KLAS / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Las Vegas, NVHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST64%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

87%

74%

64%

57%

46%

Consensus

64%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 66.5¢Risks 66.55u

EPSNO 33.5¢Risks 33.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +33.45u · EPS −33.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	5.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	—	57.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—	60.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	69.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	—	—	—	46.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	36.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	—	26.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—	32.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	65.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	59.5%	—	—	—	—	29.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	70.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	37.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	31.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	31.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	25.5%	—	23.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	23.8%	—	—	—	—	28.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	26.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	26.0%	—	33.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	10.6%	—	—	38.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	38.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	49.4%	—	—	—	—	41.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	48.1%	—	72.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	52.6%	—	53.2%	—	—	39.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	54.0%	—	50.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	63.3%	2.5%	79.2%	—	—	54.7%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	64.8%	—	80.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	62.4%	65.7%	67.0%	5.6%	—	46.5%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	48.6%	—	73.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	60.1%	59.4%	71.5%	45.6%	—	35.7%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	56.7%	—	71.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	56.8%	69.1%	43.9%	93.0%	—	30.3%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	49.2%	—	81.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	62.5%	60.3%	61.8%	47.6%	30.1%	30.1%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	58.9%	—	49.2%	—	—	23.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	87%	78.0°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	74%	76.5°F	6.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	64%	74.6°F	5.8°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	57%	73.2°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	73.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	73.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	46%	72.1°F	4.3°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KLAS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLAS-20261025-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 19 · 04:31 UTC

Original listing: Las Vegas high ≥ 73°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗