KLAS / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Las Vegas, NVHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST85%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

97%

91%

83%

70%

Consensus

85%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 84.8¢Risks 84.80u

WN2NO 15.2¢Risks 15.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +15.20u · WN2 −15.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T03:28:32+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-17T04:42:42+00:00	41.2%	66.6%	61.8%	47.0%	62.6%
2026-10-17T05:28:30+00:00	41.2%	66.6%	74.7%	47.0%	62.6%
2026-10-17T06:13:41+00:00	41.2%	66.6%	74.7%	47.0%	62.6%
2026-10-17T06:58:50+00:00	41.2%	66.6%	74.7%	47.0%	62.6%
2026-10-17T07:45:24+00:00	77.8%	66.6%	74.7%	77.7%	50.7%
2026-10-17T08:31:17+00:00	77.8%	66.6%	74.7%	77.7%	50.7%
2026-10-17T09:16:46+00:00	77.8%	66.6%	74.7%	77.7%	50.7%
2026-10-17T10:01:51+00:00	77.8%	66.6%	74.7%	77.7%	50.7%
2026-10-17T10:46:56+00:00	77.8%	66.6%	74.7%	77.7%	50.7%
2026-10-17T11:32:18+00:00	77.8%	96.1%	92.1%	77.7%	50.7%
2026-10-17T12:17:30+00:00	77.8%	96.1%	92.1%	77.7%	50.7%
2026-10-17T13:02:38+00:00	77.8%	96.1%	92.1%	77.7%	50.7%
2026-10-17T13:47:58+00:00	57.2%	96.1%	92.1%	77.7%	50.7%
2026-10-17T14:39:20+00:00	57.2%	96.1%	92.1%	77.6%	50.7%
2026-10-17T15:25:23+00:00	57.2%	97.0%	92.1%	77.6%	50.7%
2026-10-17T16:10:35+00:00	57.2%	97.0%	92.1%	77.6%	50.7%
2026-10-17T16:55:44+00:00	57.2%	97.0%	55.8%	77.6%	50.7%
2026-10-17T17:40:52+00:00	57.2%	97.0%	55.8%	77.6%	50.7%
2026-10-17T18:25:59+00:00	57.2%	97.0%	55.8%	77.6%	50.7%
2026-10-17T19:11:07+00:00	57.2%	97.0%	55.8%	77.6%	50.7%
2026-10-17T19:56:21+00:00	73.4%	97.0%	55.8%	99.2%	90.7%
2026-10-17T20:41:33+00:00	73.4%	97.0%	55.8%	99.2%	90.7%
2026-10-17T21:26:40+00:00	73.4%	97.0%	55.8%	99.2%	90.7%
2026-10-17T22:11:57+00:00	73.4%	97.0%	55.8%	99.2%	90.7%
2026-10-17T22:57:07+00:00	73.4%	97.0%	70.4%	99.2%	90.7%
2026-10-17T23:42:15+00:00	73.4%	97.0%	70.4%	99.2%	90.7%
2026-10-18T00:27:28+00:00	73.4%	97.0%	70.4%	99.2%	90.7%
2026-10-18T01:12:58+00:00	73.4%	97.0%	70.4%	99.2%	90.7%
2026-10-18T01:58:16+00:00	82.9%	97.0%	70.4%	99.2%	90.7%
2026-10-18T02:43:24+00:00	82.9%	97.0%	70.4%	99.2%	90.7%
2026-10-18T03:28:32+00:00	82.9%	97.0%	70.4%	99.2%	90.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	>99%	81.5°F	5.8°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	97%	80.7°F	7.0°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
ICON	91%	75.6°F	6.1°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	83%	72.2°F	5.0°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	70%	69.7°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	68.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-17 14:00	Pending
National Blend	46%	67.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KLAS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLAS-20261022-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 17 · 04:42 UTC

Original listing: Las Vegas high ≥ 68°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗