KLAS / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Las Vegas, NVHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST31%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

48%

44%

33%

25%

Consensus

31%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 28.5¢Risks 28.50u

WN2NO 71.5¢Risks 71.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +71.50u · WN2 −71.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	—	—	—	18.6%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	—	—	—	71.7%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	81.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—	74.8%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	82.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	—	—	—	77.6%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	52.7%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—	59.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	42.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	—	—	—	34.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	37.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	7.0%	—	—	—	—	37.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	11.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	22.1%	—	—	—	—	36.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	50.6%	—	10.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	46.5%	—	11.7%	—	—	37.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	33.8%	—	39.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	—	51.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	12.9%	—	43.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	—	—	—	30.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	7.0%	—	42.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	4.3%	—	—	22.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	14.4%	—	48.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	9.9%	1.0%	5.6%	—	—	11.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	25.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	12.2%	33.0%	14.5%	0.6%	—	23.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	22.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	13.6%	64.3%	31.7%	37.8%	—	18.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	25.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	16.4%	47.7%	15.5%	52.3%	—	17.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	14.1%	—	26.6%	—	—	3.2%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	11.1%	23.0%	43.6%	38.2%	—	20.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	20.1%	—	—	10.2%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	10.8%	5.3%	26.5%	59.9%	—	14.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	12.8%	1.1%	32.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	11.8%	29.9%	37.1%	39.6%	—	11.3%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	12.5%	13.5%	30.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	15.4%	11.9%	36.4%	52.8%	—	5.5%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	14.3%	24.6%	34.3%	—	—	4.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	12.6%	20.3%	12.1%	31.3%	4.6%	6.2%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	10.0%	—	—	3.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	55%	73.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	48%	72.2°F	5.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	44%	71.8°F	4.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	72.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	33%	70.5°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	25%	69.8°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	9%	68.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KLAS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLAS-20261023-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 20 · 04:05 UTC

Original listing: Las Vegas high ≥ 73°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗