KLGA / Fri Oct 16 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

New York, NYHigh ≥ 73°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 14 · 02:59 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

97%

90%

53%

53%

36%

Consensus

71%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 66.5¢Risks 66.50u

WN2NO 33.5¢Risks 33.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +33.50u · WN2 −33.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-14T02:59:23+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-12T15:26:24+00:00	50.9%	37.1%	36.4%	25.5%	2.1%
2026-10-12T16:12:53+00:00	50.9%	36.2%	36.4%	25.5%	2.1%
2026-10-12T16:58:00+00:00	50.9%	36.0%	36.4%	25.5%	2.1%
2026-10-12T17:43:10+00:00	50.9%	36.0%	72.2%	25.5%	2.1%
2026-10-12T18:28:17+00:00	50.9%	36.0%	72.2%	25.5%	2.1%
2026-10-12T19:13:23+00:00	50.9%	36.0%	72.2%	25.5%	2.1%
2026-10-12T19:58:30+00:00	43.1%	36.0%	72.2%	91.0%	9.1%
2026-10-12T20:43:40+00:00	43.1%	36.0%	72.2%	91.0%	9.1%
2026-10-12T21:28:47+00:00	43.1%	36.0%	72.2%	91.0%	9.1%
2026-10-12T22:13:54+00:00	43.1%	36.0%	72.2%	91.0%	9.1%
2026-10-12T22:59:03+00:00	43.1%	36.0%	53.2%	91.0%	9.1%
2026-10-12T23:44:15+00:00	43.1%	36.0%	53.2%	91.0%	9.1%
2026-10-13T00:29:21+00:00	43.1%	36.0%	53.2%	91.0%	9.1%
2026-10-13T01:14:37+00:00	43.1%	36.0%	53.2%	91.0%	9.1%
2026-10-13T01:59:44+00:00	38.1%	36.0%	53.2%	91.0%	9.1%
2026-10-13T02:44:53+00:00	38.1%	36.0%	53.2%	91.0%	9.1%
2026-10-13T03:29:59+00:00	38.1%	36.0%	53.2%	91.0%	9.1%
2026-10-13T15:41:11+00:00	46.3%	53.4%	50.0%	96.8%	96.9%
2026-10-13T16:27:00+00:00	46.3%	53.4%	50.0%	96.8%	96.9%
2026-10-13T17:12:07+00:00	46.3%	53.4%	42.9%	96.8%	96.9%
2026-10-13T17:57:15+00:00	46.3%	53.4%	42.9%	96.8%	96.9%
2026-10-13T18:42:20+00:00	46.3%	53.4%	42.9%	96.8%	96.9%
2026-10-13T19:27:26+00:00	46.3%	53.4%	42.9%	96.8%	96.9%
2026-10-13T20:12:31+00:00	41.7%	53.4%	42.9%	96.8%	96.9%
2026-10-13T20:57:40+00:00	41.7%	53.4%	42.9%	96.8%	96.9%
2026-10-13T21:42:47+00:00	41.7%	53.4%	42.9%	96.8%	96.9%
2026-10-13T22:28:21+00:00	41.7%	53.4%	42.9%	96.8%	96.9%
2026-10-13T23:13:31+00:00	41.7%	53.4%	36.1%	90.3%	96.9%
2026-10-13T23:58:41+00:00	41.7%	53.4%	36.1%	90.3%	96.9%
2026-10-14T00:43:50+00:00	41.7%	53.4%	36.1%	90.3%	96.9%
2026-10-14T01:29:06+00:00	52.8%	53.4%	36.1%	90.3%	96.9%
2026-10-14T02:14:15+00:00	52.8%	53.4%	36.1%	90.3%	96.9%
2026-10-14T02:59:23+00:00	52.8%	53.4%	36.1%	90.3%	96.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	97%	79.9°F	4.0°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.0010
IFS HRES	90%	78.3°F	4.5°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.0094
NWS forecast	55%	73.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-13 14:00	0.2016
IFS Ensemble	53%	73.2°F	8.1°F	2026-10-13 00:00	0.2172
AIFS Single	53%	72.8°F	4.3°F	2026-10-13 18:00	0.2228
National Blend	47%	72.0°F	6.2°F	2026-10-13 06:00	0.2830
WeatherNext 2	36%	71.3°F	3.4°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.4083

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KLGA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLGA-20261016-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 12 · 15:26 UTC

Original listing: New York high ≥ 73°F · Fri Oct 16

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗