KLGA / Fri Oct 16 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

New York, NYHigh ≥ 73°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 14 · 02:59 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

97%

90%

53%

53%

36%

Consensus

71%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 66.5¢Risks 66.50u

WN2NO 33.5¢Risks 33.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +33.50u · WN2 −33.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	3.0%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	—	13.4%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	33.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	15.6%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	68.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	—	14.0%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	—	—	—	14.9%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	9.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—	12.8%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	—	—	—	18.2%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	15.8%	—	—	—	—	12.5%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	14.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	—	—	—	10.5%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	—	—	—	5.2%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	0.5%	—	—	2.8%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—	—	4.4%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	2.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	73.6%	—	—	9.3%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	62.0%	—	44.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	78.3%	—	91.7%	—	—	12.3%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	43.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	44.6%	1.4%	15.9%	—	—	5.4%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	5.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	12.6%	6.3%	21.9%	3.2%	—	5.8%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	4.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	19.9%	14.8%	3.9%	2.4%	—	5.3%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	4.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	25.1%	64.9%	5.4%	0.1%	—	6.3%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	15.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	20.6%	0.2%	3.8%	1.4%	—	12.3%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	13.0%	0.2%	36.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	6.6%	50.0%	43.4%	0.1%	—	40.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	3.0%	0.2%	87.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	4.1%	0.6%	26.9%	57.0%	—	17.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	19.0%	19.6%	23.5%	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	13.4%	3.2%	45.4%	66.1%	—	31.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	10.0%	21.7%	59.4%	—	—	31.8%
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	9.0%	94.9%	70.4%	57.7%	—	52.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	13.5%	61.8%	88.6%	—	—	75.1%
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	10.3%	95.8%	65.1%	84.3%	—	67.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	16.3%	87.4%	44.7%	—	—	66.5%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	18.3%	46.7%	22.1%	51.1%	—	71.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	15.4%	75.1%	27.6%	0.1%	—	63.3%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	14.0%	57.0%	66.9%	71.0%	63.7%	68.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	19.1%	91.8%	93.0%	83.3%	—	69.6%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	17.4%	96.3%	80.9%	69.2%	93.3%	74.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	20.0%	87.8%	88.5%	79.1%	—	85.0%
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	10.7%	78.0%	63.2%	77.0%	95.7%	85.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	6.7%	88.2%	72.4%	70.0%	—	82.7%
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	7.3%	85.4%	78.8%	74.4%	99.0%	87.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	7.5%	89.5%	95.2%	67.5%	—	88.8%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	4.4%	82.9%	93.9%	43.7%	96.6%	77.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	4.1%	54.9%	85.0%	43.4%	—	63.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	97%	79.9°F	4.0°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.0010
IFS HRES	90%	78.3°F	4.5°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.0094
NWS forecast	55%	73.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-13 14:00	0.2016
IFS Ensemble	53%	73.2°F	8.1°F	2026-10-13 00:00	0.2172
AIFS Single	53%	72.8°F	4.3°F	2026-10-13 18:00	0.2228
National Blend	47%	72.0°F	6.2°F	2026-10-13 06:00	0.2830
WeatherNext 2	36%	71.3°F	3.4°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.4083

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KLGA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLGA-20261016-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 12 · 15:26 UTC

Original listing: New York high ≥ 73°F · Fri Oct 16

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗