KLAX / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Los Angeles, CAHigh ≥ 86°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST50%Oct 13 · 14:56 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

91%

82%

35%

26%

23%

Consensus

50%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 57.1¢Risks 57.10u

EPSNO 42.9¢Risks 42.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +42.90u · EPS −42.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-13T14:56:06+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-12T04:02:05+00:00	72.3%	27.4%	46.0%	51.9%	83.2%
2026-10-12T04:47:17+00:00	72.3%	27.4%	46.0%	51.9%	83.2%
2026-10-12T05:32:24+00:00	72.3%	27.4%	50.0%	51.9%	83.2%
2026-10-12T06:17:31+00:00	72.3%	27.4%	50.0%	51.9%	83.2%
2026-10-12T07:02:36+00:00	72.3%	27.4%	50.0%	51.9%	83.2%
2026-10-12T07:49:07+00:00	76.9%	27.4%	50.0%	43.9%	89.0%
2026-10-12T08:34:34+00:00	76.9%	27.4%	50.0%	43.9%	89.0%
2026-10-12T09:19:40+00:00	76.9%	27.4%	50.0%	43.9%	89.0%
2026-10-12T10:05:02+00:00	76.9%	27.4%	50.0%	43.9%	89.0%
2026-10-12T10:50:14+00:00	76.9%	27.4%	50.0%	43.9%	89.0%
2026-10-12T11:35:42+00:00	76.9%	27.4%	47.4%	43.9%	89.0%
2026-10-12T12:20:51+00:00	76.9%	27.4%	47.4%	43.9%	89.0%
2026-10-12T13:05:59+00:00	76.9%	27.4%	47.4%	43.9%	89.0%
2026-10-12T13:51:11+00:00	83.7%	27.4%	47.4%	43.9%	89.0%
2026-10-12T14:41:20+00:00	83.6%	27.7%	47.4%	43.9%	89.0%
2026-10-12T15:27:49+00:00	83.6%	27.7%	47.4%	43.9%	89.0%
2026-10-12T16:12:59+00:00	83.6%	27.0%	47.4%	43.9%	89.0%
2026-10-12T16:58:08+00:00	83.6%	26.6%	47.4%	43.9%	89.0%
2026-10-12T17:43:16+00:00	83.6%	26.6%	44.8%	43.9%	89.0%
2026-10-12T18:28:22+00:00	83.6%	26.6%	44.8%	43.9%	89.0%
2026-10-12T19:13:29+00:00	83.6%	26.6%	44.8%	43.9%	89.0%
2026-10-12T19:58:38+00:00	88.6%	26.6%	44.8%	60.8%	88.4%
2026-10-12T20:43:45+00:00	88.6%	26.6%	44.8%	60.8%	88.4%
2026-10-12T21:28:52+00:00	88.6%	26.6%	44.8%	60.8%	88.4%
2026-10-12T22:13:59+00:00	88.6%	26.6%	44.8%	60.8%	88.4%
2026-10-12T22:59:14+00:00	88.6%	26.6%	56.1%	60.8%	88.4%
2026-10-12T23:44:21+00:00	88.6%	26.6%	56.1%	60.8%	88.4%
2026-10-13T00:29:27+00:00	88.6%	26.6%	56.1%	60.8%	88.4%
2026-10-13T01:14:42+00:00	88.6%	26.6%	56.1%	60.8%	88.4%
2026-10-13T01:59:50+00:00	85.8%	26.6%	56.1%	60.8%	88.4%
2026-10-13T02:44:58+00:00	85.8%	26.6%	56.1%	60.8%	88.4%
2026-10-13T03:30:05+00:00	85.8%	26.6%	56.1%	60.8%	88.4%
2026-10-13T04:16:34+00:00	85.8%	26.6%	56.1%	60.8%	88.4%
2026-10-13T05:01:48+00:00	85.8%	26.6%	56.1%	60.8%	88.4%
2026-10-13T05:46:55+00:00	85.8%	26.6%	43.1%	60.8%	88.4%
2026-10-13T06:32:14+00:00	85.8%	26.6%	43.1%	60.8%	88.4%
2026-10-13T07:17:20+00:00	85.8%	26.6%	43.1%	60.8%	88.4%
2026-10-13T08:04:22+00:00	80.9%	26.6%	43.1%	25.5%	91.3%
2026-10-13T08:49:42+00:00	80.9%	26.6%	43.1%	25.5%	91.3%
2026-10-13T09:34:47+00:00	80.9%	26.6%	43.1%	25.5%	91.3%
2026-10-13T10:20:00+00:00	80.9%	26.6%	43.1%	25.5%	91.3%
2026-10-13T11:05:28+00:00	80.9%	26.6%	43.1%	25.5%	91.3%
2026-10-13T11:50:43+00:00	80.9%	22.9%	34.7%	25.5%	91.3%
2026-10-13T12:35:51+00:00	80.9%	22.9%	34.7%	25.5%	91.3%
2026-10-13T13:20:57+00:00	80.9%	22.9%	34.7%	25.5%	91.3%
2026-10-13T14:06:06+00:00	82.4%	22.9%	34.9%	25.5%	91.3%
2026-10-13T14:56:06+00:00	82.4%	22.9%	34.9%	25.5%	91.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	91%	93.5°F	5.9°F	2026-10-13 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	82%	90.1°F	5.0°F	2026-10-13 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	86.0°F	5.1°F	2026-10-13 03:00	Pending
National Blend	46%	85.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-13 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	35%	83.9°F	4.1°F	2026-10-13 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	26%	81.7°F	5.8°F	2026-10-13 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	23%	82.9°F	3.5°F	2026-10-13 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 86°F · KLAX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLAX-20261018-TMAX-GE86
Opened Oct 12 · 04:02 UTC

Original listing: Los Angeles high ≥ 86°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗