KLAS / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Las Vegas, NVHigh ≥ 78°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST76%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

97%

88%

85%

63%

45%

Consensus

76%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 71.0¢Risks 71.00u

ICONNO 29.0¢Risks 29.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +29.00u · ICON −29.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	9.6%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	70.8%	—	—	—	—	56.4%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	80.7%	—	—	—	—	59.5%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	73.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	—	46.8%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—	53.2%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—	50.5%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	73.5%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	57.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	—	—	—	68.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	74.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	77.3%	—	—	—	—	65.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	60.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	46.7%	—	—	—	—	58.2%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	71.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	44.3%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	51.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	31.4%	—	—	—	—	45.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	37.1%	—	75.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	28.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	5.1%	—	23.4%	—	—	15.3%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	36.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	24.6%	—	—	31.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	14.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	13.5%	8.2%	8.0%	—	—	20.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	6.0%	—	6.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	3.2%	54.9%	12.6%	8.5%	—	23.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	77.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	3.1%	64.3%	73.4%	57.3%	—	36.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	66.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	36.5%	40.9%	60.6%	82.6%	—	46.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	51.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	19.5%	2.7%	54.0%	33.7%	—	43.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	38.7%	—	61.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	23.2%	69.2%	63.9%	80.5%	—	43.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	35.0%	7.2%	52.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	29.9%	14.1%	58.7%	72.4%	—	36.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	34.2%	2.4%	50.9%	—	—	51.8%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	44.5%	7.9%	60.9%	69.5%	—	59.1%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	47.2%	31.8%	50.9%	—	—	55.7%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	53.9%	51.0%	49.0%	75.3%	—	64.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	53.0%	27.4%	35.3%	—	—	63.7%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	55.1%	37.8%	45.9%	91.8%	0.0%	64.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	56.3%	30.7%	55.3%	—	—	58.4%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	52.2%	34.1%	62.9%	85.7%	—	68.9%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	9.2%	61.1%	0.4%	—	69.5%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	57.0%	44.2%	69.0%	89.0%	0.0%	75.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	56.0%	67.5%	61.9%	91.8%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	48.8%	64.6%	64.6%	88.8%	62.3%	73.4%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	44.9%	68.7%	69.8%	91.3%	—	63.9%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	43.3%	66.9%	70.5%	93.9%	68.1%	54.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	37.7%	81.8%	61.0%	86.1%	—	41.7%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	45.7%	86.2%	69.5%	90.5%	57.2%	60.1%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	53.0%	—	64.8%	85.6%	—	66.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	97%	85.9°F	4.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	88%	81.4°F	3.4°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	85%	82.0°F	4.3°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	63%	78.6°F	3.4°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	78.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 14:00	Pending
National Blend	46%	77.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
ICON	45%	77.0°F	4.0°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 78°F · KLAS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLAS-20261020-TMAX-GE78
Opened Oct 16 · 04:25 UTC

Original listing: Las Vegas high ≥ 78°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗