KLAS / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Las Vegas, NVHigh ≥ 84°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 15 · 03:16 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

39%

26%

23%

23%

Consensus

20%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 21.2¢Risks 21.20u

EPSNO 78.8¢Risks 78.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +78.80u · EPS −78.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-15T03:16:40+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-13T04:16:37+00:00	54.3%	1.5%	50.8%	48.1%	59.6%
2026-10-13T05:01:48+00:00	54.3%	1.5%	46.8%	48.1%	59.6%
2026-10-13T05:46:55+00:00	54.3%	1.5%	46.8%	48.1%	59.6%
2026-10-13T06:32:14+00:00	54.3%	1.5%	46.8%	48.1%	59.6%
2026-10-13T07:17:20+00:00	54.3%	1.5%	46.8%	48.1%	59.6%
2026-10-13T08:04:27+00:00	48.5%	1.5%	46.8%	53.6%	50.6%
2026-10-13T08:49:42+00:00	48.5%	1.5%	46.8%	53.6%	50.6%
2026-10-13T09:34:48+00:00	48.5%	1.5%	46.8%	53.6%	50.6%
2026-10-13T10:20:00+00:00	48.5%	1.5%	46.8%	53.6%	50.6%
2026-10-13T11:05:29+00:00	48.5%	1.7%	39.6%	53.6%	50.6%
2026-10-13T11:50:45+00:00	48.5%	1.7%	39.6%	53.6%	50.6%
2026-10-13T12:35:51+00:00	48.5%	1.7%	39.6%	53.6%	50.6%
2026-10-13T13:20:57+00:00	48.5%	1.7%	39.6%	53.6%	50.6%
2026-10-13T14:06:06+00:00	47.0%	1.7%	39.7%	53.6%	51.1%
2026-10-13T14:56:07+00:00	47.0%	1.4%	39.7%	53.6%	51.1%
2026-10-13T15:41:57+00:00	47.0%	1.4%	39.7%	53.6%	51.1%
2026-10-13T16:27:06+00:00	47.0%	1.4%	39.7%	53.6%	51.1%
2026-10-13T17:12:14+00:00	47.0%	1.4%	39.7%	53.6%	51.1%
2026-10-13T17:57:20+00:00	47.0%	1.4%	39.7%	53.6%	51.1%
2026-10-13T18:42:25+00:00	47.0%	1.4%	39.7%	53.6%	51.1%
2026-10-13T19:27:31+00:00	48.5%	1.4%	39.7%	53.6%	58.4%
2026-10-13T20:12:40+00:00	48.5%	1.4%	39.7%	53.6%	58.4%
2026-10-13T20:57:46+00:00	48.5%	1.4%	39.7%	53.6%	58.4%
2026-10-13T21:43:20+00:00	48.5%	1.4%	39.7%	53.6%	58.4%
2026-10-13T22:28:28+00:00	48.5%	1.4%	39.7%	64.3%	58.4%
2026-10-13T23:13:40+00:00	48.5%	1.4%	38.9%	64.3%	58.4%
2026-10-13T23:58:49+00:00	48.5%	1.4%	38.9%	64.3%	58.4%
2026-10-14T00:43:56+00:00	48.5%	1.4%	38.9%	64.3%	58.4%
2026-10-14T01:29:15+00:00	50.8%	1.4%	38.9%	64.3%	58.4%
2026-10-14T02:14:22+00:00	50.8%	1.4%	38.9%	64.3%	58.4%
2026-10-14T15:12:49+00:00	44.4%	3.5%	26.3%	41.1%	38.1%
2026-10-14T15:58:00+00:00	44.4%	3.5%	26.3%	41.1%	38.1%
2026-10-14T16:43:07+00:00	44.4%	3.5%	26.3%	41.1%	38.1%
2026-10-14T17:28:17+00:00	44.4%	3.5%	24.8%	41.1%	38.1%
2026-10-14T18:13:24+00:00	44.4%	3.5%	24.8%	41.1%	38.1%
2026-10-14T18:58:30+00:00	44.4%	3.5%	24.8%	41.1%	38.1%
2026-10-14T19:43:41+00:00	40.5%	3.5%	24.8%	23.3%	26.1%
2026-10-14T20:28:53+00:00	40.5%	3.5%	24.8%	23.3%	26.1%
2026-10-14T21:13:59+00:00	40.5%	3.5%	24.8%	23.3%	26.1%
2026-10-14T21:59:06+00:00	40.5%	3.5%	24.8%	23.3%	26.1%
2026-10-14T22:44:13+00:00	40.5%	3.5%	24.8%	23.3%	26.1%
2026-10-14T23:29:35+00:00	40.5%	3.5%	23.3%	23.3%	26.1%
2026-10-15T00:15:28+00:00	40.5%	3.5%	23.3%	23.3%	26.1%
2026-10-15T01:01:13+00:00	40.5%	3.5%	23.3%	23.3%	26.1%
2026-10-15T01:46:24+00:00	38.9%	3.5%	23.3%	23.3%	26.1%
2026-10-15T02:31:32+00:00	38.9%	3.5%	23.3%	23.3%	26.1%
2026-10-15T03:16:40+00:00	38.9%	3.5%	23.3%	23.3%	26.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	54%	84.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-14 14:00	0.2894
AIFS Single	39%	82.1°F	5.0°F	2026-10-14 18:00	0.1513
ICON	26%	79.7°F	5.9°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.0681
National Blend	24%	82.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-14 06:00	0.0566
IFS HRES	23%	79.3°F	5.8°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.0543
WeatherNext 2	23%	80.5°F	4.1°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.0543
IFS Ensemble	4%	76.8°F	3.7°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0012

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 84°F · KLAS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLAS-20261019-TMAX-GE84
Opened Oct 13 · 04:16 UTC

Original listing: Las Vegas high ≥ 84°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗