KLAS / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Las Vegas, NVHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST85%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

97%

91%

83%

70%

Consensus

85%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 84.8¢Risks 84.80u

WN2NO 15.2¢Risks 15.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +15.20u · WN2 −15.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—	29.7%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	76.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	87.7%	—	—	—	—	91.5%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	90.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	96.5%	—	—	—	—	96.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	86.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	71.7%	—	—	—	—	92.9%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	94.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	97.3%	—	—	—	—	94.2%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	94.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	—	—	—	92.7%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	63.1%	—	—	—	—	72.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—	73.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	17.8%	—	—	—	—	55.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	36.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	14.7%	—	—	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	30.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	28.9%	—	—	—	—	54.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	23.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	46.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	10.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—	51.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	36.7%	—	79.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	58.7%	—	—	65.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	38.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	48.0%	—	—	81.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	5.7%	—	55.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	2.8%	2.3%	55.4%	—	—	60.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	63.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	6.5%	27.5%	61.8%	5.2%	—	55.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	16.6%	—	38.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	6.2%	68.3%	94.1%	75.7%	—	42.7%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	76.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	15.1%	39.4%	44.7%	59.8%	—	46.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	13.2%	—	27.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	46.0%	30.1%	67.0%	87.7%	—	75.8%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	24.3%	—	53.3%	—	—	75.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	40.1%	87.1%	36.1%	85.7%	—	81.6%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	53.4%	46.6%	68.2%	—	—	77.4%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	43.0%	62.9%	83.3%	92.7%	—	67.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	37.6%	31.0%	85.5%	—	—	69.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	33.9%	32.2%	96.1%	97.4%	—	61.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	47.2%	69.9%	69.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	39.4%	51.9%	73.7%	97.7%	—	67.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	43.0%	44.0%	89.0%	—	—	11.4%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	29.4%	67.0%	91.4%	98.8%	—	56.1%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	42.6%	70.2%	97.5%	—	—	69.3%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	39.2%	74.5%	93.8%	97.2%	44.5%	75.3%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	31.5%	—	96.0%	70.4%	—	59.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	>99%	81.5°F	5.8°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	97%	80.7°F	7.0°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
ICON	91%	75.6°F	6.1°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	83%	72.2°F	5.0°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	70%	69.7°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	68.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-17 14:00	Pending
National Blend	46%	67.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KLAS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLAS-20261022-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 17 · 04:42 UTC

Original listing: Las Vegas high ≥ 68°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗