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KLAX / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Los Angeles, CAHigh ≥ 72°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST69%Oct 17 · 10:46 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
88%
WN2
84%
HRES
62%
EPS
50%
ICON
38%
Consensus
69%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 63.2¢Risks 63.20u
VS
ICONNO 36.8¢Risks 36.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +36.80u · ICON −36.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 88.2% · 2026-10-17T07:45:15+00:00AIFS Single: 88.2% · 2026-10-17T08:31:05+00:00AIFS Single: 88.2% · 2026-10-17T09:16:45+00:00AIFS Single: 88.2% · 2026-10-17T10:01:51+00:00AIFS Single: 88.2% · 2026-10-17T10:46:56+00:00IFS Ensemble: 50.0% · 2026-10-17T07:45:15+00:00IFS Ensemble: 50.0% · 2026-10-17T08:31:05+00:00IFS Ensemble: 50.0% · 2026-10-17T09:16:45+00:00IFS Ensemble: 50.0% · 2026-10-17T10:01:51+00:00IFS Ensemble: 50.0% · 2026-10-17T10:46:56+00:00WeatherNext 2: 83.9% · 2026-10-17T07:45:15+00:00WeatherNext 2: 83.9% · 2026-10-17T08:31:05+00:00WeatherNext 2: 83.9% · 2026-10-17T09:16:45+00:00WeatherNext 2: 83.9% · 2026-10-17T10:01:51+00:00WeatherNext 2: 83.9% · 2026-10-17T10:46:56+00:00IFS HRES: 62.2% · 2026-10-17T07:45:15+00:00IFS HRES: 62.2% · 2026-10-17T08:31:05+00:00IFS HRES: 62.2% · 2026-10-17T09:16:45+00:00IFS HRES: 62.2% · 2026-10-17T10:01:51+00:00IFS HRES: 62.2% · 2026-10-17T10:46:56+00:00ICON: 38.2% · 2026-10-17T07:45:15+00:00ICON: 38.2% · 2026-10-17T08:31:05+00:00ICON: 38.2% · 2026-10-17T09:16:45+00:00ICON: 38.2% · 2026-10-17T10:01:51+00:00ICON: 38.2% · 2026-10-17T10:46:56+00:0010-17 07:4510-17 09:1610-17 10:46
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-17T10:46:56+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-17T07:45:15+00:0088.2%50.0%83.9%62.2%38.2%
2026-10-17T08:31:05+00:0088.2%50.0%83.9%62.2%38.2%
2026-10-17T09:16:45+00:0088.2%50.0%83.9%62.2%38.2%
2026-10-17T10:01:51+00:0088.2%50.0%83.9%62.2%38.2%
2026-10-17T10:46:56+00:0088.2%50.0%83.9%62.2%38.2%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
AIFS Single88%78.3°F5.8°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 284%76.9°F5.5°F2026-10-16 18:00Pending
IFS HRES62%73.5°F6.5°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
National Blend54%72.0°F5.5°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble50%71.5°F5.3°F2026-10-16 00:00Pending
ICON38%68.5°F9.9°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 72°F · KLAX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLAX-20261024-TMAX-GE72
Opened Oct 17 · 07:45 UTC

Original listing: Los Angeles high ≥ 72°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗