ≥ 84°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 15 · 03:16 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

39%

26%

23%

23%

Consensus

20%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 21.2¢Risks 21.20u

EPSNO 78.8¢Risks 78.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +78.80u · EPS −78.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	1.1%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	—	—	—	30.1%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	—	—	—	40.5%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	—	—	—	23.6%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	59.5%	—	—	—	—	31.1%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	—	—	—	16.9%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	—	—	—	20.8%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	—	—	—	20.1%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	12.2%	—	—	—	—	35.9%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	30.0%	—	—	—	—	35.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	43.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	—	—	—	31.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	39.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	32.4%	—	—	—	—	30.3%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	33.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	5.2%	—	—	20.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	36.1%	—	32.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	26.4%	—	—	—	—	22.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	27.1%	—	44.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	23.1%	—	9.6%	—	—	24.6%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	23.7%	—	49.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	16.3%	0.9%	48.0%	—	—	16.3%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	33.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	24.6%	35.6%	50.7%	1.0%	—	16.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	44.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	23.2%	26.6%	35.0%	22.1%	—	15.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	31.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	22.2%	34.4%	42.4%	50.8%	—	17.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	23.5%	—	23.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	16.4%	18.9%	20.6%	31.6%	—	8.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	17.3%	—	33.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	14.3%	9.0%	27.9%	43.4%	—	6.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	12.8%	0.9%	34.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	11.3%	23.4%	25.5%	37.1%	—	7.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	10.8%	22.9%	31.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	4.1%	19.6%	20.9%	42.7%	—	8.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	5.3%	12.7%	8.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	4.2%	8.6%	6.8%	38.5%	—	5.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	4.0%	9.6%	9.2%	—	—	7.6%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	2.5%	9.8%	8.6%	42.8%	—	8.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	2.3%	3.8%	6.5%	—	—	7.2%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	2.1%	11.9%	5.9%	11.4%	0.0%	7.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	2.4%	7.9%	4.2%	0.0%	—	7.1%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	4.8%	6.8%	6.1%	12.1%	5.7%	7.6%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	2.3%	3.3%	6.6%	16.0%	—	5.5%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	2.3%	7.1%	2.8%	2.6%	—	5.5%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	4.0%	3.2%	9.2%	—	4.6%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	1.7%	6.1%	4.0%	17.3%	4.0%	4.6%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	1.0%	8.1%	2.0%	13.9%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	0.7%	6.8%	1.6%	7.8%	1.1%	3.2%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	5.1%	1.5%	8.0%	—	2.4%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	4.8%	0.6%	7.7%	2.0%	1.6%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	5.3%	0.3%	4.5%	—	1.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	54%	84.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-14 14:00	0.2894
AIFS Single	39%	82.1°F	5.0°F	2026-10-14 18:00	0.1513
ICON	26%	79.7°F	5.9°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.0681
National Blend	24%	82.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-14 06:00	0.0566
IFS HRES	23%	79.3°F	5.8°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.0543
WeatherNext 2	23%	80.5°F	4.1°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.0543
IFS Ensemble	4%	76.8°F	3.7°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0012

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 84°F · KLAS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLAS-20261019-TMAX-GE84
Opened Oct 13 · 04:16 UTC

Original listing: Las Vegas high ≥ 84°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗