KLAX / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Los Angeles, CAHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST79%Oct 19 · 10:35 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

92%

87%

79%

57%

51%

Consensus

79%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 71.5¢Risks 71.55u

ICONNO 28.4¢Risks 28.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +28.45u · ICON −28.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	IFS*
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	32.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	66.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	91.7%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	96.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	—	86.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	78.8%	—	—	83.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	77.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	70.8%	—	—	89.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	78.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	90.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	—	78.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	93.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	63.1%	—	—	88.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	80.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	66.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	—	72.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	24.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	71.1%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	29.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	54.1%	—	—	60.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	47.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	28.2%	—	46.4%	55.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	28.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	41.9%	—	93.9%	61.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	69.6%	—	86.6%	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	73.8%	—	46.8%	79.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	79.2%	—	94.5%	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	76.2%	22.8%	98.4%	87.5%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	—	99.1%	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	92%	80.7°F	5.8°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	87%	79.9°F	6.5°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	79%	77.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	57%	74.0°F	8.5°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
National Blend	53%	73.0°F	6.6°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	51%	72.7°F	10.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KLAX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLAX-20261026-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 19 · 07:33 UTC

Original listing: Los Angeles high ≥ 73°F · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗