KLAX / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Los Angeles, CAHigh ≥ 90°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 17 · 06:58 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

76%

51%

51%

49%

17%

Consensus

55%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 46.7¢Risks 46.70u

EPSNO 53.3¢Risks 53.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +53.30u · EPS −53.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	42.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	—	—	—	28.8%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	32.5%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	45.2%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	—	—	—	38.0%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	59.0%	—	—	—	—	45.2%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	73.5%	—	—	—	—	51.1%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	83.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	67.5%	—	—	—	—	43.6%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	67.1%	—	—	—	—	53.7%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	37.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	—	—	—	37.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	—	—	—	48.9%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	2.2%	—	—	55.9%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	10.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	20.6%	—	—	—	—	81.5%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	60.6%	—	68.7%	—	—	80.2%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	73.9%	—	35.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	78.3%	—	72.2%	—	—	69.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	77.3%	—	10.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	75.6%	—	70.6%	—	—	68.2%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	75.5%	—	74.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	60.4%	92.1%	74.8%	5.8%	—	67.7%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	71.1%	—	62.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	60.8%	—	71.5%	4.9%	—	74.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	58.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	31.6%	39.4%	58.3%	33.0%	—	77.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	36.2%	—	44.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	33.7%	50.8%	39.0%	46.8%	—	76.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	43.5%	—	35.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	67.0%	56.6%	31.5%	42.5%	—	82.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	57.6%	15.7%	44.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	33.0%	66.2%	40.5%	33.0%	—	79.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	34.2%	70.6%	32.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	28.9%	75.6%	37.3%	55.5%	—	79.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	49.0%	66.5%	39.7%	—	—	86.8%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	51.9%	74.5%	37.6%	65.2%	—	85.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	58.0%	75.9%	30.8%	—	—	0.8%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	60.2%	79.5%	36.9%	69.7%	—	86.6%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	56.3%	83.7%	36.5%	—	—	87.4%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	61.8%	90.1%	33.1%	81.0%	0.0%	90.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	62.2%	85.9%	42.2%	9.2%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	59.2%	48.8%	45.4%	55.8%	—	93.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	60.7%	87.4%	39.3%	61.9%	—	0.1%
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	63.4%	59.9%	21.7%	48.8%	46.3%	91.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	56.4%	56.4%	30.2%	60.2%	—	91.3%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	46.0%	68.1%	23.0%	39.4%	36.8%	88.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	33.8%	74.7%	13.9%	41.7%	—	84.5%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	38.6%	61.4%	18.2%	24.5%	37.2%	87.8%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	33.8%	88.0%	19.2%	20.2%	—	76.4%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	29.0%	57.9%	14.2%	43.7%	37.6%	83.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	21.6%	48.4%	22.8%	46.7%	—	78.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	76%	91.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-17 03:00	0.0566
AIFS Single	76%	92.3°F	4.0°F	2026-10-16 18:00	0.0571
IFS HRES	51%	89.6°F	3.7°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.2391
ICON	51%	89.6°F	3.5°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.2391
WeatherNext 2	49%	89.4°F	2.9°F	2026-10-16 18:00	0.2642
National Blend	43%	89.0°F	2.8°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.3260
IFS Ensemble	17%	85.8°F	3.9°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.6839

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KLAX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLAX-20261017-TMAX-GE90
Opened Oct 10 · 22:28 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in Los Angeles · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗