KLAX / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Los Angeles, CAHigh ≥ 86°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST50%Oct 13 · 14:56 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

91%

82%

35%

26%

23%

Consensus

50%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 57.1¢Risks 57.10u

EPSNO 42.9¢Risks 42.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +42.90u · EPS −42.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	1.3%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	—	—	—	61.5%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	67.5%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	67.5%	—	—	—	—	68.0%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	89.2%	—	—	—	—	72.1%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	82.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	—	—	—	68.9%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	—	70.3%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	—	—	—	59.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—	72.6%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	40.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	19.6%	—	—	—	—	75.5%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	7.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	25.6%	—	—	—	—	91.6%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	26.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	61.0%	—	—	—	—	88.3%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	83.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	82.3%	—	39.8%	—	—	84.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	67.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	72.5%	—	83.6%	—	—	85.1%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	73.4%	—	50.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	51.3%	—	76.4%	—	—	83.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	64.9%	—	72.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	74.0%	—	—	86.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	58.2%	—	67.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	45.8%	81.1%	62.4%	3.8%	—	88.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	45.7%	—	47.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	51.5%	82.5%	42.7%	59.4%	—	88.3%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	61.1%	—	34.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	69.7%	82.6%	43.2%	48.5%	—	90.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	65.2%	—	47.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	54.8%	86.0%	35.9%	42.1%	—	89.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	57.3%	—	28.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	49.2%	72.8%	36.9%	56.6%	—	88.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	50.9%	17.3%	31.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	47.4%	73.1%	30.7%	57.0%	—	87.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	49.1%	77.1%	43.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	63.6%	23.0%	28.9%	—	90.6%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	46.2%	81.7%	19.6%	—	—	33.5%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	43.2%	88.9%	40.4%	75.3%	—	89.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	39.1%	81.7%	26.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	34.9%	70.6%	15.7%	55.1%	—	87.7%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	36.5%	78.7%	11.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	40.3%	75.3%	13.1%	58.7%	—	93.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	30.5%	70.4%	8.7%	0.4%	—	90.8%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	27.0%	70.0%	9.0%	35.2%	—	91.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	27.3%	71.7%	13.2%	8.2%	—	90.8%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	23.6%	79.2%	25.6%	6.3%	33.1%	84.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	24.8%	73.1%	20.9%	9.2%	—	87.8%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	35.6%	72.7%	22.0%	20.0%	61.9%	92.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	27.6%	66.2%	11.8%	24.2%	—	87.5%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	29.3%	68.2%	18.2%	10.2%	47.1%	85.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	20.2%	79.8%	14.4%	12.0%	—	88.8%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	19.2%	77.4%	11.7%	5.7%	46.8%	89.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	14.1%	81.9%	12.3%	10.7%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	91%	93.5°F	5.9°F	2026-10-13 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	82%	90.1°F	5.0°F	2026-10-13 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	86.0°F	5.1°F	2026-10-13 03:00	Pending
National Blend	46%	85.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-13 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	35%	83.9°F	4.1°F	2026-10-13 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	26%	81.7°F	5.8°F	2026-10-13 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	23%	82.9°F	3.5°F	2026-10-13 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 86°F · KLAX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLAX-20261018-TMAX-GE86
Opened Oct 12 · 04:02 UTC

Original listing: Los Angeles high ≥ 86°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗