KLAX / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Los Angeles, CAHigh ≥ 84°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST63%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

85%

76%

54%

53%

49%

Consensus

63%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 67.2¢Risks 67.15u

EPSNO 32.9¢Risks 32.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +32.85u · EPS −32.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	2.5%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—	71.2%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	76.4%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	76.4%	—	—	—	—	76.8%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	93.4%	—	—	—	—	80.3%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	88.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	70.3%	—	—	—	—	77.6%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	—	78.8%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	69.4%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	80.8%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	28.1%	—	—	—	—	83.3%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	12.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	35.6%	—	—	—	—	95.2%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	37.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	71.7%	—	—	—	—	93.1%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	89.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	89.1%	—	51.8%	—	—	90.7%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	78.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	82.0%	—	90.2%	—	—	91.2%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	82.8%	—	62.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	64.0%	—	85.2%	—	—	90.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	76.3%	—	82.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	72.4%	—	83.7%	—	—	92.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	71.0%	—	78.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	59.7%	89.1%	74.8%	7.7%	—	93.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	59.9%	—	62.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	65.7%	90.4%	57.3%	72.8%	—	94.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	74.4%	—	49.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	81.6%	90.7%	58.3%	63.5%	—	95.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	78.3%	—	63.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	69.8%	93.1%	51.6%	57.9%	—	95.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	72.4%	—	43.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	65.5%	84.8%	53.3%	72.1%	—	94.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	67.4%	30.3%	47.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	64.6%	85.4%	47.4%	73.1%	—	94.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	66.6%	88.4%	61.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	67.8%	79.1%	39.1%	46.3%	—	96.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	64.8%	91.6%	35.2%	—	—	51.9%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	62.4%	95.6%	59.6%	87.9%	—	95.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	58.9%	92.0%	45.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	55.1%	85.5%	31.2%	74.1%	—	95.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	57.4%	90.8%	24.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	61.8%	89.1%	28.2%	77.8%	—	98.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	52.2%	86.5%	21.4%	1.8%	—	97.1%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	48.8%	86.6%	22.4%	58.1%	—	97.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	88.0%	30.4%	21.6%	—	97.3%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	46.3%	92.5%	48.8%	18.2%	57.4%	94.8%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	48.7%	89.7%	43.6%	24.8%	—	96.5%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	61.9%	89.9%	46.0%	43.3%	83.5%	98.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	54.2%	86.8%	31.2%	50.0%	—	96.8%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	57.2%	88.5%	42.8%	29.3%	74.4%	96.3%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	47.0%	94.4%	38.1%	33.8%	—	97.6%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	46.8%	93.9%	34.6%	21.4%	76.2%	97.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	40.2%	95.9%	37.0%	33.9%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	85%	87.6°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
ICON	76%	86.0°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	84.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-17 14:00	Pending
IFS HRES	54%	83.9°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	53%	83.7°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	49%	83.4°F	4.8°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
National Blend	44%	83.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 84°F · KLAX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLAX-20261018-TMAX-GE84
Opened Oct 13 · 15:41 UTC

Original listing: Los Angeles high ≥ 84°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗