KLAX / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Los Angeles, CAHigh ≤ 67°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 17 · 06:58 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

19%

<1%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 9.6¢Risks 4.80u

EPSNO 90.4¢Risks 45.20u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +45.20u · EPS −45.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T06:58:50+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-16T14:19:59+00:00	3.5%	0.3%	5.3%	21.2%	0.9%
2026-10-16T15:05:50+00:00	3.5%	0.3%	5.3%	21.2%	0.9%
2026-10-16T15:50:59+00:00	3.5%	0.3%	5.3%	21.2%	0.9%
2026-10-16T16:36:15+00:00	3.5%	0.3%	5.3%	21.2%	0.9%
2026-10-16T17:21:32+00:00	3.5%	0.3%	5.1%	21.2%	0.9%
2026-10-16T18:06:40+00:00	3.5%	0.3%	5.1%	21.2%	0.9%
2026-10-16T18:51:46+00:00	3.5%	0.3%	5.1%	21.2%	0.9%
2026-10-16T19:37:17+00:00	1.0%	0.3%	5.1%	21.2%	0.6%
2026-10-16T20:22:43+00:00	1.0%	0.3%	5.1%	21.2%	0.6%
2026-10-16T21:07:49+00:00	1.0%	0.3%	5.1%	21.2%	0.6%
2026-10-16T21:52:56+00:00	1.0%	0.3%	5.1%	21.2%	0.6%
2026-10-16T22:38:11+00:00	1.0%	0.3%	5.1%	18.9%	0.6%
2026-10-16T23:23:40+00:00	1.0%	0.3%	1.9%	18.9%	0.6%
2026-10-17T00:09:45+00:00	1.0%	0.3%	1.9%	18.9%	0.6%
2026-10-17T00:55:01+00:00	1.0%	0.3%	1.9%	18.9%	0.6%
2026-10-17T01:40:14+00:00	2.1%	0.3%	1.9%	18.9%	0.6%
2026-10-17T02:25:24+00:00	2.1%	0.3%	1.9%	18.9%	0.6%
2026-10-17T03:10:31+00:00	2.1%	0.3%	1.9%	18.9%	0.6%
2026-10-17T03:55:43+00:00	2.1%	0.3%	1.9%	18.9%	0.6%
2026-10-17T04:42:39+00:00	2.1%	0.3%	1.9%	18.9%	0.6%
2026-10-17T05:28:30+00:00	2.1%	0.3%	2.5%	18.9%	0.6%
2026-10-17T06:13:40+00:00	2.1%	0.3%	2.5%	18.9%	0.6%
2026-10-17T06:58:50+00:00	2.1%	0.3%	2.5%	18.9%	0.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	19%	71.9°F	5.0°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	18%	71.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 03:00	Pending
National Blend	18%	71.0°F	3.8°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	2%	74.8°F	3.7°F	2026-10-16 18:00	Pending
AIFS Single	2%	76.8°F	4.6°F	2026-10-16 18:00	Pending
ICON	<1%	79.7°F	4.9°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	79.1°F	4.2°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 67°F · KLAX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLAX-20261020-TMAX-LE67
Opened Oct 16 · 14:19 UTC

Original listing: Los Angeles stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 67°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗