KLGA / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

New York, NYHigh ≥ 60°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 12 · 03:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

78%

72%

42%

27%

24%

Consensus

47%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 50.6¢Risks 50.65u

AIFSNO 49.4¢Risks 49.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +49.35u · AIFS −49.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	62.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	75.2%	—	—	—	—	73.0%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	62.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	74.3%	—	—	—	—	67.0%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	89.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	72.1%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	57.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	85.4%	—	—	—	—	74.3%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	73.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	71.7%	—	—	—	—	85.4%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	—	76.0%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	88.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	80.0%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	66.6%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	28.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	31.9%	—	—	—	—	61.9%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	89.7%	—	—	—	—	65.0%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	44.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	70.2%	—	94.7%	—	—	74.1%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	68.9%	—	90.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	72.4%	—	99.2%	—	—	80.3%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	63.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	88.1%	—	79.4%	—	—	72.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	60.7%	—	92.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	87.4%	—	83.6%	—	—	63.4%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	38.2%	—	83.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	40.6%	88.6%	89.2%	—	—	54.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	49.3%	—	91.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	27.5%	95.1%	84.2%	21.4%	—	59.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	23.1%	—	93.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	32.3%	—	94.3%	52.9%	—	58.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	96.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	8.7%	54.6%	60.6%	18.9%	—	51.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	71.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	8.4%	54.8%	52.4%	86.9%	—	34.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	23.1%	54.9%	68.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	27.9%	60.7%	63.1%	55.0%	—	36.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	23.3%	74.0%	54.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	40.5%	98.0%	51.7%	39.6%	—	33.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	51.8%	61.5%	85.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	38.2%	99.8%	98.9%	50.0%	—	50.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	74.7%	99.8%	99.9%	—	—	90.0%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	67.8%	99.8%	99.2%	96.5%	—	93.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	74.3%	99.9%	99.5%	—	—	96.5%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	77.3%	99.8%	99.7%	85.5%	—	96.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	74.7%	100.0%	99.8%	—	—	96.7%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	66.9%	100.0%	99.9%	95.3%	98.5%	97.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	44.4%	100.0%	96.5%	98.6%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	52.3%	100.0%	92.4%	95.5%	—	92.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	57.2%	100.0%	98.8%	93.0%	—	90.3%
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	48.8%	100.0%	99.9%	88.2%	99.5%	87.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	38.5%	100.0%	100.0%	94.7%	—	87.8%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	47.3%	100.0%	100.0%	92.6%	99.8%	91.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	44.4%	100.0%	100.0%	83.6%	—	91.3%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	48.5%	100.0%	100.0%	89.2%	99.7%	96.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	1.0%	66.2%	48.5%	47.0%	—	33.8%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.6%	0.6%	3.1%	0.2%	0.0%	0.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.8%	1.7%	0.2%	—	0.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	78%	66.0°F	8.6°F	2026-10-11 00:00	0.0502
ICON	72%	63.6°F	7.0°F	2026-10-11 12:00	0.0778
NWS forecast	53%	60.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-11 14:00	0.2172
National Blend	53%	60.0°F	7.8°F	2026-10-11 06:00	0.2247
WeatherNext 2	42%	58.6°F	4.5°F	2026-10-11 12:00	0.3341
IFS HRES	27%	55.4°F	6.6°F	2026-10-11 12:00	0.5388
AIFS Single	24%	55.7°F	5.3°F	2026-10-11 18:00	0.5822

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 60°F · KLGA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLGA-20261017-TMAX-GE60
Opened Oct 11 · 15:11 UTC

Original listing: New York high ≥ 60°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗