KLAS / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Las Vegas, NVHigh ≥ 78°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST76%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

97%

88%

85%

63%

45%

Consensus

76%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 71.0¢Risks 71.00u

ICONNO 29.0¢Risks 29.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +29.00u · ICON −29.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T03:28:32+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-16T04:25:17+00:00	67.9%	62.8%	27.2%	88.4%	80.3%
2026-10-16T05:10:35+00:00	67.9%	62.8%	43.2%	88.4%	80.3%
2026-10-16T05:55:59+00:00	67.9%	62.8%	43.2%	88.4%	80.3%
2026-10-16T06:41:10+00:00	67.9%	62.8%	43.2%	88.4%	80.3%
2026-10-16T07:26:19+00:00	64.4%	62.8%	43.2%	88.4%	25.5%
2026-10-16T08:11:30+00:00	64.4%	62.8%	43.2%	88.4%	25.5%
2026-10-16T08:56:39+00:00	64.4%	62.8%	43.2%	88.4%	25.5%
2026-10-16T09:41:44+00:00	64.4%	62.8%	43.2%	88.4%	25.5%
2026-10-16T10:27:00+00:00	64.4%	62.8%	43.2%	88.4%	25.5%
2026-10-16T11:12:28+00:00	64.4%	62.0%	33.4%	88.4%	25.5%
2026-10-16T11:57:44+00:00	64.4%	62.0%	33.4%	88.4%	25.5%
2026-10-16T12:42:52+00:00	64.4%	62.0%	33.4%	88.4%	25.5%
2026-10-16T13:29:06+00:00	68.4%	62.0%	33.4%	77.0%	25.5%
2026-10-16T14:20:02+00:00	68.5%	62.0%	33.4%	77.0%	25.5%
2026-10-17T15:25:23+00:00	84.2%	87.5%	77.1%	94.4%	58.0%
2026-10-17T16:10:35+00:00	84.2%	87.5%	77.1%	94.4%	58.0%
2026-10-17T16:55:44+00:00	84.2%	87.5%	69.3%	94.4%	58.0%
2026-10-17T17:40:52+00:00	84.2%	87.5%	69.3%	94.4%	58.0%
2026-10-17T18:25:59+00:00	84.2%	87.5%	69.3%	94.4%	58.0%
2026-10-17T19:11:07+00:00	84.2%	87.5%	69.3%	94.4%	58.0%
2026-10-17T19:56:20+00:00	84.8%	87.5%	69.3%	97.0%	45.0%
2026-10-17T20:41:33+00:00	84.8%	87.5%	69.3%	97.0%	45.0%
2026-10-17T21:26:40+00:00	84.8%	87.5%	69.3%	97.0%	45.0%
2026-10-17T22:11:57+00:00	84.8%	87.5%	69.3%	97.0%	45.0%
2026-10-17T22:57:07+00:00	84.8%	87.5%	62.8%	97.0%	45.0%
2026-10-17T23:42:15+00:00	84.8%	87.6%	62.8%	97.0%	45.0%
2026-10-18T00:27:28+00:00	84.8%	87.6%	62.8%	97.0%	45.0%
2026-10-18T01:12:58+00:00	84.8%	87.6%	62.8%	97.0%	45.0%
2026-10-18T01:58:16+00:00	85.3%	87.6%	62.8%	97.0%	45.0%
2026-10-18T02:43:24+00:00	85.3%	87.6%	62.8%	97.0%	45.0%
2026-10-18T03:28:32+00:00	85.3%	87.6%	62.8%	97.0%	45.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	97%	85.9°F	4.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	88%	81.4°F	3.4°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	85%	82.0°F	4.3°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	63%	78.6°F	3.4°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	78.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 14:00	Pending
National Blend	46%	77.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
ICON	45%	77.0°F	4.0°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 78°F · KLAS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLAS-20261020-TMAX-GE78
Opened Oct 16 · 04:25 UTC

Original listing: Las Vegas high ≥ 78°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗