KLAS / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Las Vegas, NVHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST73%Oct 17 · 03:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

96%

85%

76%

74%

24%

Consensus

73%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 60.2¢Risks 60.20u

ICONNO 39.8¢Risks 39.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +39.80u · ICON −39.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	—	—	—	12.0%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	75.2%	—	—	—	—	61.5%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	84.1%	—	—	—	—	64.5%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	78.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—	52.1%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—	58.5%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	55.8%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	—	77.6%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	63.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	67.5%	—	—	—	—	72.6%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	78.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	—	—	—	70.4%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	65.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	52.2%	—	—	—	—	63.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	76.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	39.3%	—	—	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	57.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	36.8%	—	—	—	—	51.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	42.9%	—	79.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	39.2%	—	—	—	—	34.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	28.5%	—	—	19.3%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	6.0%	—	42.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	30.1%	—	—	37.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	8.6%	—	18.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	17.6%	11.1%	10.8%	—	—	26.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	8.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	4.7%	61.8%	16.6%	11.5%	—	29.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	82.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	4.6%	70.9%	79.0%	64.3%	—	43.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	73.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	43.9%	48.5%	67.7%	87.1%	—	54.6%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	37.7%	—	59.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	25.5%	4.3%	61.8%	41.3%	—	51.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	46.7%	—	68.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	30.0%	76.2%	71.4%	85.7%	—	51.7%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	43.2%	10.7%	61.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	37.9%	19.6%	67.0%	79.2%	—	44.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	42.9%	3.9%	59.8%	—	—	60.7%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	53.7%	11.9%	69.5%	77.0%	—	67.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	56.6%	40.6%	60.3%	—	—	64.8%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	63.4%	60.6%	58.7%	82.3%	—	72.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	62.8%	36.3%	45.0%	—	—	72.6%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	65.1%	47.9%	56.1%	95.1%	0.0%	73.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	66.5%	40.6%	65.5%	—	—	68.4%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	62.9%	44.5%	72.7%	91.0%	—	77.8%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	61.1%	14.8%	71.4%	0.8%	—	78.6%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	68.0%	55.8%	78.5%	93.5%	0.0%	84.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	67.5%	77.5%	72.7%	95.5%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	61.1%	75.4%	75.4%	93.7%	73.4%	82.6%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	57.7%	79.1%	80.0%	95.4%	—	75.2%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	56.7%	78.0%	80.9%	97.0%	79.0%	66.9%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	51.4%	89.6%	73.5%	92.4%	—	55.6%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	60.1%	92.7%	80.9%	95.3%	70.7%	73.2%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	67.5%	—	77.6%	92.5%	—	78.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	96%	85.4°F	5.0°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	85%	81.2°F	4.6°F	2026-10-16 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	76%	79.5°F	4.2°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	74%	78.9°F	3.7°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
National Blend	54%	77.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	77.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-16 14:00	Pending
ICON	24%	73.1°F	4.9°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KLAS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLAS-20261020-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 13 · 11:05 UTC

Original listing: Las Vegas high ≥ 77°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗