KLAX / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Los Angeles, CAHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST70%Oct 19 · 12:06 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

85%

81%

75%

61%

53%

Consensus

70%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 69.0¢Risks 69.05u

HRESNO 30.9¢Risks 30.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +30.95u · HRES −30.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T12:06:41+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-16T04:25:11+00:00	59.0%	67.5%	78.4%	56.8%	80.1%
2026-10-16T05:10:34+00:00	59.0%	67.5%	79.0%	56.8%	80.1%
2026-10-16T05:55:59+00:00	59.0%	67.5%	79.0%	56.8%	80.1%
2026-10-16T06:41:09+00:00	59.0%	67.5%	79.0%	56.8%	80.1%
2026-10-16T07:26:19+00:00	59.0%	67.5%	79.0%	56.8%	80.1%
2026-10-16T08:11:30+00:00	71.7%	67.5%	79.0%	56.8%	85.1%
2026-10-16T08:56:38+00:00	71.7%	67.5%	79.0%	56.8%	85.1%
2026-10-16T09:41:44+00:00	71.7%	67.5%	79.0%	56.8%	85.1%
2026-10-16T10:27:00+00:00	71.7%	67.5%	79.0%	56.8%	85.1%
2026-10-16T11:12:27+00:00	71.7%	61.5%	83.8%	56.8%	85.1%
2026-10-16T11:57:44+00:00	71.7%	61.5%	83.8%	56.8%	85.1%
2026-10-16T12:42:52+00:00	71.7%	61.5%	83.8%	56.8%	85.1%
2026-10-16T13:29:03+00:00	71.7%	61.5%	83.8%	56.8%	85.1%
2026-10-16T14:20:00+00:00	74.1%	61.5%	83.8%	64.2%	85.4%
2026-10-16T15:05:50+00:00	74.1%	63.0%	83.8%	64.2%	85.4%
2026-10-16T15:50:59+00:00	74.1%	63.1%	83.8%	64.2%	85.4%
2026-10-16T16:36:15+00:00	74.1%	63.1%	83.8%	64.2%	85.4%
2026-10-16T17:21:32+00:00	74.1%	63.1%	82.1%	64.2%	85.4%
2026-10-16T18:06:40+00:00	74.1%	63.1%	82.1%	64.2%	85.4%
2026-10-16T18:51:46+00:00	74.1%	63.1%	82.1%	64.2%	85.4%
2026-10-16T19:37:17+00:00	77.6%	63.1%	82.1%	64.2%	85.0%
2026-10-16T20:22:43+00:00	77.6%	63.1%	82.1%	64.2%	85.0%
2026-10-16T21:07:49+00:00	77.6%	63.1%	82.1%	64.2%	85.0%
2026-10-16T21:52:56+00:00	77.6%	63.1%	82.1%	64.2%	85.0%
2026-10-16T22:38:11+00:00	77.6%	63.1%	82.1%	70.2%	85.0%
2026-10-16T23:23:40+00:00	77.6%	63.1%	82.1%	70.2%	85.0%
2026-10-17T00:09:45+00:00	77.6%	63.1%	82.1%	70.2%	85.0%
2026-10-17T00:55:01+00:00	77.6%	63.1%	82.1%	70.2%	85.0%
2026-10-17T01:40:14+00:00	74.1%	63.1%	82.1%	70.2%	85.0%
2026-10-17T02:25:24+00:00	74.1%	63.1%	82.1%	70.2%	85.0%
2026-10-17T03:10:31+00:00	74.1%	63.1%	82.1%	70.2%	85.0%
2026-10-17T03:55:43+00:00	74.1%	63.1%	82.1%	70.2%	85.0%
2026-10-17T04:42:39+00:00	74.1%	63.1%	82.1%	70.2%	85.0%
2026-10-17T05:28:30+00:00	74.1%	63.1%	82.1%	70.2%	85.0%
2026-10-17T06:13:40+00:00	74.1%	63.1%	82.1%	70.2%	85.0%
2026-10-17T06:58:50+00:00	74.1%	63.1%	82.1%	70.2%	85.0%
2026-10-17T07:45:15+00:00	64.9%	63.1%	82.1%	71.0%	83.6%
2026-10-17T08:31:05+00:00	64.9%	63.1%	82.1%	71.0%	83.6%
2026-10-17T09:16:45+00:00	64.9%	63.1%	82.1%	71.0%	83.6%
2026-10-17T10:01:51+00:00	64.9%	63.1%	82.1%	71.0%	83.6%
2026-10-17T10:46:56+00:00	64.9%	63.1%	82.1%	71.0%	83.6%
2026-10-17T11:32:17+00:00	64.9%	77.1%	84.1%	71.0%	83.6%
2026-10-17T12:17:30+00:00	64.9%	77.1%	84.1%	71.0%	83.6%
2026-10-17T13:02:38+00:00	64.9%	77.1%	84.1%	71.0%	83.6%
2026-10-17T13:47:57+00:00	65.7%	77.1%	84.1%	71.0%	83.6%
2026-10-17T14:39:20+00:00	65.7%	76.9%	84.1%	71.0%	83.2%
2026-10-17T15:25:20+00:00	65.7%	77.1%	84.1%	71.0%	83.2%
2026-10-17T16:10:35+00:00	65.7%	77.1%	84.1%	71.0%	83.2%
2026-10-17T16:55:43+00:00	65.7%	77.1%	84.1%	71.0%	83.2%
2026-10-17T17:40:52+00:00	65.7%	77.1%	76.7%	71.0%	83.2%
2026-10-17T18:25:59+00:00	65.7%	77.1%	76.7%	71.0%	83.2%
2026-10-17T19:11:06+00:00	65.7%	77.1%	76.7%	71.0%	83.2%
2026-10-17T19:56:20+00:00	67.9%	77.1%	76.7%	66.7%	83.2%
2026-10-17T20:41:33+00:00	67.9%	77.1%	76.7%	66.7%	83.2%
2026-10-17T21:26:40+00:00	67.9%	77.1%	76.7%	66.7%	83.2%
2026-10-17T22:11:57+00:00	67.9%	77.1%	76.7%	66.7%	83.2%
2026-10-17T22:57:07+00:00	67.9%	77.1%	76.7%	66.7%	83.2%
2026-10-17T23:42:15+00:00	67.9%	77.1%	73.7%	66.7%	83.2%
2026-10-18T00:27:28+00:00	67.9%	77.1%	73.7%	66.7%	83.2%
2026-10-18T01:12:57+00:00	67.9%	77.1%	73.7%	66.7%	83.2%
2026-10-18T01:58:16+00:00	68.6%	77.1%	73.7%	66.7%	83.2%
2026-10-18T02:43:24+00:00	68.6%	77.1%	73.7%	66.7%	83.2%
2026-10-18T03:28:32+00:00	68.6%	77.1%	73.7%	66.7%	83.2%
2026-10-18T04:14:56+00:00	68.6%	77.1%	73.7%	66.7%	83.2%
2026-10-18T05:00:16+00:00	68.6%	77.1%	74.4%	66.7%	83.2%
2026-10-18T05:45:23+00:00	68.6%	77.1%	74.4%	66.7%	83.2%
2026-10-18T06:30:29+00:00	68.6%	77.1%	74.4%	66.7%	83.2%
2026-10-18T07:15:40+00:00	68.6%	77.1%	74.4%	66.7%	83.2%
2026-10-18T08:01:55+00:00	69.9%	77.1%	74.4%	65.5%	81.1%
2026-10-18T08:47:14+00:00	69.9%	77.1%	74.4%	65.5%	81.1%
2026-10-18T09:32:22+00:00	69.9%	77.1%	74.4%	65.5%	81.1%
2026-10-18T10:17:30+00:00	69.9%	77.1%	74.4%	65.5%	81.1%
2026-10-18T11:03:02+00:00	69.9%	77.1%	74.4%	65.5%	81.1%
2026-10-18T11:48:19+00:00	69.9%	74.4%	73.1%	65.5%	81.1%
2026-10-18T12:33:57+00:00	69.9%	74.4%	73.1%	65.5%	81.1%
2026-10-18T13:19:04+00:00	69.9%	74.4%	73.1%	65.5%	81.1%
2026-10-18T14:04:15+00:00	72.9%	74.3%	73.1%	65.5%	81.1%
2026-10-18T14:56:12+00:00	72.9%	74.3%	73.1%	65.5%	81.1%
2026-10-18T15:41:41+00:00	72.9%	74.9%	73.1%	65.5%	81.1%
2026-10-18T16:27:01+00:00	72.9%	74.9%	73.1%	65.5%	81.1%
2026-10-18T17:12:11+00:00	72.9%	74.9%	72.2%	65.5%	81.1%
2026-10-18T17:57:35+00:00	72.9%	74.9%	72.2%	65.5%	81.1%
2026-10-18T18:42:49+00:00	72.9%	74.9%	72.2%	65.5%	81.1%
2026-10-18T19:28:02+00:00	72.9%	74.9%	72.2%	65.5%	81.1%
2026-10-18T20:13:10+00:00	72.9%	74.9%	72.2%	58.7%	90.9%
2026-10-18T20:58:19+00:00	72.9%	74.9%	72.2%	58.7%	90.9%
2026-10-18T21:43:28+00:00	72.9%	74.9%	72.2%	58.7%	90.9%
2026-10-18T22:28:35+00:00	72.9%	74.9%	72.2%	58.7%	90.9%
2026-10-18T23:13:45+00:00	72.9%	74.9%	74.9%	58.7%	90.9%
2026-10-18T23:58:57+00:00	72.9%	74.9%	74.9%	58.7%	90.9%
2026-10-19T00:44:11+00:00	72.9%	74.9%	74.9%	58.7%	90.9%
2026-10-19T01:29:39+00:00	76.4%	74.9%	74.9%	58.7%	90.9%
2026-10-19T02:14:48+00:00	76.4%	74.9%	74.9%	58.7%	90.9%
2026-10-19T03:00:00+00:00	76.4%	74.9%	74.9%	58.7%	90.9%
2026-10-19T03:45:06+00:00	76.4%	74.9%	74.9%	58.7%	90.9%
2026-10-19T04:31:34+00:00	76.4%	74.9%	74.9%	58.7%	90.9%
2026-10-19T05:17:08+00:00	76.4%	74.9%	81.2%	58.7%	90.9%
2026-10-19T06:02:16+00:00	76.4%	74.9%	81.2%	58.7%	90.9%
2026-10-19T06:47:24+00:00	76.4%	74.9%	81.2%	58.7%	90.9%
2026-10-19T07:33:53+00:00	85.4%	74.9%	81.2%	52.7%	60.9%
2026-10-19T08:19:25+00:00	85.4%	74.9%	81.2%	52.7%	60.9%
2026-10-19T09:04:30+00:00	85.4%	74.9%	81.2%	52.7%	60.9%
2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:00	85.4%	74.9%	81.2%	52.7%	60.9%
2026-10-19T10:35:27+00:00	85.4%	74.9%	81.2%	52.7%	60.9%
2026-10-19T11:21:20+00:00	85.4%	75.1%	81.3%	52.7%	60.9%
2026-10-19T12:06:41+00:00	85.4%	75.1%	81.3%	52.7%	60.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	85%	72.0°F	4.3°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	81%	70.5°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	75%	73.1°F	8.3°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	61%	68.6°F	4.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	68.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	68.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	53%	67.8°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KLAX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLAX-20261022-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 16 · 04:25 UTC

Original listing: Los Angeles high ≥ 68°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗