KLAS / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Las Vegas, NVHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST50%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

88%

66%

51%

43%

Consensus

50%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 47.0¢Risks 47.00u

ICONNO 53.0¢Risks 53.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +53.00u · ICON −53.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T13:55:26+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T14:56:13+00:00	50.0%	76.9%	61.7%	73.5%	14.1%
2026-10-18T15:41:41+00:00	50.0%	76.8%	61.7%	73.5%	14.1%
2026-10-18T16:27:01+00:00	50.0%	76.8%	61.7%	73.5%	14.1%
2026-10-18T17:12:11+00:00	50.0%	76.8%	42.9%	73.5%	14.1%
2026-10-18T17:57:40+00:00	50.0%	76.8%	42.9%	73.5%	14.1%
2026-10-18T18:42:50+00:00	50.0%	76.8%	42.9%	73.5%	14.1%
2026-10-18T19:28:02+00:00	66.3%	76.8%	42.9%	71.2%	6.0%
2026-10-18T20:13:11+00:00	66.3%	76.8%	42.9%	71.2%	6.0%
2026-10-18T20:58:19+00:00	66.3%	76.8%	42.9%	71.2%	6.0%
2026-10-18T21:43:28+00:00	66.3%	76.8%	42.9%	71.2%	6.0%
2026-10-18T22:28:35+00:00	66.3%	76.8%	42.9%	71.2%	6.0%
2026-10-18T23:13:47+00:00	66.3%	76.8%	65.0%	71.2%	6.0%
2026-10-18T23:58:57+00:00	66.3%	76.8%	65.0%	71.2%	6.0%
2026-10-19T00:44:12+00:00	66.3%	76.8%	65.0%	71.2%	6.0%
2026-10-19T01:29:39+00:00	74.4%	76.8%	65.0%	71.2%	6.0%
2026-10-19T02:14:49+00:00	74.4%	76.8%	65.0%	71.2%	6.0%
2026-10-19T03:00:00+00:00	74.4%	76.8%	65.0%	71.2%	6.0%
2026-10-19T03:45:08+00:00	74.4%	76.8%	65.0%	71.2%	6.0%
2026-10-19T04:31:38+00:00	74.4%	76.8%	65.0%	71.2%	6.0%
2026-10-19T05:17:09+00:00	74.4%	76.8%	69.3%	71.2%	6.0%
2026-10-19T06:02:17+00:00	74.4%	76.8%	69.3%	71.2%	6.0%
2026-10-19T06:47:25+00:00	74.4%	76.8%	69.3%	71.2%	6.0%
2026-10-19T07:33:59+00:00	73.1%	76.8%	69.3%	73.7%	7.6%
2026-10-19T08:19:25+00:00	73.1%	76.8%	69.3%	73.7%	7.6%
2026-10-19T09:04:30+00:00	73.1%	76.8%	69.3%	73.7%	7.6%
2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:00	73.1%	76.8%	69.3%	73.7%	7.6%
2026-10-19T10:35:29+00:00	73.1%	76.8%	69.3%	73.7%	7.6%
2026-10-19T11:21:23+00:00	73.1%	73.7%	63.9%	73.7%	7.6%
2026-10-19T12:06:42+00:00	73.1%	73.7%	63.9%	73.7%	7.6%
2026-10-19T12:51:53+00:00	73.1%	73.7%	63.9%	73.7%	7.6%
2026-10-19T13:37:08+00:00	76.2%	73.7%	63.9%	73.7%	7.6%
2026-10-19T14:28:07+00:00	76.4%	73.7%	63.9%	73.7%	7.6%
2026-10-19T15:14:01+00:00	76.4%	74.5%	63.9%	73.7%	7.6%
2026-10-19T15:59:10+00:00	76.4%	74.5%	63.9%	73.7%	7.6%
2026-10-19T16:44:24+00:00	76.4%	74.5%	63.9%	73.7%	7.6%
2026-10-19T17:29:35+00:00	76.4%	74.5%	66.3%	73.7%	7.6%
2026-10-19T18:14:42+00:00	76.4%	74.5%	66.3%	73.7%	7.6%
2026-10-19T19:00:23+00:00	76.4%	74.5%	66.3%	73.7%	7.6%
2026-10-19T19:45:33+00:00	62.6%	74.5%	66.3%	79.0%	4.3%
2026-10-19T20:30:42+00:00	62.6%	74.5%	66.3%	79.0%	4.3%
2026-10-19T21:15:56+00:00	62.6%	74.5%	66.3%	79.0%	4.3%
2026-10-19T22:01:05+00:00	62.6%	74.5%	66.3%	79.0%	4.3%
2026-10-19T22:46:17+00:00	62.6%	74.5%	66.3%	79.0%	4.3%
2026-10-19T23:31:31+00:00	62.6%	74.5%	52.6%	79.0%	4.3%
2026-10-20T00:17:12+00:00	62.6%	74.5%	52.6%	79.0%	4.3%
2026-10-20T01:02:41+00:00	62.6%	74.5%	52.6%	79.0%	4.3%
2026-10-20T01:47:52+00:00	56.9%	74.5%	52.6%	79.0%	4.3%
2026-10-20T02:33:00+00:00	56.9%	74.5%	52.6%	79.0%	4.3%
2026-10-20T03:18:08+00:00	56.9%	74.5%	52.6%	79.0%	4.3%
2026-10-20T04:05:51+00:00	56.9%	74.5%	52.6%	79.0%	4.3%
2026-10-20T04:51:24+00:00	56.9%	74.5%	52.6%	79.0%	4.3%
2026-10-20T05:36:37+00:00	56.9%	74.5%	66.3%	79.0%	4.3%
2026-10-20T06:21:43+00:00	56.9%	74.5%	66.3%	79.0%	4.3%
2026-10-20T07:06:50+00:00	56.9%	74.5%	66.3%	79.0%	4.3%
2026-10-20T07:52:02+00:00	51.0%	74.5%	66.3%	79.0%	6.4%
2026-10-20T08:37:11+00:00	51.0%	74.5%	66.3%	79.0%	6.4%
2026-10-20T09:22:43+00:00	51.0%	74.5%	66.3%	79.0%	6.4%
2026-10-20T10:07:49+00:00	51.0%	74.5%	66.3%	79.0%	6.4%
2026-10-20T10:54:27+00:00	51.0%	65.8%	43.2%	87.7%	6.4%
2026-10-20T11:39:49+00:00	51.0%	65.8%	43.2%	87.7%	6.4%
2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:00	51.0%	65.8%	43.2%	87.7%	6.4%
2026-10-20T13:10:06+00:00	51.0%	65.8%	43.2%	87.7%	6.4%
2026-10-20T13:55:26+00:00	51.0%	65.8%	43.2%	87.7%	6.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	88%	83.8°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	66%	81.1°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	80.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	80.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	51%	79.6°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	43%	79.0°F	2.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	6%	74.1°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KLAS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLAS-20261021-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 18 · 14:56 UTC

Original listing: Las Vegas high ≥ 80°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗