KLAX / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Los Angeles, CAHigh ≥ 89°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 16 · 03:38 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

92%

71%

58%

57%

20%

Consensus

60%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 55.8¢Risks 55.75u

EPSNO 44.2¢Risks 44.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +44.25u · EPS −44.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-16T03:38:45+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-11T04:30:56+00:00	92.5%	19.1%	65.0%	22.9%	91.5%
2026-10-11T05:16:09+00:00	92.5%	19.1%	64.2%	22.9%	91.5%
2026-10-11T06:01:18+00:00	92.5%	19.1%	64.2%	22.9%	91.5%
2026-10-11T06:46:29+00:00	92.5%	19.1%	64.2%	22.9%	91.5%
2026-10-11T07:32:45+00:00	88.7%	19.1%	64.2%	46.4%	91.5%
2026-10-11T08:18:05+00:00	88.7%	19.1%	64.2%	46.4%	91.5%
2026-10-11T09:03:12+00:00	88.7%	19.1%	64.2%	46.4%	91.5%
2026-10-11T09:48:18+00:00	88.7%	19.1%	64.2%	46.4%	91.5%
2026-10-11T10:34:23+00:00	88.7%	19.1%	64.2%	46.4%	91.5%
2026-10-11T11:20:17+00:00	88.7%	16.5%	70.2%	46.4%	91.5%
2026-10-11T12:05:24+00:00	88.7%	16.5%	70.2%	46.4%	91.5%
2026-10-11T12:50:30+00:00	88.7%	16.5%	70.2%	46.4%	91.5%
2026-10-11T13:35:57+00:00	79.8%	16.5%	70.2%	46.4%	91.5%
2026-10-11T14:26:16+00:00	79.2%	16.9%	70.1%	46.4%	91.5%
2026-10-11T15:12:15+00:00	79.2%	16.0%	70.1%	46.4%	91.5%
2026-10-11T15:57:21+00:00	79.2%	16.0%	70.1%	46.4%	91.5%
2026-10-11T16:42:28+00:00	79.2%	16.0%	70.1%	46.4%	91.5%
2026-10-11T17:28:04+00:00	79.2%	16.0%	62.1%	46.4%	91.5%
2026-10-11T18:13:14+00:00	79.2%	16.0%	62.1%	46.4%	91.5%
2026-10-11T18:58:21+00:00	79.2%	16.0%	62.1%	46.4%	91.5%
2026-10-11T19:43:35+00:00	66.8%	16.0%	62.1%	40.4%	67.1%
2026-10-11T20:28:42+00:00	66.8%	16.0%	62.1%	40.4%	67.1%
2026-10-11T21:13:55+00:00	66.8%	16.0%	62.1%	40.4%	67.1%
2026-10-11T21:59:03+00:00	66.8%	16.0%	62.1%	40.4%	67.1%
2026-10-11T22:44:17+00:00	66.8%	16.0%	62.1%	40.4%	67.1%
2026-10-11T23:29:38+00:00	66.8%	16.0%	42.2%	40.4%	67.1%
2026-10-12T00:14:48+00:00	66.8%	16.0%	42.2%	40.4%	67.1%
2026-10-12T01:00:16+00:00	66.8%	16.0%	42.2%	40.4%	67.1%
2026-10-12T01:45:25+00:00	71.4%	16.0%	42.2%	40.4%	67.1%
2026-10-12T02:30:32+00:00	71.4%	16.0%	42.2%	40.4%	67.1%
2026-10-12T03:15:39+00:00	71.4%	16.0%	42.2%	40.4%	67.1%
2026-10-12T04:02:05+00:00	71.4%	16.0%	42.2%	40.4%	67.1%
2026-10-12T04:47:17+00:00	71.4%	16.0%	42.2%	40.4%	67.1%
2026-10-12T05:32:24+00:00	71.4%	16.0%	44.8%	40.4%	67.1%
2026-10-12T06:17:31+00:00	71.4%	16.0%	44.8%	40.4%	67.1%
2026-10-12T07:02:36+00:00	71.4%	16.0%	44.8%	40.4%	67.1%
2026-10-12T07:49:07+00:00	70.9%	16.0%	44.8%	50.0%	73.5%
2026-10-12T08:34:34+00:00	70.9%	16.0%	44.8%	50.0%	73.5%
2026-10-12T09:19:40+00:00	70.9%	16.0%	44.8%	50.0%	73.5%
2026-10-12T10:05:02+00:00	70.9%	16.0%	44.8%	50.0%	73.5%
2026-10-12T10:50:14+00:00	70.9%	16.0%	44.8%	50.0%	73.5%
2026-10-12T11:35:42+00:00	70.9%	16.0%	39.3%	50.0%	73.5%
2026-10-12T12:20:51+00:00	70.9%	12.3%	39.3%	50.0%	73.5%
2026-10-12T13:05:59+00:00	70.9%	12.3%	39.3%	50.0%	73.5%
2026-10-12T13:51:11+00:00	79.9%	12.3%	39.3%	50.0%	73.5%
2026-10-12T14:41:20+00:00	79.8%	12.3%	39.4%	50.0%	73.5%
2026-10-13T04:16:34+00:00	88.1%	11.1%	52.9%	41.8%	77.3%
2026-10-13T05:01:48+00:00	88.1%	11.1%	52.9%	41.8%	77.3%
2026-10-13T05:46:55+00:00	88.1%	11.1%	41.3%	41.8%	77.3%
2026-10-13T06:32:14+00:00	88.1%	11.1%	41.3%	41.8%	77.3%
2026-10-13T07:17:20+00:00	88.1%	11.1%	41.3%	41.8%	77.3%
2026-10-13T08:04:22+00:00	73.5%	11.1%	41.3%	34.5%	82.6%
2026-10-13T08:49:42+00:00	73.5%	11.1%	41.3%	34.5%	82.6%
2026-10-13T09:34:47+00:00	73.5%	11.1%	41.3%	34.5%	82.6%
2026-10-13T10:20:00+00:00	73.5%	11.1%	41.3%	34.5%	82.6%
2026-10-13T11:05:28+00:00	73.5%	11.1%	41.3%	34.5%	82.6%
2026-10-13T11:50:43+00:00	73.5%	11.4%	42.6%	34.5%	82.6%
2026-10-13T12:35:51+00:00	73.5%	11.4%	42.6%	34.5%	82.6%
2026-10-13T13:20:57+00:00	73.5%	11.4%	42.6%	34.5%	82.6%
2026-10-13T14:06:06+00:00	75.0%	11.4%	42.5%	34.5%	82.5%
2026-10-13T14:56:06+00:00	75.0%	11.4%	42.5%	34.5%	82.5%
2026-10-14T15:12:47+00:00	90.8%	15.1%	58.2%	68.1%	86.6%
2026-10-14T15:57:59+00:00	90.8%	15.1%	58.2%	68.1%	86.6%
2026-10-14T16:43:07+00:00	90.8%	15.1%	58.2%	68.1%	86.6%
2026-10-14T17:28:17+00:00	90.8%	15.1%	61.7%	68.1%	86.6%
2026-10-14T18:13:22+00:00	90.8%	15.1%	61.7%	68.1%	86.6%
2026-10-14T18:58:30+00:00	90.8%	15.1%	61.7%	68.1%	86.6%
2026-10-14T19:43:41+00:00	91.5%	15.1%	61.7%	72.0%	89.1%
2026-10-14T20:28:53+00:00	91.5%	15.1%	61.7%	72.0%	89.1%
2026-10-14T21:13:59+00:00	91.5%	15.1%	61.7%	72.0%	89.1%
2026-10-14T21:59:06+00:00	91.5%	15.1%	61.7%	72.0%	89.1%
2026-10-14T22:44:12+00:00	91.5%	15.1%	61.7%	72.0%	89.1%
2026-10-14T23:29:35+00:00	91.5%	15.1%	60.5%	72.0%	89.1%
2026-10-15T00:15:28+00:00	91.5%	15.1%	60.5%	72.0%	89.1%
2026-10-15T01:01:13+00:00	91.5%	15.1%	60.5%	72.0%	89.1%
2026-10-15T01:46:23+00:00	90.0%	15.1%	60.5%	72.0%	89.1%
2026-10-15T02:31:32+00:00	90.0%	15.1%	60.5%	72.0%	89.1%
2026-10-15T03:16:39+00:00	90.0%	15.1%	60.5%	72.0%	89.1%
2026-10-15T04:02:41+00:00	90.0%	15.1%	60.5%	72.0%	89.1%
2026-10-15T04:48:12+00:00	90.0%	15.1%	60.5%	72.0%	89.1%
2026-10-15T05:33:24+00:00	90.0%	15.1%	58.2%	72.0%	89.1%
2026-10-15T06:18:31+00:00	90.0%	15.1%	58.2%	72.0%	89.1%
2026-10-15T07:03:40+00:00	90.0%	15.1%	58.2%	72.0%	89.1%
2026-10-15T07:50:37+00:00	92.6%	15.1%	58.2%	75.3%	93.6%
2026-10-15T08:35:53+00:00	92.6%	15.1%	58.2%	75.3%	93.6%
2026-10-15T09:21:48+00:00	92.6%	15.1%	58.2%	75.3%	93.6%
2026-10-15T10:07:44+00:00	92.6%	15.1%	58.2%	75.3%	93.6%
2026-10-15T10:53:49+00:00	92.6%	15.1%	58.2%	75.3%	93.6%
2026-10-15T11:39:42+00:00	92.6%	15.1%	73.0%	75.3%	93.6%
2026-10-15T12:24:58+00:00	92.6%	18.1%	73.0%	75.3%	93.6%
2026-10-15T13:10:40+00:00	92.6%	18.1%	73.0%	75.3%	93.6%
2026-10-15T13:55:56+00:00	92.6%	18.1%	73.0%	75.3%	93.6%
2026-10-15T14:48:28+00:00	92.6%	18.7%	73.0%	75.3%	93.6%
2026-10-15T15:34:44+00:00	92.6%	19.6%	73.0%	75.3%	93.6%
2026-10-15T16:20:17+00:00	92.6%	19.6%	73.0%	75.3%	93.6%
2026-10-15T17:05:26+00:00	92.6%	19.6%	63.9%	75.3%	93.6%
2026-10-15T17:50:49+00:00	92.6%	19.6%	63.9%	75.3%	93.6%
2026-10-15T18:36:03+00:00	92.6%	19.6%	63.9%	75.3%	93.6%
2026-10-15T19:21:11+00:00	92.6%	19.6%	63.9%	75.3%	93.6%
2026-10-15T20:06:23+00:00	91.6%	19.6%	63.9%	57.7%	56.7%
2026-10-15T20:51:37+00:00	91.6%	19.6%	63.9%	57.7%	56.7%
2026-10-15T21:36:46+00:00	91.6%	19.6%	63.9%	57.7%	56.7%
2026-10-15T22:21:55+00:00	91.6%	19.6%	63.9%	57.7%	56.7%
2026-10-15T23:07:06+00:00	91.6%	19.6%	70.8%	57.7%	56.7%
2026-10-15T23:52:19+00:00	91.6%	19.6%	70.8%	57.7%	56.7%
2026-10-16T00:37:28+00:00	91.6%	19.6%	70.8%	57.7%	56.7%
2026-10-16T01:22:54+00:00	91.9%	19.6%	70.8%	57.7%	56.7%
2026-10-16T02:08:22+00:00	91.9%	19.6%	70.8%	57.7%	56.7%
2026-10-16T02:53:36+00:00	91.9%	19.6%	70.8%	57.7%	56.7%
2026-10-16T03:38:45+00:00	91.9%	19.6%	70.8%	57.7%	56.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	92%	94.2°F	4.1°F	2026-10-15 18:00	0.0066
WeatherNext 2	71%	90.2°F	3.1°F	2026-10-15 12:00	0.0853
IFS HRES	58%	89.3°F	4.1°F	2026-10-15 12:00	0.1789
ICON	57%	89.1°F	3.5°F	2026-10-15 12:00	0.1875
NWS forecast	56%	89.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-15 15:00	0.1954
National Blend	44%	88.0°F	3.2°F	2026-10-15 06:00	0.3147
IFS Ensemble	20%	85.4°F	3.6°F	2026-10-15 00:00	0.6464

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 89°F · KLAX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLAX-20261017-TMAX-GE89
Opened Oct 11 · 04:30 UTC

Original listing: Los Angeles high ≥ 89°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗