KLAX / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Los Angeles, CAHigh ≥ 90°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 17 · 06:58 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

76%

51%

51%

49%

17%

Consensus

55%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 46.7¢Risks 46.70u

EPSNO 53.3¢Risks 53.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +53.30u · EPS −53.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T06:58:50+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-10T22:28:11+00:00	83.4%	15.5%	50.8%	18.4%	89.8%
2026-10-10T23:13:34+00:00	83.4%	15.5%	57.2%	18.4%	89.8%
2026-10-10T23:58:42+00:00	83.4%	15.5%	57.2%	18.4%	89.8%
2026-10-11T00:43:48+00:00	83.4%	15.5%	57.2%	18.4%	89.8%
2026-10-11T01:29:05+00:00	89.6%	15.5%	57.2%	18.4%	89.8%
2026-10-11T02:14:15+00:00	89.6%	15.5%	57.2%	18.4%	89.8%
2026-10-11T02:59:23+00:00	89.6%	15.5%	57.2%	18.4%	89.8%
2026-10-11T03:45:28+00:00	89.6%	15.5%	57.2%	18.4%	89.8%
2026-10-11T04:30:56+00:00	89.6%	15.5%	57.2%	18.4%	89.8%
2026-10-11T05:16:09+00:00	89.6%	15.5%	56.4%	18.4%	89.8%
2026-10-11T06:01:18+00:00	89.6%	15.5%	56.4%	18.4%	89.8%
2026-10-11T06:46:29+00:00	89.6%	15.5%	56.4%	18.4%	89.8%
2026-10-11T07:32:45+00:00	84.7%	15.5%	56.4%	40.4%	89.8%
2026-10-11T08:18:05+00:00	84.7%	15.5%	56.4%	40.4%	89.8%
2026-10-11T09:03:12+00:00	84.7%	15.5%	56.4%	40.4%	89.8%
2026-10-11T09:48:18+00:00	84.7%	15.5%	56.4%	40.4%	89.8%
2026-10-11T10:34:23+00:00	84.7%	15.5%	56.4%	40.4%	89.8%
2026-10-11T11:20:17+00:00	84.7%	11.9%	62.1%	40.4%	89.8%
2026-10-11T12:05:24+00:00	84.7%	11.9%	62.1%	40.4%	89.8%
2026-10-11T12:50:30+00:00	84.7%	11.9%	62.1%	40.4%	89.8%
2026-10-11T13:35:57+00:00	74.0%	11.9%	62.1%	40.4%	89.8%
2026-10-11T14:26:16+00:00	73.4%	12.3%	62.1%	40.4%	89.8%
2026-10-11T15:12:15+00:00	73.4%	11.5%	62.1%	40.4%	89.8%
2026-10-11T15:57:21+00:00	73.4%	11.5%	62.1%	40.4%	89.8%
2026-10-11T16:42:28+00:00	73.4%	11.5%	62.1%	40.4%	89.8%
2026-10-11T17:28:04+00:00	73.4%	11.5%	53.5%	40.4%	89.8%
2026-10-11T18:13:14+00:00	73.4%	11.5%	53.5%	40.4%	89.8%
2026-10-11T18:58:21+00:00	73.4%	11.5%	53.5%	40.4%	89.8%
2026-10-11T19:43:35+00:00	59.7%	11.5%	53.5%	34.6%	61.8%
2026-10-11T20:28:42+00:00	59.7%	11.5%	53.5%	34.6%	61.8%
2026-10-11T21:13:55+00:00	59.7%	11.5%	53.5%	34.6%	61.8%
2026-10-11T21:59:03+00:00	59.7%	11.5%	53.5%	34.6%	61.8%
2026-10-11T22:44:17+00:00	59.7%	11.5%	53.5%	34.6%	61.8%
2026-10-11T23:29:38+00:00	59.7%	11.5%	33.8%	34.6%	61.8%
2026-10-12T00:14:48+00:00	59.7%	11.5%	33.8%	34.6%	61.8%
2026-10-12T01:00:16+00:00	59.7%	11.5%	33.8%	34.6%	61.8%
2026-10-12T01:45:25+00:00	64.7%	11.5%	33.8%	34.6%	61.8%
2026-10-12T02:30:32+00:00	64.7%	11.5%	33.8%	34.6%	61.8%
2026-10-12T03:15:39+00:00	64.7%	11.5%	33.8%	34.6%	61.8%
2026-10-12T04:02:05+00:00	64.7%	11.5%	33.8%	34.6%	61.8%
2026-10-12T04:47:17+00:00	64.7%	11.5%	33.8%	34.6%	61.8%
2026-10-12T05:32:24+00:00	64.7%	11.5%	36.3%	34.6%	61.8%
2026-10-12T06:17:31+00:00	64.7%	11.5%	36.3%	34.6%	61.8%
2026-10-12T07:02:36+00:00	64.7%	11.5%	36.3%	34.6%	61.8%
2026-10-12T07:49:07+00:00	63.6%	11.5%	36.3%	43.1%	67.7%
2026-10-12T08:34:34+00:00	63.6%	11.5%	36.3%	43.1%	67.7%
2026-10-12T09:19:40+00:00	63.6%	11.5%	36.3%	43.1%	67.7%
2026-10-12T10:05:02+00:00	63.6%	11.5%	36.3%	43.1%	67.7%
2026-10-12T10:50:14+00:00	63.6%	11.5%	36.3%	43.1%	67.7%
2026-10-12T11:35:42+00:00	63.6%	11.5%	30.2%	43.1%	67.7%
2026-10-12T12:20:51+00:00	63.6%	7.6%	30.2%	43.1%	67.7%
2026-10-12T13:05:59+00:00	63.6%	7.6%	30.2%	43.1%	67.7%
2026-10-12T13:51:11+00:00	73.7%	7.6%	30.2%	43.1%	67.7%
2026-10-12T14:41:20+00:00	73.6%	7.6%	30.3%	43.1%	67.7%
2026-10-12T15:27:49+00:00	73.6%	7.6%	30.3%	43.1%	67.7%
2026-10-12T16:12:59+00:00	73.6%	6.7%	30.3%	43.1%	67.7%
2026-10-12T16:58:08+00:00	73.6%	6.7%	30.3%	43.1%	67.7%
2026-10-12T17:43:16+00:00	73.6%	6.7%	31.2%	43.1%	67.7%
2026-10-12T18:28:22+00:00	73.6%	6.7%	31.2%	43.1%	67.7%
2026-10-12T19:13:29+00:00	73.6%	6.7%	31.2%	43.1%	67.7%
2026-10-12T19:58:38+00:00	88.5%	6.7%	31.2%	35.1%	71.8%
2026-10-12T20:43:45+00:00	88.5%	6.7%	31.2%	35.1%	71.8%
2026-10-12T21:28:52+00:00	88.5%	6.7%	31.2%	35.1%	71.8%
2026-10-12T22:13:59+00:00	88.5%	6.7%	31.2%	35.1%	71.8%
2026-10-12T22:59:14+00:00	88.5%	6.7%	43.2%	35.1%	71.8%
2026-10-12T23:44:21+00:00	88.5%	6.7%	43.2%	35.1%	71.8%
2026-10-13T00:29:27+00:00	88.5%	6.7%	43.2%	35.1%	71.8%
2026-10-13T01:14:42+00:00	88.5%	6.7%	43.2%	35.1%	71.8%
2026-10-13T01:59:50+00:00	83.6%	6.7%	43.2%	35.1%	71.8%
2026-10-13T02:44:58+00:00	83.6%	6.7%	43.2%	35.1%	71.8%
2026-10-13T03:30:05+00:00	83.6%	6.7%	43.2%	35.1%	71.8%
2026-10-13T04:16:34+00:00	83.6%	6.7%	43.2%	35.1%	71.8%
2026-10-13T05:01:48+00:00	83.6%	6.7%	43.2%	35.1%	71.8%
2026-10-13T05:46:55+00:00	83.6%	6.7%	32.1%	35.1%	71.8%
2026-10-13T06:32:14+00:00	83.6%	6.7%	32.1%	35.1%	71.8%
2026-10-13T07:17:20+00:00	83.6%	6.7%	32.1%	35.1%	71.8%
2026-10-13T08:04:22+00:00	66.0%	6.7%	32.1%	27.4%	76.7%
2026-10-13T08:49:42+00:00	66.0%	6.7%	32.1%	27.4%	76.7%
2026-10-13T09:34:47+00:00	66.0%	6.7%	32.1%	27.4%	76.7%
2026-10-13T10:20:00+00:00	66.0%	6.7%	32.1%	27.4%	76.7%
2026-10-13T11:05:28+00:00	66.0%	6.7%	32.1%	27.4%	76.7%
2026-10-13T11:50:43+00:00	66.0%	6.7%	32.4%	27.4%	76.7%
2026-10-13T12:35:51+00:00	66.0%	6.7%	32.4%	27.4%	76.7%
2026-10-13T13:20:57+00:00	66.0%	6.7%	32.4%	27.4%	76.7%
2026-10-13T14:06:06+00:00	67.6%	6.7%	32.4%	27.4%	76.6%
2026-10-13T14:56:06+00:00	67.6%	6.7%	32.4%	27.4%	76.6%
2026-10-13T15:41:56+00:00	67.6%	6.3%	32.4%	27.4%	76.6%
2026-10-13T16:27:06+00:00	67.6%	6.3%	32.4%	27.4%	76.6%
2026-10-13T17:12:14+00:00	67.6%	6.3%	43.6%	27.4%	76.6%
2026-10-13T17:57:20+00:00	67.6%	6.3%	43.6%	27.4%	76.6%
2026-10-13T18:42:25+00:00	67.6%	6.3%	43.6%	27.4%	76.6%
2026-10-13T19:27:31+00:00	67.6%	6.3%	43.6%	27.4%	76.6%
2026-10-13T20:12:39+00:00	62.8%	6.3%	43.6%	27.4%	83.0%
2026-10-13T20:57:46+00:00	62.8%	6.3%	43.6%	27.4%	83.0%
2026-10-13T21:43:20+00:00	62.8%	6.3%	43.6%	27.4%	83.0%
2026-10-13T22:28:27+00:00	62.8%	6.3%	43.6%	27.4%	83.0%
2026-10-13T23:13:40+00:00	62.8%	6.3%	38.4%	50.0%	83.0%
2026-10-13T23:58:48+00:00	62.8%	6.3%	38.4%	50.0%	83.0%
2026-10-14T00:43:56+00:00	62.8%	6.3%	38.4%	50.0%	83.0%
2026-10-14T01:29:15+00:00	79.6%	6.3%	38.4%	50.0%	83.0%
2026-10-14T02:14:22+00:00	79.6%	6.3%	38.4%	50.0%	83.0%
2026-10-14T03:00:14+00:00	79.6%	6.3%	38.4%	50.0%	83.0%
2026-10-14T03:45:41+00:00	79.6%	6.3%	38.4%	50.0%	83.0%
2026-10-14T04:30:47+00:00	79.6%	6.3%	38.4%	50.0%	83.0%
2026-10-14T05:15:56+00:00	79.6%	6.3%	38.4%	50.0%	83.0%
2026-10-14T06:01:02+00:00	79.6%	6.3%	38.4%	50.0%	83.0%
2026-10-14T06:46:20+00:00	79.6%	6.3%	38.4%	50.0%	83.0%
2026-10-14T07:31:30+00:00	83.6%	6.3%	38.4%	50.0%	80.4%
2026-10-14T08:16:40+00:00	83.6%	6.3%	38.4%	50.0%	80.4%
2026-10-14T09:01:49+00:00	83.6%	6.3%	38.4%	50.0%	80.4%
2026-10-14T09:46:56+00:00	83.6%	6.3%	38.4%	50.0%	80.4%
2026-10-14T10:34:54+00:00	83.6%	6.3%	38.4%	59.7%	80.4%
2026-10-14T11:21:05+00:00	83.6%	8.6%	46.5%	59.7%	80.4%
2026-10-14T12:06:15+00:00	83.6%	8.6%	46.5%	59.7%	80.4%
2026-10-14T12:51:24+00:00	83.6%	8.6%	46.5%	59.7%	80.4%
2026-10-14T13:36:32+00:00	86.3%	8.6%	46.5%	59.7%	80.4%
2026-10-14T14:26:53+00:00	86.3%	8.7%	46.5%	59.7%	80.4%
2026-10-14T15:12:47+00:00	86.3%	9.1%	46.5%	59.7%	80.4%
2026-10-14T15:57:59+00:00	86.3%	9.1%	46.5%	59.7%	80.4%
2026-10-14T16:43:07+00:00	86.3%	9.1%	46.5%	59.7%	80.4%
2026-10-14T17:28:17+00:00	86.3%	9.1%	50.0%	59.7%	80.4%
2026-10-14T18:13:22+00:00	86.3%	9.1%	50.0%	59.7%	80.4%
2026-10-14T18:58:30+00:00	86.3%	9.1%	50.0%	59.7%	80.4%
2026-10-14T19:43:41+00:00	87.3%	9.1%	50.0%	64.0%	83.7%
2026-10-14T20:28:53+00:00	87.3%	9.1%	50.0%	64.0%	83.7%
2026-10-14T21:13:59+00:00	87.3%	9.1%	50.0%	64.0%	83.7%
2026-10-14T21:59:06+00:00	87.3%	9.1%	50.0%	64.0%	83.7%
2026-10-14T22:44:12+00:00	87.3%	9.1%	50.0%	64.0%	83.7%
2026-10-14T23:29:35+00:00	87.3%	9.1%	48.8%	64.0%	83.7%
2026-10-15T00:15:28+00:00	87.3%	9.1%	48.8%	64.0%	83.7%
2026-10-15T01:01:13+00:00	87.3%	9.1%	48.8%	64.0%	83.7%
2026-10-15T01:46:23+00:00	85.3%	9.1%	48.8%	64.0%	83.7%
2026-10-15T02:31:32+00:00	85.3%	9.1%	48.8%	64.0%	83.7%
2026-10-15T03:16:39+00:00	85.3%	9.1%	48.8%	64.0%	83.7%
2026-10-15T04:02:41+00:00	85.3%	9.1%	48.8%	64.0%	83.7%
2026-10-15T04:48:12+00:00	85.3%	9.1%	48.8%	64.0%	83.7%
2026-10-15T05:33:24+00:00	85.3%	9.1%	46.5%	64.0%	83.7%
2026-10-15T06:18:31+00:00	85.3%	9.1%	46.5%	64.0%	83.7%
2026-10-15T07:03:40+00:00	85.3%	9.1%	46.5%	64.0%	83.7%
2026-10-15T07:50:37+00:00	88.5%	9.1%	46.5%	67.0%	89.3%
2026-10-15T08:35:53+00:00	88.5%	9.1%	46.5%	67.0%	89.3%
2026-10-15T09:21:48+00:00	88.5%	9.1%	46.5%	67.0%	89.3%
2026-10-15T10:07:44+00:00	88.5%	9.1%	46.5%	67.0%	89.3%
2026-10-15T10:53:49+00:00	88.5%	9.1%	46.5%	67.0%	89.3%
2026-10-15T11:39:42+00:00	88.5%	9.1%	61.4%	67.0%	89.3%
2026-10-15T12:24:58+00:00	88.5%	11.6%	61.4%	67.0%	89.3%
2026-10-15T13:10:40+00:00	88.5%	11.6%	61.4%	67.0%	89.3%
2026-10-15T13:55:56+00:00	88.5%	11.6%	61.4%	67.0%	89.3%
2026-10-15T14:48:28+00:00	88.6%	12.2%	61.4%	67.0%	89.3%
2026-10-15T15:34:44+00:00	88.6%	12.9%	61.4%	67.0%	89.3%
2026-10-15T16:20:17+00:00	88.6%	12.9%	61.4%	67.0%	89.3%
2026-10-15T17:05:26+00:00	88.6%	12.9%	51.3%	67.0%	89.3%
2026-10-15T17:50:49+00:00	88.6%	12.9%	51.3%	67.0%	89.3%
2026-10-15T18:36:03+00:00	88.6%	12.9%	51.3%	67.0%	89.3%
2026-10-15T19:21:11+00:00	88.6%	12.9%	51.3%	67.0%	89.3%
2026-10-15T20:06:23+00:00	87.1%	12.9%	51.3%	48.1%	45.5%
2026-10-15T20:51:37+00:00	87.1%	12.9%	51.3%	48.1%	45.5%
2026-10-15T21:36:46+00:00	87.1%	12.9%	51.3%	48.1%	45.5%
2026-10-15T22:21:55+00:00	87.1%	12.9%	51.3%	48.1%	45.5%
2026-10-15T23:07:06+00:00	87.1%	12.9%	58.9%	48.1%	45.5%
2026-10-15T23:52:19+00:00	87.1%	12.9%	58.9%	48.1%	45.5%
2026-10-16T00:37:28+00:00	87.1%	12.9%	58.9%	48.1%	45.5%
2026-10-16T01:22:54+00:00	87.6%	12.9%	58.9%	48.1%	45.5%
2026-10-16T02:08:22+00:00	87.6%	12.9%	58.9%	48.1%	45.5%
2026-10-16T02:53:36+00:00	87.6%	12.9%	58.9%	48.1%	45.5%
2026-10-16T03:38:45+00:00	87.6%	12.9%	58.9%	48.1%	45.5%
2026-10-16T04:25:09+00:00	87.6%	12.9%	58.9%	48.1%	45.5%
2026-10-16T05:10:34+00:00	87.6%	12.9%	61.4%	48.1%	45.5%
2026-10-16T05:55:59+00:00	87.6%	12.9%	61.4%	48.1%	45.5%
2026-10-16T06:41:09+00:00	87.6%	12.9%	61.4%	48.1%	45.5%
2026-10-16T07:26:19+00:00	87.6%	12.9%	61.4%	48.1%	45.5%
2026-10-16T08:11:30+00:00	89.2%	12.9%	61.4%	48.1%	44.4%
2026-10-16T08:56:38+00:00	89.2%	12.9%	61.4%	48.1%	44.4%
2026-10-16T09:41:44+00:00	89.2%	12.9%	61.4%	48.1%	44.4%
2026-10-16T10:26:59+00:00	89.2%	12.9%	61.4%	48.1%	44.4%
2026-10-16T11:12:27+00:00	89.2%	15.3%	51.4%	48.1%	44.4%
2026-10-16T11:57:43+00:00	89.2%	15.3%	51.4%	48.1%	44.4%
2026-10-16T12:42:52+00:00	89.2%	15.3%	51.4%	48.1%	44.4%
2026-10-16T13:29:03+00:00	89.2%	15.3%	51.4%	48.1%	44.4%
2026-10-16T14:19:59+00:00	86.7%	15.4%	51.4%	58.5%	44.4%
2026-10-16T15:05:50+00:00	86.7%	17.9%	51.4%	58.5%	44.4%
2026-10-16T15:50:59+00:00	86.7%	17.9%	51.4%	58.5%	44.4%
2026-10-16T16:36:15+00:00	86.7%	17.9%	51.4%	58.5%	44.4%
2026-10-16T17:21:32+00:00	86.7%	17.9%	51.4%	58.5%	44.4%
2026-10-16T18:06:39+00:00	86.7%	17.9%	51.4%	58.5%	44.4%
2026-10-16T18:51:46+00:00	86.7%	17.9%	51.4%	58.5%	44.4%
2026-10-16T19:37:17+00:00	81.9%	17.9%	51.4%	58.5%	51.1%
2026-10-16T20:22:43+00:00	81.9%	17.9%	51.4%	58.5%	51.1%
2026-10-16T21:07:49+00:00	81.9%	17.9%	51.4%	58.5%	51.1%
2026-10-16T21:52:56+00:00	81.9%	17.9%	51.4%	58.5%	51.1%
2026-10-16T22:38:11+00:00	81.9%	17.9%	51.4%	51.1%	51.1%
2026-10-16T23:23:40+00:00	81.9%	17.3%	59.5%	51.1%	51.1%
2026-10-17T00:09:45+00:00	81.9%	17.3%	59.5%	51.1%	51.1%
2026-10-17T00:55:01+00:00	81.9%	17.3%	59.5%	51.1%	51.1%
2026-10-17T01:40:14+00:00	76.1%	17.3%	59.5%	51.1%	51.1%
2026-10-17T02:25:24+00:00	76.1%	17.3%	59.5%	51.1%	51.1%
2026-10-17T03:10:31+00:00	76.1%	17.3%	59.5%	51.1%	51.1%
2026-10-17T03:55:43+00:00	76.1%	17.3%	59.5%	51.1%	51.1%
2026-10-17T04:42:39+00:00	76.1%	17.3%	59.5%	51.1%	51.1%
2026-10-17T05:28:30+00:00	76.1%	17.3%	48.6%	51.1%	51.1%
2026-10-17T06:13:40+00:00	76.1%	17.3%	48.6%	51.1%	51.1%
2026-10-17T06:58:50+00:00	76.1%	17.3%	48.6%	51.1%	51.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	76%	91.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-17 03:00	0.0566
AIFS Single	76%	92.3°F	4.0°F	2026-10-16 18:00	0.0571
IFS HRES	51%	89.6°F	3.7°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.2391
ICON	51%	89.6°F	3.5°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.2391
WeatherNext 2	49%	89.4°F	2.9°F	2026-10-16 18:00	0.2642
National Blend	43%	89.0°F	2.8°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.3260
IFS Ensemble	17%	85.8°F	3.9°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.6839

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KLAX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLAX-20261017-TMAX-GE90
Opened Oct 10 · 22:28 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in Los Angeles · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗