KLAS / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Las Vegas, NVHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST64%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

87%

74%

64%

57%

46%

Consensus

64%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 66.5¢Risks 66.55u

EPSNO 33.5¢Risks 33.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +33.45u · EPS −33.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T13:55:26+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-19T04:31:39+00:00	75.1%	53.4%	53.1%	70.1%	75.5%
2026-10-19T05:17:09+00:00	75.1%	53.4%	60.0%	70.1%	75.5%
2026-10-19T06:02:17+00:00	75.1%	53.4%	60.0%	70.1%	75.5%
2026-10-19T06:47:25+00:00	75.1%	53.4%	60.0%	70.1%	75.5%
2026-10-19T07:34:00+00:00	83.6%	53.4%	60.0%	69.7%	75.8%
2026-10-19T08:19:25+00:00	83.6%	53.4%	60.0%	69.7%	75.8%
2026-10-19T09:04:30+00:00	83.6%	53.4%	60.0%	69.7%	75.8%
2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:00	83.6%	53.4%	60.0%	69.7%	75.8%
2026-10-19T10:35:29+00:00	83.6%	53.4%	60.0%	69.7%	75.8%
2026-10-19T11:21:23+00:00	83.6%	31.1%	57.6%	69.7%	75.8%
2026-10-19T12:06:42+00:00	83.6%	31.1%	57.6%	69.7%	75.8%
2026-10-19T12:51:53+00:00	83.6%	31.1%	57.6%	69.7%	75.8%
2026-10-19T13:37:08+00:00	81.7%	31.1%	57.6%	69.7%	75.8%
2026-10-19T14:28:07+00:00	81.8%	31.2%	57.6%	69.7%	75.4%
2026-10-19T15:14:01+00:00	81.8%	31.9%	57.6%	69.7%	75.4%
2026-10-19T15:59:10+00:00	81.8%	31.9%	57.6%	69.7%	75.4%
2026-10-19T16:44:24+00:00	81.8%	31.9%	57.6%	69.7%	75.4%
2026-10-19T17:29:35+00:00	81.8%	31.9%	66.6%	69.7%	75.4%
2026-10-19T18:14:42+00:00	81.8%	31.9%	66.6%	69.7%	75.4%
2026-10-19T19:00:23+00:00	81.8%	31.9%	66.6%	69.7%	75.4%
2026-10-19T19:45:33+00:00	81.8%	31.9%	66.6%	76.7%	80.8%
2026-10-19T20:30:42+00:00	81.8%	31.9%	66.6%	76.7%	80.8%
2026-10-19T21:15:56+00:00	81.8%	31.9%	66.6%	76.7%	80.8%
2026-10-19T22:01:05+00:00	81.8%	31.9%	66.6%	76.7%	80.8%
2026-10-19T22:46:17+00:00	81.8%	31.9%	66.6%	76.7%	80.8%
2026-10-19T23:31:31+00:00	81.8%	31.9%	57.6%	76.7%	80.8%
2026-10-20T00:17:12+00:00	81.8%	31.9%	57.6%	76.7%	80.8%
2026-10-20T01:02:41+00:00	81.8%	31.9%	57.6%	76.7%	80.8%
2026-10-20T01:47:52+00:00	76.5%	31.9%	57.6%	76.7%	80.8%
2026-10-20T02:33:00+00:00	76.5%	31.9%	57.6%	76.7%	80.8%
2026-10-20T03:18:08+00:00	76.5%	31.9%	57.6%	76.7%	80.8%
2026-10-20T04:05:57+00:00	76.5%	31.9%	57.6%	76.7%	80.8%
2026-10-20T04:51:24+00:00	76.5%	31.9%	57.6%	76.7%	80.8%
2026-10-20T05:36:37+00:00	76.5%	31.9%	50.9%	76.7%	80.8%
2026-10-20T06:21:43+00:00	76.5%	31.9%	50.9%	76.7%	80.8%
2026-10-20T07:06:50+00:00	76.5%	31.9%	50.9%	76.7%	80.8%
2026-10-20T07:52:02+00:00	86.7%	31.9%	50.9%	76.7%	74.4%
2026-10-20T08:37:11+00:00	86.7%	31.9%	50.9%	76.7%	74.4%
2026-10-20T09:22:43+00:00	86.7%	31.9%	50.9%	76.7%	74.4%
2026-10-20T10:07:49+00:00	86.7%	31.9%	50.9%	76.7%	74.4%
2026-10-20T10:54:29+00:00	86.7%	46.3%	56.8%	64.2%	74.4%
2026-10-20T11:39:49+00:00	86.7%	46.3%	56.8%	64.2%	74.4%
2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:00	86.7%	46.3%	56.8%	64.2%	74.4%
2026-10-20T13:10:06+00:00	86.7%	46.3%	56.8%	64.2%	74.4%
2026-10-20T13:55:26+00:00	86.8%	46.3%	56.8%	64.2%	74.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	87%	78.0°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	74%	76.5°F	6.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	64%	74.6°F	5.8°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	57%	73.2°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	73.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	73.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	46%	72.1°F	4.3°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KLAS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLAS-20261025-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 19 · 04:31 UTC

Original listing: Las Vegas high ≥ 73°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗