KLAX / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Los Angeles, CAHigh ≥ 89°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 16 · 03:38 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

92%

71%

58%

57%

20%

Consensus

60%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 55.8¢Risks 55.75u

EPSNO 44.2¢Risks 44.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +44.25u · EPS −44.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	3.4%	—	47.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	—	—	—	33.5%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	37.5%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	50.5%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	43.1%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	64.1%	—	—	—	—	50.5%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	77.6%	—	—	—	—	56.4%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	86.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	72.1%	—	—	—	—	48.9%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	71.7%	—	—	—	—	59.0%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	43.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	—	—	—	42.9%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	—	—	—	54.5%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	3.1%	—	—	61.6%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	13.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	85.3%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	16.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	66.5%	—	74.1%	—	—	84.3%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	78.9%	—	41.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	82.8%	—	77.4%	—	—	75.4%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	82.0%	—	13.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	80.6%	—	76.2%	—	—	74.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	80.6%	—	79.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	67.0%	94.4%	80.1%	8.2%	—	73.7%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	77.0%	—	69.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	67.7%	—	77.4%	7.1%	—	79.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	65.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	38.7%	46.9%	65.6%	40.2%	—	82.6%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	43.8%	—	52.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	41.3%	58.7%	46.8%	54.8%	—	82.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	43.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	74.2%	64.7%	39.3%	50.8%	—	87.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	65.8%	21.4%	52.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	41.3%	73.8%	49.1%	41.3%	—	84.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	42.9%	77.8%	41.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	37.3%	82.2%	46.3%	64.4%	—	85.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	58.5%	74.7%	49.0%	—	—	91.2%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	61.5%	81.7%	47.1%	73.7%	—	90.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	67.4%	83.0%	40.1%	—	—	1.5%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	69.7%	86.1%	46.9%	78.1%	—	91.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	66.5%	89.4%	46.8%	—	—	92.0%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	71.8%	94.1%	43.5%	87.5%	0.0%	94.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	72.4%	91.3%	53.4%	14.8%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	70.0%	60.4%	57.0%	66.9%	—	96.7%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	71.7%	92.6%	51.2%	72.7%	—	0.4%
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	74.4%	71.3%	32.0%	61.1%	58.7%	95.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	68.7%	68.7%	42.3%	72.0%	—	95.4%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	59.3%	79.0%	34.3%	52.7%	50.0%	93.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	47.2%	84.5%	23.2%	55.6%	—	91.3%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	52.9%	74.4%	29.3%	37.2%	51.4%	93.7%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	48.5%	94.0%	31.1%	32.5%	—	86.4%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	43.7%	72.4%	25.0%	59.4%	53.2%	91.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	35.5%	64.5%	37.0%	63.0%	—	88.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	92%	94.2°F	4.1°F	2026-10-15 18:00	0.0066
WeatherNext 2	71%	90.2°F	3.1°F	2026-10-15 12:00	0.0853
IFS HRES	58%	89.3°F	4.1°F	2026-10-15 12:00	0.1789
ICON	57%	89.1°F	3.5°F	2026-10-15 12:00	0.1875
NWS forecast	56%	89.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-15 15:00	0.1954
National Blend	44%	88.0°F	3.2°F	2026-10-15 06:00	0.3147
IFS Ensemble	20%	85.4°F	3.6°F	2026-10-15 00:00	0.6464

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 89°F · KLAX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLAX-20261017-TMAX-GE89
Opened Oct 11 · 04:30 UTC

Original listing: Los Angeles high ≥ 89°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗