KLAS / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Las Vegas, NVHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST73%Oct 17 · 03:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

96%

85%

76%

74%

24%

Consensus

73%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 60.2¢Risks 60.20u

ICONNO 39.8¢Risks 39.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +39.80u · ICON −39.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T03:55:43+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-13T11:05:29+00:00	40.9%	82.8%	44.4%	51.3%	39.3%
2026-10-13T11:50:45+00:00	40.9%	82.8%	44.4%	51.3%	39.3%
2026-10-13T12:35:51+00:00	40.9%	82.8%	44.4%	51.3%	39.3%
2026-10-13T13:20:57+00:00	40.9%	82.8%	44.4%	51.3%	39.3%
2026-10-13T14:06:06+00:00	25.5%	82.8%	44.4%	51.3%	39.3%
2026-10-13T14:56:07+00:00	25.5%	80.5%	44.4%	51.3%	39.3%
2026-10-13T15:41:57+00:00	25.5%	80.5%	44.4%	51.3%	39.3%
2026-10-13T16:27:06+00:00	25.5%	80.5%	44.4%	51.3%	39.3%
2026-10-13T17:12:14+00:00	25.5%	80.5%	47.6%	51.3%	39.3%
2026-10-13T17:57:20+00:00	25.5%	80.5%	47.6%	51.3%	39.3%
2026-10-13T18:42:25+00:00	25.5%	80.5%	47.6%	51.3%	39.3%
2026-10-13T19:27:31+00:00	17.3%	80.5%	47.6%	51.3%	73.4%
2026-10-13T20:12:40+00:00	17.3%	80.5%	47.6%	51.3%	73.4%
2026-10-13T20:57:46+00:00	17.3%	80.5%	47.6%	51.3%	73.4%
2026-10-13T21:43:20+00:00	17.3%	80.5%	47.6%	51.3%	73.4%
2026-10-13T22:28:28+00:00	17.3%	80.5%	47.6%	40.6%	73.4%
2026-10-13T23:13:40+00:00	17.3%	79.9%	47.6%	40.6%	73.4%
2026-10-13T23:58:49+00:00	17.3%	79.9%	47.6%	40.6%	73.4%
2026-10-14T00:43:56+00:00	17.3%	79.9%	47.6%	40.6%	73.4%
2026-10-14T01:29:15+00:00	15.5%	79.9%	47.6%	40.6%	73.4%
2026-10-14T02:14:22+00:00	15.5%	79.9%	47.6%	40.6%	73.4%
2026-10-14T03:00:18+00:00	15.5%	79.9%	47.6%	40.6%	73.4%
2026-10-14T03:45:42+00:00	15.5%	79.9%	47.6%	40.6%	73.4%
2026-10-14T04:30:48+00:00	15.5%	79.9%	47.6%	40.6%	73.4%
2026-10-14T05:15:56+00:00	15.5%	79.9%	47.6%	40.6%	73.4%
2026-10-14T06:01:03+00:00	15.5%	79.9%	47.6%	40.6%	73.4%
2026-10-14T06:46:21+00:00	15.5%	79.9%	47.6%	40.6%	73.4%
2026-10-14T07:31:30+00:00	17.3%	79.9%	47.6%	40.6%	82.5%
2026-10-14T08:16:40+00:00	17.3%	79.9%	47.6%	40.6%	82.5%
2026-10-14T09:01:49+00:00	17.3%	79.9%	47.6%	40.6%	82.5%
2026-10-14T09:46:56+00:00	17.3%	79.9%	47.6%	40.6%	82.5%
2026-10-14T10:35:02+00:00	17.3%	79.9%	47.6%	83.2%	82.5%
2026-10-14T11:21:06+00:00	17.3%	66.2%	34.7%	83.2%	82.5%
2026-10-14T12:06:16+00:00	17.3%	66.2%	34.7%	83.2%	82.5%
2026-10-14T12:51:24+00:00	17.3%	66.2%	34.7%	83.2%	82.5%
2026-10-14T13:36:32+00:00	64.0%	66.2%	34.7%	83.2%	82.5%
2026-10-14T14:26:53+00:00	64.5%	66.1%	35.0%	83.1%	82.5%
2026-10-14T15:12:49+00:00	64.5%	59.8%	35.0%	83.1%	82.5%
2026-10-14T15:58:00+00:00	64.5%	59.8%	35.0%	83.1%	82.5%
2026-10-14T16:43:07+00:00	64.5%	59.8%	35.0%	83.1%	82.5%
2026-10-14T17:28:17+00:00	64.5%	59.8%	48.3%	83.1%	82.5%
2026-10-14T18:13:24+00:00	64.5%	59.8%	48.3%	83.1%	82.5%
2026-10-14T18:58:30+00:00	64.5%	59.8%	48.3%	83.1%	82.5%
2026-10-14T19:43:41+00:00	73.6%	59.8%	48.3%	75.3%	68.5%
2026-10-14T20:28:53+00:00	73.6%	59.8%	48.3%	75.3%	68.5%
2026-10-14T21:13:59+00:00	73.6%	59.8%	48.3%	75.3%	68.5%
2026-10-14T21:59:06+00:00	73.6%	59.8%	48.3%	75.3%	68.5%
2026-10-14T22:44:13+00:00	73.6%	59.8%	48.3%	75.3%	68.5%
2026-10-14T23:29:35+00:00	73.6%	59.8%	47.4%	75.3%	68.5%
2026-10-15T00:15:28+00:00	73.6%	59.8%	47.4%	75.3%	68.5%
2026-10-15T01:01:13+00:00	73.6%	59.8%	47.4%	75.3%	68.5%
2026-10-15T01:46:24+00:00	68.5%	59.8%	47.4%	75.3%	68.5%
2026-10-15T02:31:32+00:00	68.5%	59.8%	47.4%	75.3%	68.5%
2026-10-15T03:16:40+00:00	68.5%	59.8%	47.4%	75.3%	68.5%
2026-10-15T04:02:43+00:00	68.5%	59.8%	47.4%	75.3%	68.5%
2026-10-15T04:48:13+00:00	68.5%	59.8%	47.4%	75.3%	68.5%
2026-10-15T05:33:24+00:00	68.5%	59.8%	44.0%	75.3%	68.5%
2026-10-15T06:18:31+00:00	68.5%	59.8%	44.0%	75.3%	68.5%
2026-10-15T07:03:42+00:00	68.5%	59.8%	44.0%	75.3%	68.5%
2026-10-15T07:50:42+00:00	57.2%	59.8%	44.0%	91.2%	15.6%
2026-10-15T08:35:54+00:00	57.2%	59.8%	44.0%	91.2%	15.6%
2026-10-15T09:21:48+00:00	57.2%	59.8%	44.0%	91.2%	15.6%
2026-10-15T10:07:44+00:00	57.2%	59.8%	44.0%	91.2%	15.6%
2026-10-15T10:53:52+00:00	57.2%	59.8%	56.8%	91.2%	15.6%
2026-10-15T11:39:43+00:00	57.2%	59.8%	56.8%	91.2%	15.6%
2026-10-15T12:24:59+00:00	57.2%	66.2%	56.8%	91.2%	15.6%
2026-10-15T13:10:42+00:00	57.2%	66.2%	56.8%	91.2%	15.6%
2026-10-15T13:55:56+00:00	77.2%	66.2%	56.8%	91.1%	16.2%
2026-10-15T14:48:28+00:00	77.2%	66.2%	56.8%	91.1%	16.2%
2026-10-15T15:34:45+00:00	77.2%	71.2%	56.8%	91.1%	16.2%
2026-10-15T16:20:18+00:00	77.2%	71.2%	56.8%	91.1%	16.2%
2026-10-15T17:05:27+00:00	77.2%	71.2%	58.7%	91.1%	16.2%
2026-10-15T17:50:49+00:00	77.2%	71.2%	58.7%	91.1%	16.2%
2026-10-15T18:36:03+00:00	77.2%	71.2%	58.7%	91.1%	16.2%
2026-10-15T19:21:11+00:00	77.2%	71.2%	58.7%	91.1%	16.2%
2026-10-15T20:06:24+00:00	63.4%	71.2%	58.7%	91.4%	84.6%
2026-10-15T20:51:39+00:00	63.4%	71.2%	58.7%	91.4%	84.6%
2026-10-15T21:36:46+00:00	63.4%	71.2%	58.7%	91.4%	84.6%
2026-10-15T22:21:56+00:00	63.4%	71.2%	58.7%	91.4%	84.6%
2026-10-15T23:07:06+00:00	63.4%	71.2%	35.8%	91.4%	84.6%
2026-10-15T23:52:19+00:00	63.4%	71.2%	35.8%	91.4%	84.6%
2026-10-16T00:37:28+00:00	63.4%	71.2%	35.8%	91.4%	84.6%
2026-10-16T01:22:55+00:00	74.7%	71.2%	35.8%	91.4%	84.6%
2026-10-16T02:08:22+00:00	74.7%	71.2%	35.8%	91.4%	84.6%
2026-10-16T02:53:36+00:00	74.7%	71.2%	35.8%	91.4%	84.6%
2026-10-16T03:38:46+00:00	74.7%	71.2%	35.8%	91.4%	84.6%
2026-10-16T15:05:51+00:00	75.8%	76.0%	43.6%	82.6%	32.5%
2026-10-16T15:50:59+00:00	75.8%	76.0%	43.6%	82.6%	32.5%
2026-10-16T16:36:15+00:00	75.8%	76.0%	43.6%	82.6%	32.5%
2026-10-16T17:21:33+00:00	75.8%	76.0%	47.9%	82.6%	32.5%
2026-10-16T18:06:40+00:00	75.8%	76.0%	47.9%	82.6%	32.5%
2026-10-16T18:51:47+00:00	75.8%	76.0%	47.9%	82.6%	32.5%
2026-10-16T19:37:20+00:00	82.6%	76.0%	47.9%	82.6%	24.2%
2026-10-16T20:22:43+00:00	82.6%	76.0%	47.9%	82.6%	24.2%
2026-10-16T21:07:49+00:00	82.6%	76.0%	47.9%	82.6%	24.2%
2026-10-16T21:52:56+00:00	82.6%	76.0%	47.9%	82.6%	24.2%
2026-10-16T22:38:11+00:00	82.6%	76.0%	47.9%	96.2%	24.2%
2026-10-16T23:23:40+00:00	82.6%	76.0%	74.1%	96.2%	24.2%
2026-10-17T00:09:45+00:00	82.6%	76.0%	74.1%	96.2%	24.2%
2026-10-17T00:55:01+00:00	82.6%	76.0%	74.1%	96.2%	24.2%
2026-10-17T01:40:14+00:00	84.8%	76.0%	74.1%	96.2%	24.2%
2026-10-17T02:25:25+00:00	84.8%	76.0%	74.1%	96.2%	24.2%
2026-10-17T03:10:32+00:00	84.8%	76.0%	74.1%	96.2%	24.2%
2026-10-17T03:55:43+00:00	84.8%	76.0%	74.1%	96.2%	24.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	96%	85.4°F	5.0°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	85%	81.2°F	4.6°F	2026-10-16 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	76%	79.5°F	4.2°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	74%	78.9°F	3.7°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
National Blend	54%	77.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	77.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-16 14:00	Pending
ICON	24%	73.1°F	4.9°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KLAS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLAS-20261020-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 13 · 11:05 UTC

Original listing: Las Vegas high ≥ 77°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗