KLAX / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Los Angeles, CAHigh ≥ 84°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST63%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

85%

76%

54%

53%

49%

Consensus

63%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 67.2¢Risks 67.15u

EPSNO 32.9¢Risks 32.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +32.85u · EPS −32.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T03:28:32+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-13T15:41:56+00:00	90.9%	43.2%	53.9%	37.8%	95.5%
2026-10-13T16:27:06+00:00	90.9%	43.2%	53.9%	37.9%	95.5%
2026-10-13T17:12:14+00:00	90.9%	43.2%	61.5%	37.9%	95.5%
2026-10-13T17:57:20+00:00	90.9%	43.2%	61.5%	37.9%	95.5%
2026-10-13T18:42:25+00:00	90.9%	43.2%	61.5%	37.9%	95.5%
2026-10-13T19:27:31+00:00	90.9%	43.2%	61.5%	37.9%	95.5%
2026-10-13T20:12:39+00:00	87.5%	43.2%	61.5%	37.9%	89.9%
2026-10-13T20:57:46+00:00	87.5%	43.2%	61.5%	37.9%	89.9%
2026-10-13T21:43:20+00:00	87.5%	43.2%	61.5%	37.9%	89.9%
2026-10-13T22:28:27+00:00	87.5%	43.2%	61.5%	37.9%	89.9%
2026-10-13T23:13:40+00:00	87.5%	43.2%	50.0%	40.6%	89.9%
2026-10-13T23:58:48+00:00	87.5%	43.2%	50.0%	40.4%	89.9%
2026-10-14T00:43:56+00:00	87.5%	43.2%	50.0%	40.4%	89.9%
2026-10-14T01:29:15+00:00	88.3%	43.2%	50.0%	40.4%	89.9%
2026-10-14T02:14:22+00:00	88.3%	43.2%	50.0%	40.4%	89.9%
2026-10-14T03:00:14+00:00	88.3%	43.2%	50.0%	40.4%	89.9%
2026-10-14T03:45:41+00:00	88.3%	43.2%	50.0%	40.4%	89.9%
2026-10-14T04:30:47+00:00	88.3%	43.2%	50.0%	40.4%	89.9%
2026-10-14T05:15:56+00:00	88.3%	43.2%	50.0%	40.4%	89.9%
2026-10-14T06:01:02+00:00	88.3%	43.2%	50.0%	40.4%	89.9%
2026-10-14T06:46:20+00:00	88.3%	43.2%	50.0%	40.4%	89.9%
2026-10-14T07:31:30+00:00	88.4%	43.2%	50.0%	40.4%	90.8%
2026-10-14T08:16:40+00:00	88.4%	43.2%	50.0%	40.4%	90.8%
2026-10-14T09:01:49+00:00	88.4%	43.2%	50.0%	40.4%	90.8%
2026-10-14T09:46:56+00:00	88.4%	43.2%	50.0%	40.4%	90.8%
2026-10-14T10:34:54+00:00	88.4%	43.2%	50.0%	43.6%	90.8%
2026-10-14T11:21:05+00:00	88.4%	46.9%	55.3%	43.6%	90.8%
2026-10-14T12:06:15+00:00	88.4%	46.9%	55.3%	43.6%	90.8%
2026-10-14T12:51:24+00:00	88.4%	46.9%	55.3%	43.6%	90.8%
2026-10-14T13:36:32+00:00	89.2%	46.9%	55.3%	43.6%	90.8%
2026-10-14T14:26:53+00:00	89.2%	46.9%	55.3%	43.6%	91.1%
2026-10-14T15:12:47+00:00	89.2%	46.9%	55.3%	43.6%	91.1%
2026-10-14T15:57:59+00:00	89.2%	46.9%	55.3%	43.6%	91.1%
2026-10-14T16:43:07+00:00	89.2%	46.9%	55.3%	43.6%	91.1%
2026-10-14T17:28:17+00:00	89.2%	46.9%	58.5%	43.6%	91.1%
2026-10-14T18:13:22+00:00	89.2%	46.9%	58.5%	43.6%	91.1%
2026-10-14T18:58:30+00:00	89.2%	46.9%	58.5%	43.6%	91.1%
2026-10-14T19:43:41+00:00	89.6%	46.9%	58.5%	61.8%	85.9%
2026-10-14T20:28:53+00:00	89.6%	46.9%	58.5%	61.8%	85.9%
2026-10-14T21:13:59+00:00	89.6%	46.9%	58.5%	61.8%	85.9%
2026-10-14T21:59:06+00:00	89.6%	46.9%	58.5%	61.8%	85.9%
2026-10-14T22:44:12+00:00	89.6%	46.9%	58.5%	61.8%	85.9%
2026-10-14T23:29:35+00:00	89.6%	46.9%	55.3%	61.8%	85.9%
2026-10-15T00:15:28+00:00	89.6%	46.9%	55.3%	61.8%	85.9%
2026-10-15T01:01:13+00:00	89.6%	46.9%	55.3%	61.8%	85.9%
2026-10-15T01:46:23+00:00	88.0%	46.9%	55.3%	61.8%	85.9%
2026-10-15T02:31:32+00:00	88.0%	46.9%	55.3%	61.8%	85.9%
2026-10-15T03:16:39+00:00	88.0%	46.9%	55.3%	61.8%	85.9%
2026-10-15T04:02:41+00:00	88.0%	46.9%	55.3%	61.8%	85.9%
2026-10-15T04:48:12+00:00	88.0%	46.9%	55.3%	61.8%	85.9%
2026-10-15T05:33:24+00:00	88.0%	46.9%	57.5%	61.8%	85.9%
2026-10-15T06:18:31+00:00	88.0%	46.9%	57.5%	61.8%	85.9%
2026-10-15T07:03:40+00:00	88.0%	46.9%	57.5%	61.8%	85.9%
2026-10-15T07:50:37+00:00	88.7%	46.9%	57.5%	41.1%	97.4%
2026-10-15T08:35:53+00:00	88.7%	46.9%	57.5%	41.1%	97.4%
2026-10-15T09:21:48+00:00	88.7%	46.9%	57.5%	41.1%	97.4%
2026-10-15T10:07:44+00:00	88.7%	46.9%	57.5%	41.1%	97.4%
2026-10-15T10:53:49+00:00	88.7%	46.9%	57.5%	41.1%	97.4%
2026-10-15T11:39:42+00:00	88.7%	46.9%	58.2%	41.1%	97.4%
2026-10-15T12:24:58+00:00	88.7%	50.0%	58.2%	41.1%	97.4%
2026-10-15T13:10:40+00:00	88.7%	50.0%	58.2%	41.1%	97.4%
2026-10-15T13:55:56+00:00	86.3%	50.0%	58.2%	41.1%	97.4%
2026-10-15T14:48:28+00:00	86.4%	50.0%	58.2%	41.1%	97.4%
2026-10-15T15:34:44+00:00	86.4%	50.9%	58.2%	41.1%	97.4%
2026-10-15T16:20:17+00:00	86.4%	50.9%	58.2%	41.1%	97.4%
2026-10-15T17:05:26+00:00	86.4%	50.9%	44.1%	41.1%	97.4%
2026-10-15T17:50:49+00:00	86.4%	50.9%	44.1%	41.1%	97.4%
2026-10-15T18:36:03+00:00	86.4%	50.9%	44.1%	41.1%	97.4%
2026-10-15T19:21:11+00:00	86.4%	50.9%	44.1%	41.1%	97.4%
2026-10-15T20:06:23+00:00	84.8%	50.9%	44.1%	36.9%	88.7%
2026-10-15T20:51:37+00:00	84.8%	50.9%	44.1%	36.9%	88.7%
2026-10-15T21:36:46+00:00	84.8%	50.9%	44.1%	36.9%	88.7%
2026-10-15T22:21:55+00:00	84.8%	50.9%	44.1%	36.9%	88.7%
2026-10-15T23:07:06+00:00	84.8%	50.9%	47.6%	36.9%	88.7%
2026-10-15T23:52:19+00:00	84.8%	50.9%	47.6%	36.9%	88.7%
2026-10-16T00:37:28+00:00	84.8%	50.9%	47.6%	36.9%	88.7%
2026-10-16T01:22:54+00:00	85.3%	50.9%	47.6%	36.9%	88.7%
2026-10-16T02:08:22+00:00	85.3%	50.9%	47.6%	36.9%	88.7%
2026-10-16T02:53:36+00:00	85.3%	50.9%	47.6%	36.9%	88.7%
2026-10-16T03:38:45+00:00	85.3%	50.9%	47.6%	36.9%	88.7%
2026-10-16T04:25:09+00:00	85.3%	50.9%	47.6%	36.9%	88.7%
2026-10-16T05:10:34+00:00	85.3%	50.9%	58.2%	36.9%	88.7%
2026-10-16T05:55:59+00:00	85.3%	50.9%	58.2%	36.9%	88.7%
2026-10-16T06:41:09+00:00	85.3%	50.9%	58.2%	36.9%	88.7%
2026-10-16T07:26:19+00:00	85.3%	50.9%	58.2%	36.9%	88.7%
2026-10-16T08:11:30+00:00	88.1%	50.9%	58.2%	36.9%	88.2%
2026-10-16T08:56:38+00:00	88.1%	50.9%	58.2%	36.9%	88.2%
2026-10-16T09:41:44+00:00	88.1%	50.9%	58.2%	36.9%	88.2%
2026-10-16T10:27:00+00:00	88.1%	50.9%	58.2%	36.9%	88.2%
2026-10-16T11:12:27+00:00	88.1%	49.1%	55.1%	36.9%	88.2%
2026-10-16T11:57:43+00:00	88.1%	49.1%	55.1%	36.9%	88.2%
2026-10-16T12:42:52+00:00	88.1%	49.1%	55.1%	36.9%	88.2%
2026-10-16T13:29:03+00:00	88.1%	49.1%	55.1%	36.9%	88.2%
2026-10-16T14:19:59+00:00	83.1%	49.2%	55.1%	68.7%	88.2%
2026-10-16T15:05:50+00:00	83.1%	50.8%	55.1%	68.7%	88.2%
2026-10-16T15:50:59+00:00	83.1%	50.8%	55.1%	68.7%	88.2%
2026-10-16T16:36:15+00:00	83.1%	50.8%	55.1%	68.7%	88.2%
2026-10-16T17:21:32+00:00	83.1%	50.8%	51.3%	68.7%	88.2%
2026-10-16T18:06:39+00:00	83.1%	50.8%	51.3%	68.7%	88.2%
2026-10-16T18:51:46+00:00	83.1%	50.8%	51.3%	68.7%	88.2%
2026-10-16T19:37:17+00:00	81.8%	50.8%	51.3%	68.7%	83.9%
2026-10-16T20:22:43+00:00	81.8%	50.8%	51.3%	68.7%	83.9%
2026-10-16T21:07:49+00:00	81.8%	50.8%	51.3%	68.7%	83.9%
2026-10-16T21:52:56+00:00	81.8%	50.8%	51.3%	68.7%	83.9%
2026-10-16T22:38:11+00:00	81.8%	50.8%	51.3%	61.5%	83.9%
2026-10-16T23:23:40+00:00	81.8%	50.8%	39.8%	61.5%	83.9%
2026-10-17T00:09:45+00:00	81.8%	50.8%	39.8%	61.5%	83.9%
2026-10-17T00:55:01+00:00	81.8%	50.8%	39.8%	61.5%	83.9%
2026-10-17T01:40:14+00:00	82.5%	50.8%	39.8%	61.5%	83.9%
2026-10-17T02:25:24+00:00	82.5%	50.8%	39.8%	61.5%	83.9%
2026-10-17T03:10:31+00:00	82.5%	50.8%	39.8%	61.5%	83.9%
2026-10-17T03:55:43+00:00	82.5%	50.8%	39.8%	61.5%	83.9%
2026-10-17T04:42:39+00:00	82.5%	50.8%	39.8%	61.5%	83.9%
2026-10-17T05:28:30+00:00	82.5%	50.8%	44.9%	61.5%	83.9%
2026-10-17T06:13:40+00:00	82.5%	50.8%	44.9%	61.5%	83.9%
2026-10-17T06:58:50+00:00	82.5%	50.8%	44.9%	61.5%	83.9%
2026-10-17T07:45:11+00:00	81.2%	50.8%	44.9%	34.3%	82.5%
2026-10-17T08:31:05+00:00	81.2%	50.8%	44.9%	34.3%	82.5%
2026-10-17T09:16:45+00:00	81.2%	50.8%	44.9%	34.3%	82.5%
2026-10-17T10:01:51+00:00	81.2%	50.8%	44.9%	34.3%	82.5%
2026-10-17T10:46:56+00:00	81.2%	50.8%	44.9%	34.3%	82.5%
2026-10-17T11:32:17+00:00	81.2%	45.5%	37.9%	34.3%	82.5%
2026-10-17T12:17:30+00:00	81.2%	45.5%	37.9%	34.3%	82.5%
2026-10-17T13:02:38+00:00	81.2%	45.5%	37.9%	34.3%	82.5%
2026-10-17T13:47:57+00:00	82.6%	45.5%	37.9%	34.3%	82.5%
2026-10-17T14:39:20+00:00	82.6%	45.6%	37.9%	34.3%	82.6%
2026-10-17T15:25:20+00:00	82.6%	49.2%	37.9%	34.3%	82.6%
2026-10-17T16:10:35+00:00	82.6%	49.2%	37.9%	34.3%	82.6%
2026-10-17T16:55:43+00:00	82.6%	49.2%	37.9%	34.3%	82.6%
2026-10-17T17:40:52+00:00	82.6%	49.2%	34.0%	34.3%	82.6%
2026-10-17T18:25:59+00:00	82.6%	49.2%	34.0%	34.3%	82.6%
2026-10-17T19:11:06+00:00	82.6%	49.2%	34.0%	34.3%	82.6%
2026-10-17T19:56:20+00:00	88.4%	49.2%	34.0%	54.3%	76.1%
2026-10-17T20:41:33+00:00	88.4%	49.2%	34.0%	54.3%	76.1%
2026-10-17T21:26:40+00:00	88.4%	49.2%	34.0%	54.3%	76.1%
2026-10-17T22:11:57+00:00	88.4%	49.2%	34.0%	54.3%	76.1%
2026-10-17T22:57:07+00:00	88.4%	49.2%	34.0%	54.3%	76.1%
2026-10-17T23:42:15+00:00	88.4%	49.2%	52.7%	54.3%	76.1%
2026-10-18T00:27:28+00:00	88.4%	49.2%	52.7%	54.3%	76.1%
2026-10-18T01:12:57+00:00	88.4%	49.2%	52.7%	54.3%	76.1%
2026-10-18T01:58:16+00:00	85.1%	49.2%	52.7%	54.3%	76.1%
2026-10-18T02:43:24+00:00	85.1%	49.2%	52.7%	54.3%	76.1%
2026-10-18T03:28:32+00:00	85.1%	49.2%	52.7%	54.3%	76.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	85%	87.6°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
ICON	76%	86.0°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	84.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-17 14:00	Pending
IFS HRES	54%	83.9°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	53%	83.7°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	49%	83.4°F	4.8°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
National Blend	44%	83.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 84°F · KLAX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLAX-20261018-TMAX-GE84
Opened Oct 13 · 15:41 UTC

Original listing: Los Angeles high ≥ 84°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗