KLAS / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Las Vegas, NVHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST50%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

88%

66%

51%

43%

Consensus

50%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 47.0¢Risks 47.00u

ICONNO 53.0¢Risks 53.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +53.00u · ICON −53.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	3.0%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	33.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	55.8%	—	—	—	—	40.5%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—	43.6%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	57.9%	—	—	—	—	65.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	—	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	68.0%	—	—	—	—	51.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	43.1%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	20.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	15.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	26.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	4.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.1%	—	—	2.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	1.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	4.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	1.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.1%	—	—	1.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	60.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	20.3%	—	—	5.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	14.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	1.2%	0.6%	14.5%	1.1%	—	20.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	1.3%	0.6%	56.6%	—	7.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	1.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	2.1%	3.6%	0.5%	—	4.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	5.7%	—	0.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	2.3%	27.4%	35.9%	80.0%	—	2.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	27.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	12.9%	9.0%	10.8%	50.8%	—	7.1%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	24.6%	1.0%	22.0%	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	25.5%	13.1%	26.9%	71.6%	—	37.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	23.5%	35.1%	29.4%	—	—	36.8%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	37.3%	50.0%	33.0%	92.7%	—	42.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	30.9%	30.9%	30.1%	—	—	46.2%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	24.7%	11.1%	41.3%	87.4%	—	29.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	14.6%	8.0%	47.0%	—	—	28.2%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	28.5%	3.8%	55.1%	63.1%	—	30.3%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	37.5%	8.3%	46.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	35.1%	9.4%	48.9%	83.8%	—	12.5%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	38.9%	1.1%	55.6%	0.1%	—	21.4%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	21.5%	4.5%	61.5%	87.3%	0.0%	18.3%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	16.0%	13.2%	56.0%	83.3%	—	9.7%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	10.6%	9.5%	65.8%	80.1%	59.9%	32.0%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	4.6%	—	65.1%	91.3%	—	16.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	88%	83.8°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	66%	81.1°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	80.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	80.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	51%	79.6°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	43%	79.0°F	2.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	6%	74.1°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KLAS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLAS-20261021-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 18 · 14:56 UTC

Original listing: Las Vegas high ≥ 80°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗