KLAX / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Los Angeles, CAHigh ≤ 67°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 17 · 06:58 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

19%

<1%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 9.6¢Risks 4.80u

EPSNO 90.4¢Risks 45.20u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +45.20u · EPS −45.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	31.6%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	—	0.2%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	18.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	—	0.2%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	—	—	—	0.4%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	0.2%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	—	—	—	0.2%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	5.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	17.1%	—	—	—	—	0.2%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	30.9%	—	—	—	—	0.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	23.1%	—	—	—	—	0.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	15.5%	—	2.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	1.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	9.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	11.6%	—	21.1%	—	—	4.3%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	10.6%	—	26.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	21.7%	—	39.1%	—	—	3.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	33.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	27.7%	78.2%	12.1%	—	—	3.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	23.9%	—	27.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	29.2%	2.3%	37.6%	38.9%	—	4.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	1.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	37.8%	38.5%	2.2%	35.7%	—	1.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	28.1%	—	7.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	23.9%	11.8%	30.9%	33.0%	—	0.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	24.7%	—	34.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	31.6%	30.9%	38.2%	10.8%	—	0.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	31.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	23.2%	30.0%	29.3%	15.7%	—	1.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	22.0%	30.3%	36.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	21.4%	1.7%	14.1%	6.5%	—	1.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	17.2%	6.6%	14.5%	—	—	0.7%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	6.3%	0.8%	16.6%	14.9%	—	0.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	10.8%	0.1%	20.3%	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.1%	13.6%	14.7%	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.7%	0.0%	10.0%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.0%	7.4%	2.4%	92.9%	0.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.0%	3.8%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.7%	1.1%	—	0.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.0%	0.8%	25.8%	—	0.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.0%	0.2%	1.5%	98.8%	0.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%	1.6%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	1.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	0.0%	0.0%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	19%	71.9°F	5.0°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	18%	71.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 03:00	Pending
National Blend	18%	71.0°F	3.8°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	2%	74.8°F	3.7°F	2026-10-16 18:00	Pending
AIFS Single	2%	76.8°F	4.6°F	2026-10-16 18:00	Pending
ICON	<1%	79.7°F	4.9°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	79.1°F	4.2°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 67°F · KLAX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLAX-20261020-TMAX-LE67
Opened Oct 16 · 14:19 UTC

Original listing: Los Angeles stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 67°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗