KLAX / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Los Angeles, CAHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST70%Oct 19 · 12:06 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

85%

81%

75%

61%

53%

Consensus

70%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 69.0¢Risks 69.05u

HRESNO 30.9¢Risks 30.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +30.95u · HRES −30.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	IFS*
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	62.1%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	93.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	88.5%	—	—	—	99.7%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	92.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	94.8%	—	—	—	99.5%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	63.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	99.4%	—	—	—	99.1%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	99.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	92.1%	—	—	—	99.7%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	99.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	—	—	99.6%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	69.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	80.3%	—	—	—	99.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	77.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	82.8%	—	—	—	99.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	81.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	68.5%	—	—	—	98.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	86.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	79.6%	—	—	—	96.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	92.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	78.3%	—	—	—	91.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	72.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	45.9%	—	—	—	95.3%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	65.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	69.2%	—	—	—	95.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	87.4%	—	71.1%	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	86.1%	—	65.3%	—	91.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	70.2%	—	42.4%	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	52.6%	—	52.6%	—	95.7%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	61.1%	—	75.8%	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	46.0%	5.2%	75.1%	—	85.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	58.2%	—	80.1%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	43.7%	74.8%	72.0%	8.5%	80.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	28.9%	—	59.9%	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	41.3%	75.7%	80.1%	51.5%	76.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	44.0%	—	70.7%	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	49.2%	76.1%	62.7%	61.3%	82.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	43.8%	—	71.5%	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	30.9%	73.9%	75.8%	42.1%	84.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	31.2%	—	75.0%	—	86.1%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	74.9%	63.9%	70.7%	82.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	34.2%	39.0%	62.6%	—	77.4%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	33.0%	71.6%	73.8%	67.8%	79.8%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	36.8%	70.6%	75.8%	—	75.8%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	36.4%	86.7%	74.9%	71.8%	75.6%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	40.6%	84.6%	71.6%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	51.0%	53.9%	67.0%	61.5%	74.5%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	70.1%	62.8%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	85%	72.0°F	4.3°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	81%	70.5°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	75%	73.1°F	8.3°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	61%	68.6°F	4.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	68.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	68.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	53%	67.8°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KLAX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLAX-20261022-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 16 · 04:25 UTC

Original listing: Los Angeles high ≥ 68°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗