KLAS / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Las Vegas, NVHigh ≥ 84°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST22%Oct 20 · 10:07 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

37%

28%

21%

10%

Consensus

22%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 22.1¢Risks 22.10u

ICONNO 77.9¢Risks 77.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +77.90u · ICON −77.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	1.8%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	—	26.1%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—	28.8%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	18.6%	—	—	—	—	23.6%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	—	—	—	21.6%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	—	43.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	36.9%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	—	34.4%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	29.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	18.1%	—	—	—	—	26.7%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	—	—	—	16.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	20.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	8.6%	—	—	—	—	16.2%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	41.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	9.0%	—	—	—	—	7.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	4.8%	—	—	2.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	9.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	4.8%	—	—	7.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	2.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	1.7%	0.8%	0.8%	—	—	3.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	0.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	17.5%	1.4%	0.8%	—	3.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	36.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	23.2%	31.7%	17.9%	—	7.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	24.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	6.8%	8.4%	18.9%	41.7%	—	11.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	4.6%	—	12.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	2.0%	0.1%	13.6%	5.3%	—	8.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	6.5%	—	17.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	2.3%	22.5%	18.4%	34.5%	—	7.7%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	4.7%	0.3%	11.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	3.2%	0.8%	13.6%	23.4%	—	4.7%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	3.9%	0.0%	9.2%	—	—	9.6%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	6.3%	0.3%	13.4%	19.0%	—	12.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	6.7%	2.9%	8.1%	—	—	10.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	8.6%	7.5%	6.8%	21.8%	—	13.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	7.6%	1.8%	3.0%	—	—	12.4%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	7.8%	3.2%	4.9%	43.9%	0.0%	11.8%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	7.6%	1.8%	7.2%	—	—	8.3%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	5.6%	2.0%	9.4%	28.2%	—	12.5%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	4.5%	0.1%	7.9%	0.0%	—	11.8%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	5.7%	2.9%	10.5%	30.0%	0.0%	14.7%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	4.8%	8.7%	6.6%	33.6%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	2.8%	6.7%	6.7%	25.6%	5.9%	10.6%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	1.9%	7.2%	7.7%	28.0%	—	5.6%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	1.4%	5.7%	7.0%	31.9%	6.1%	2.8%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.8%	11.8%	3.5%	15.6%	—	1.1%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	1.1%	13.8%	4.7%	19.1%	2.3%	2.7%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	2.9%	11.2%	—	3.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	59%	84.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	37%	82.3°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	28%	81.3°F	3.8°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	25%	82.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	21%	81.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	10%	79.8°F	2.9°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
ICON	7%	78.3°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 84°F · KLAS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLAS-20261020-TMAX-GE84
Opened Oct 20 · 04:05 UTC

Original listing: Las Vegas high ≥ 84°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗