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KLAS / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Las Vegas, NVHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST31%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
48%
AIFS
44%
HRES
33%
ICON
25%
WN2
9%
Consensus
31%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 28.5¢Risks 28.50u
VS
WN2NO 71.5¢Risks 71.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +71.50u · WN2 −71.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 44.8% · 2026-10-20T04:05:56+00:00AIFS Single: 44.8% · 2026-10-20T04:51:24+00:00AIFS Single: 44.8% · 2026-10-20T05:36:37+00:00AIFS Single: 44.8% · 2026-10-20T06:21:43+00:00AIFS Single: 44.8% · 2026-10-20T07:06:50+00:00AIFS Single: 43.5% · 2026-10-20T07:52:02+00:00AIFS Single: 43.5% · 2026-10-20T08:37:11+00:00AIFS Single: 43.5% · 2026-10-20T09:22:43+00:00AIFS Single: 43.5% · 2026-10-20T10:07:49+00:00AIFS Single: 43.5% · 2026-10-20T10:54:27+00:00AIFS Single: 43.5% · 2026-10-20T11:39:49+00:00AIFS Single: 43.5% · 2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:00AIFS Single: 43.5% · 2026-10-20T13:10:06+00:00AIFS Single: 43.5% · 2026-10-20T13:55:26+00:00IFS Ensemble: 43.7% · 2026-10-20T04:05:56+00:00IFS Ensemble: 43.7% · 2026-10-20T04:51:24+00:00IFS Ensemble: 43.7% · 2026-10-20T05:36:37+00:00IFS Ensemble: 43.7% · 2026-10-20T06:21:43+00:00IFS Ensemble: 43.7% · 2026-10-20T07:06:50+00:00IFS Ensemble: 43.7% · 2026-10-20T07:52:02+00:00IFS Ensemble: 43.7% · 2026-10-20T08:37:11+00:00IFS Ensemble: 43.7% · 2026-10-20T09:22:43+00:00IFS Ensemble: 43.7% · 2026-10-20T10:07:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 48.0% · 2026-10-20T10:54:27+00:00IFS Ensemble: 48.0% · 2026-10-20T11:39:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 48.0% · 2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:00IFS Ensemble: 48.0% · 2026-10-20T13:10:06+00:00IFS Ensemble: 48.0% · 2026-10-20T13:55:26+00:00WeatherNext 2: 13.5% · 2026-10-20T04:05:56+00:00WeatherNext 2: 13.5% · 2026-10-20T04:51:24+00:00WeatherNext 2: 12.9% · 2026-10-20T05:36:37+00:00WeatherNext 2: 12.9% · 2026-10-20T06:21:43+00:00WeatherNext 2: 12.9% · 2026-10-20T07:06:50+00:00WeatherNext 2: 12.9% · 2026-10-20T07:52:02+00:00WeatherNext 2: 12.9% · 2026-10-20T08:37:11+00:00WeatherNext 2: 12.9% · 2026-10-20T09:22:43+00:00WeatherNext 2: 12.9% · 2026-10-20T10:07:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 9.0% · 2026-10-20T10:54:27+00:00WeatherNext 2: 9.0% · 2026-10-20T11:39:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 9.0% · 2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:00WeatherNext 2: 9.0% · 2026-10-20T13:10:06+00:00WeatherNext 2: 9.0% · 2026-10-20T13:55:26+00:00IFS HRES: 30.2% · 2026-10-20T04:05:56+00:00IFS HRES: 30.2% · 2026-10-20T04:51:24+00:00IFS HRES: 30.2% · 2026-10-20T05:36:37+00:00IFS HRES: 30.2% · 2026-10-20T06:21:43+00:00IFS HRES: 30.2% · 2026-10-20T07:06:50+00:00IFS HRES: 30.2% · 2026-10-20T07:52:02+00:00IFS HRES: 30.2% · 2026-10-20T08:37:11+00:00IFS HRES: 30.2% · 2026-10-20T09:22:43+00:00IFS HRES: 30.2% · 2026-10-20T10:07:49+00:00IFS HRES: 32.7% · 2026-10-20T10:54:27+00:00IFS HRES: 32.7% · 2026-10-20T11:39:49+00:00IFS HRES: 32.7% · 2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:00IFS HRES: 32.7% · 2026-10-20T13:10:06+00:00IFS HRES: 32.7% · 2026-10-20T13:55:26+00:00ICON: 24.3% · 2026-10-20T04:05:56+00:00ICON: 24.3% · 2026-10-20T04:51:24+00:00ICON: 24.3% · 2026-10-20T05:36:37+00:00ICON: 24.3% · 2026-10-20T06:21:43+00:00ICON: 24.3% · 2026-10-20T07:06:50+00:00ICON: 24.9% · 2026-10-20T07:52:02+00:00ICON: 24.9% · 2026-10-20T08:37:11+00:00ICON: 24.9% · 2026-10-20T09:22:43+00:00ICON: 24.9% · 2026-10-20T10:07:49+00:00ICON: 24.9% · 2026-10-20T10:54:27+00:00ICON: 24.9% · 2026-10-20T11:39:49+00:00ICON: 24.9% · 2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:00ICON: 24.9% · 2026-10-20T13:10:06+00:00ICON: 24.9% · 2026-10-20T13:55:26+00:0010-20 04:0510-20 09:2210-20 13:55
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-20T13:55:26+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-20T04:05:56+00:0044.8%43.7%13.5%30.2%24.3%
2026-10-20T04:51:24+00:0044.8%43.7%13.5%30.2%24.3%
2026-10-20T05:36:37+00:0044.8%43.7%12.9%30.2%24.3%
2026-10-20T06:21:43+00:0044.8%43.7%12.9%30.2%24.3%
2026-10-20T07:06:50+00:0044.8%43.7%12.9%30.2%24.3%
2026-10-20T07:52:02+00:0043.5%43.7%12.9%30.2%24.9%
2026-10-20T08:37:11+00:0043.5%43.7%12.9%30.2%24.9%
2026-10-20T09:22:43+00:0043.5%43.7%12.9%30.2%24.9%
2026-10-20T10:07:49+00:0043.5%43.7%12.9%30.2%24.9%
2026-10-20T10:54:27+00:0043.5%48.0%9.0%32.7%24.9%
2026-10-20T11:39:49+00:0043.5%48.0%9.0%32.7%24.9%
2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:0043.5%48.0%9.0%32.7%24.9%
2026-10-20T13:10:06+00:0043.5%48.0%9.0%32.7%24.9%
2026-10-20T13:55:26+00:0043.5%48.0%9.0%32.7%24.9%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
NWS forecast55%73.0°F3.9°F2026-10-20 03:00Pending
IFS Ensemble48%72.2°F5.9°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
AIFS Single44%71.8°F4.2°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
National Blend41%72.0°F2.2°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending
IFS HRES33%70.5°F4.5°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
ICON25%69.8°F4.0°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 29%68.0°F3.4°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KLAS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLAS-20261023-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 20 · 04:05 UTC

Original listing: Las Vegas high ≥ 73°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗