KLAX / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Los Angeles, CAHigh ≥ 72°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST69%Oct 17 · 10:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

88%

84%

62%

50%

38%

Consensus

69%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 63.2¢Risks 63.20u

ICONNO 36.8¢Risks 36.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +36.80u · ICON −36.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	IFS*
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	—	—	41.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	72.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	—	—	96.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	69.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	74.8%	—	—	—	97.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	66.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	74.8%	—	—	—	97.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	74.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	80.7%	—	—	—	97.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	89.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	—	—	95.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	96.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	63.6%	—	—	—	89.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	71.7%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	57.9%	—	—	—	85.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	66.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	81.5%	—	—	—	89.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	75.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	96.5%	—	—	—	85.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	87.2%	—	30.2%	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	91.0%	—	—	—	83.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	96.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	55.9%	—	—	—	87.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	57.7%	—	82.7%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	56.0%	—	—	—	87.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	53.1%	—	90.8%	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	73.0%	—	—	—	81.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	80.2%	—	46.8%	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	88.6%	—	58.4%	—	92.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	84.1%	—	38.2%	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	68.8%	9.9%	81.1%	—	82.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	72.7%	—	78.2%	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	67.0%	82.9%	75.9%	23.5%	86.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	67.3%	—	89.6%	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	82.5%	80.6%	96.5%	66.3%	92.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	85.3%	—	93.5%	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	77.8%	82.6%	86.7%	90.7%	92.2%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	78.3%	—	96.7%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	83.7%	93.6%	97.8%	85.5%	92.8%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	—	92.4%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	88%	78.3°F	5.8°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	84%	76.9°F	5.5°F	2026-10-16 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	62%	73.5°F	6.5°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
National Blend	54%	72.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	50%	71.5°F	5.3°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
ICON	38%	68.5°F	9.9°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 72°F · KLAX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLAX-20261024-TMAX-GE72
Opened Oct 17 · 07:45 UTC

Original listing: Los Angeles high ≥ 72°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗