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KLAX / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Los Angeles, CAHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST79%Oct 19 · 10:35 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
92%
HRES
87%
WN2
79%
EPS
57%
ICON
51%
Consensus
79%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 71.5¢Risks 71.55u
VS
ICONNO 28.4¢Risks 28.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +28.45u · ICON −28.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 92.3% · 2026-10-19T07:33:53+00:00AIFS Single: 92.3% · 2026-10-19T08:19:25+00:00AIFS Single: 92.3% · 2026-10-19T09:04:30+00:00AIFS Single: 92.3% · 2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:00AIFS Single: 92.3% · 2026-10-19T10:35:27+00:00IFS Ensemble: 57.0% · 2026-10-19T07:33:53+00:00IFS Ensemble: 57.0% · 2026-10-19T08:19:25+00:00IFS Ensemble: 57.0% · 2026-10-19T09:04:30+00:00IFS Ensemble: 57.0% · 2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:00IFS Ensemble: 57.0% · 2026-10-19T10:35:27+00:00WeatherNext 2: 79.4% · 2026-10-19T07:33:53+00:00WeatherNext 2: 79.4% · 2026-10-19T08:19:25+00:00WeatherNext 2: 79.4% · 2026-10-19T09:04:30+00:00WeatherNext 2: 79.4% · 2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:00WeatherNext 2: 79.4% · 2026-10-19T10:35:27+00:00IFS HRES: 87.4% · 2026-10-19T07:33:53+00:00IFS HRES: 87.4% · 2026-10-19T08:19:25+00:00IFS HRES: 87.4% · 2026-10-19T09:04:30+00:00IFS HRES: 87.4% · 2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:00IFS HRES: 87.4% · 2026-10-19T10:35:27+00:00ICON: 50.8% · 2026-10-19T07:33:53+00:00ICON: 50.8% · 2026-10-19T08:19:25+00:00ICON: 50.8% · 2026-10-19T09:04:30+00:00ICON: 50.8% · 2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:00ICON: 50.8% · 2026-10-19T10:35:27+00:0010-19 07:3310-19 09:0410-19 10:35
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-19T10:35:27+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-19T07:33:53+00:0092.3%57.0%79.4%87.4%50.8%
2026-10-19T08:19:25+00:0092.3%57.0%79.4%87.4%50.8%
2026-10-19T09:04:30+00:0092.3%57.0%79.4%87.4%50.8%
2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:0092.3%57.0%79.4%87.4%50.8%
2026-10-19T10:35:27+00:0092.3%57.0%79.4%87.4%50.8%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
AIFS Single92%80.7°F5.8°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
IFS HRES87%79.9°F6.5°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 279%77.0°F5.5°F2026-10-18 18:00Pending
IFS Ensemble57%74.0°F8.5°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
National Blend53%73.0°F6.6°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
ICON51%72.7°F10.0°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KLAX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLAX-20261026-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 19 · 07:33 UTC

Original listing: Los Angeles high ≥ 73°F · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗