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KLAS / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Las Vegas, NVHigh ≥ 84°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST22%Oct 20 · 10:07 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
HRES
37%
EPS
28%
AIFS
21%
WN2
10%
ICON
7%
Consensus
22%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
HRESYES 22.1¢Risks 22.10u
VS
ICONNO 77.9¢Risks 77.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +77.90u · ICON −77.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 22.3% · 2026-10-20T04:05:50+00:00AIFS Single: 22.3% · 2026-10-20T04:51:24+00:00AIFS Single: 22.3% · 2026-10-20T05:36:37+00:00AIFS Single: 22.3% · 2026-10-20T06:21:43+00:00AIFS Single: 22.3% · 2026-10-20T07:06:50+00:00AIFS Single: 20.8% · 2026-10-20T07:52:02+00:00AIFS Single: 20.8% · 2026-10-20T08:37:11+00:00AIFS Single: 20.8% · 2026-10-20T09:22:43+00:00AIFS Single: 20.8% · 2026-10-20T10:07:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 28.3% · 2026-10-20T04:05:50+00:00IFS Ensemble: 28.3% · 2026-10-20T04:51:24+00:00IFS Ensemble: 28.3% · 2026-10-20T05:36:37+00:00IFS Ensemble: 28.3% · 2026-10-20T06:21:43+00:00IFS Ensemble: 28.3% · 2026-10-20T07:06:50+00:00IFS Ensemble: 28.3% · 2026-10-20T07:52:02+00:00IFS Ensemble: 28.3% · 2026-10-20T08:37:11+00:00IFS Ensemble: 28.3% · 2026-10-20T09:22:43+00:00IFS Ensemble: 28.3% · 2026-10-20T10:07:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 7.4% · 2026-10-20T04:05:50+00:00WeatherNext 2: 7.4% · 2026-10-20T04:51:24+00:00WeatherNext 2: 10.2% · 2026-10-20T05:36:37+00:00WeatherNext 2: 10.2% · 2026-10-20T06:21:43+00:00WeatherNext 2: 10.2% · 2026-10-20T07:06:50+00:00WeatherNext 2: 10.2% · 2026-10-20T07:52:02+00:00WeatherNext 2: 10.2% · 2026-10-20T08:37:11+00:00WeatherNext 2: 10.2% · 2026-10-20T09:22:43+00:00WeatherNext 2: 10.2% · 2026-10-20T10:07:49+00:00IFS HRES: 37.3% · 2026-10-20T04:05:50+00:00IFS HRES: 37.3% · 2026-10-20T04:51:24+00:00IFS HRES: 37.3% · 2026-10-20T05:36:37+00:00IFS HRES: 37.3% · 2026-10-20T06:21:43+00:00IFS HRES: 37.3% · 2026-10-20T07:06:50+00:00IFS HRES: 37.3% · 2026-10-20T07:52:02+00:00IFS HRES: 37.3% · 2026-10-20T08:37:11+00:00IFS HRES: 37.3% · 2026-10-20T09:22:43+00:00IFS HRES: 37.3% · 2026-10-20T10:07:49+00:00ICON: 4.8% · 2026-10-20T04:05:50+00:00ICON: 4.8% · 2026-10-20T04:51:24+00:00ICON: 4.8% · 2026-10-20T05:36:37+00:00ICON: 4.8% · 2026-10-20T06:21:43+00:00ICON: 4.8% · 2026-10-20T07:06:50+00:00ICON: 6.9% · 2026-10-20T07:52:02+00:00ICON: 6.9% · 2026-10-20T08:37:11+00:00ICON: 6.9% · 2026-10-20T09:22:43+00:00ICON: 6.9% · 2026-10-20T10:07:49+00:0010-20 04:0510-20 07:0610-20 10:07
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-20T10:07:49+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-20T04:05:50+00:0022.3%28.3%7.4%37.3%4.8%
2026-10-20T04:51:24+00:0022.3%28.3%7.4%37.3%4.8%
2026-10-20T05:36:37+00:0022.3%28.3%10.2%37.3%4.8%
2026-10-20T06:21:43+00:0022.3%28.3%10.2%37.3%4.8%
2026-10-20T07:06:50+00:0022.3%28.3%10.2%37.3%4.8%
2026-10-20T07:52:02+00:0020.8%28.3%10.2%37.3%6.9%
2026-10-20T08:37:11+00:0020.8%28.3%10.2%37.3%6.9%
2026-10-20T09:22:43+00:0020.8%28.3%10.2%37.3%6.9%
2026-10-20T10:07:49+00:0020.8%28.3%10.2%37.3%6.9%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
NWS forecast59%84.0°F2.2°F2026-10-20 03:00Pending
IFS HRES37%82.3°F3.7°F2026-10-19 12:00Pending
IFS Ensemble28%81.3°F3.8°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
National Blend25%82.0°F2.2°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
AIFS Single21%81.0°F3.1°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 210%79.8°F2.9°F2026-10-19 18:00Pending
ICON7%78.3°F3.5°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 84°F · KLAS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLAS-20261020-TMAX-GE84
Opened Oct 20 · 04:05 UTC

Original listing: Las Vegas high ≥ 84°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗