WEATHER PROPSBOARDMATCHUPSMODELSSTATIONSREPLAYTHE LEAGUE
← All matchups
KLGA / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

New York, NYHigh ≥ 60°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 12 · 03:15 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
78%
ICON
72%
WN2
42%
HRES
27%
AIFS
24%
Consensus
47%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 50.6¢Risks 50.65u
VS
AIFSNO 49.4¢Risks 49.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +49.35u · AIFS −49.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 44.7% · 2026-10-11T15:11:19+00:00AIFS Single: 44.7% · 2026-10-11T15:57:16+00:00AIFS Single: 44.7% · 2026-10-11T16:42:23+00:00AIFS Single: 44.7% · 2026-10-11T17:27:30+00:00AIFS Single: 44.7% · 2026-10-11T18:13:05+00:00AIFS Single: 44.7% · 2026-10-11T18:58:16+00:00AIFS Single: 29.2% · 2026-10-11T19:43:25+00:00AIFS Single: 29.2% · 2026-10-11T20:28:37+00:00AIFS Single: 29.2% · 2026-10-11T21:13:45+00:00AIFS Single: 29.2% · 2026-10-11T21:58:57+00:00AIFS Single: 29.2% · 2026-10-11T22:44:06+00:00AIFS Single: 29.2% · 2026-10-11T23:29:20+00:00AIFS Single: 29.2% · 2026-10-12T00:14:41+00:00AIFS Single: 29.2% · 2026-10-12T01:00:06+00:00AIFS Single: 23.7% · 2026-10-12T01:45:18+00:00AIFS Single: 23.7% · 2026-10-12T02:30:26+00:00AIFS Single: 23.7% · 2026-10-12T03:15:34+00:00IFS Ensemble: 77.6% · 2026-10-11T15:11:19+00:00IFS Ensemble: 77.6% · 2026-10-11T15:57:16+00:00IFS Ensemble: 77.6% · 2026-10-11T16:42:23+00:00IFS Ensemble: 77.6% · 2026-10-11T17:27:30+00:00IFS Ensemble: 77.6% · 2026-10-11T18:13:05+00:00IFS Ensemble: 77.6% · 2026-10-11T18:58:16+00:00IFS Ensemble: 77.6% · 2026-10-11T19:43:25+00:00IFS Ensemble: 77.6% · 2026-10-11T20:28:37+00:00IFS Ensemble: 77.6% · 2026-10-11T21:13:45+00:00IFS Ensemble: 77.6% · 2026-10-11T21:58:57+00:00IFS Ensemble: 77.6% · 2026-10-11T22:44:06+00:00IFS Ensemble: 77.6% · 2026-10-11T23:29:20+00:00IFS Ensemble: 77.6% · 2026-10-12T00:14:41+00:00IFS Ensemble: 77.6% · 2026-10-12T01:00:06+00:00IFS Ensemble: 77.6% · 2026-10-12T01:45:18+00:00IFS Ensemble: 77.6% · 2026-10-12T02:30:26+00:00IFS Ensemble: 77.6% · 2026-10-12T03:15:34+00:00WeatherNext 2: 71.7% · 2026-10-11T15:11:19+00:00WeatherNext 2: 71.7% · 2026-10-11T15:57:16+00:00WeatherNext 2: 71.7% · 2026-10-11T16:42:23+00:00WeatherNext 2: 70.9% · 2026-10-11T17:27:30+00:00WeatherNext 2: 70.9% · 2026-10-11T18:13:05+00:00WeatherNext 2: 70.9% · 2026-10-11T18:58:16+00:00WeatherNext 2: 70.9% · 2026-10-11T19:43:25+00:00WeatherNext 2: 70.9% · 2026-10-11T20:28:37+00:00WeatherNext 2: 70.9% · 2026-10-11T21:13:45+00:00WeatherNext 2: 70.9% · 2026-10-11T21:58:57+00:00WeatherNext 2: 70.9% · 2026-10-11T22:44:06+00:00WeatherNext 2: 42.2% · 2026-10-11T23:29:20+00:00WeatherNext 2: 42.2% · 2026-10-12T00:14:41+00:00WeatherNext 2: 42.2% · 2026-10-12T01:00:06+00:00WeatherNext 2: 42.2% · 2026-10-12T01:45:18+00:00WeatherNext 2: 42.2% · 2026-10-12T02:30:26+00:00WeatherNext 2: 42.2% · 2026-10-12T03:15:34+00:00IFS HRES: 51.8% · 2026-10-11T15:11:19+00:00IFS HRES: 51.8% · 2026-10-11T15:57:16+00:00IFS HRES: 51.8% · 2026-10-11T16:42:23+00:00IFS HRES: 51.8% · 2026-10-11T17:27:30+00:00IFS HRES: 51.8% · 2026-10-11T18:13:05+00:00IFS HRES: 51.8% · 2026-10-11T18:58:16+00:00IFS HRES: 26.6% · 2026-10-11T19:43:25+00:00IFS HRES: 26.6% · 2026-10-11T20:28:37+00:00IFS HRES: 26.6% · 2026-10-11T21:13:45+00:00IFS HRES: 26.6% · 2026-10-11T21:58:57+00:00IFS HRES: 26.6% · 2026-10-11T22:44:06+00:00IFS HRES: 26.6% · 2026-10-11T23:29:20+00:00IFS HRES: 26.6% · 2026-10-12T00:14:41+00:00IFS HRES: 26.6% · 2026-10-12T01:00:06+00:00IFS HRES: 26.6% · 2026-10-12T01:45:18+00:00IFS HRES: 26.6% · 2026-10-12T02:30:26+00:00IFS HRES: 26.6% · 2026-10-12T03:15:34+00:00ICON: 92.1% · 2026-10-11T15:11:19+00:00ICON: 92.1% · 2026-10-11T15:57:16+00:00ICON: 92.1% · 2026-10-11T16:42:23+00:00ICON: 92.1% · 2026-10-11T17:27:30+00:00ICON: 92.1% · 2026-10-11T18:13:05+00:00ICON: 92.1% · 2026-10-11T18:58:16+00:00ICON: 72.1% · 2026-10-11T19:43:25+00:00ICON: 72.1% · 2026-10-11T20:28:37+00:00ICON: 72.1% · 2026-10-11T21:13:45+00:00ICON: 72.1% · 2026-10-11T21:58:57+00:00ICON: 72.1% · 2026-10-11T22:44:06+00:00ICON: 72.1% · 2026-10-11T23:29:20+00:00ICON: 72.1% · 2026-10-12T00:14:41+00:00ICON: 72.1% · 2026-10-12T01:00:06+00:00ICON: 72.1% · 2026-10-12T01:45:18+00:00ICON: 72.1% · 2026-10-12T02:30:26+00:00ICON: 72.1% · 2026-10-12T03:15:34+00:0010-11 15:1110-11 21:1310-12 03:15
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-12T03:15:34+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-11T15:11:19+00:0044.7%77.6%71.7%51.8%92.1%
2026-10-11T15:57:16+00:0044.7%77.6%71.7%51.8%92.1%
2026-10-11T16:42:23+00:0044.7%77.6%71.7%51.8%92.1%
2026-10-11T17:27:30+00:0044.7%77.6%70.9%51.8%92.1%
2026-10-11T18:13:05+00:0044.7%77.6%70.9%51.8%92.1%
2026-10-11T18:58:16+00:0044.7%77.6%70.9%51.8%92.1%
2026-10-11T19:43:25+00:0029.2%77.6%70.9%26.6%72.1%
2026-10-11T20:28:37+00:0029.2%77.6%70.9%26.6%72.1%
2026-10-11T21:13:45+00:0029.2%77.6%70.9%26.6%72.1%
2026-10-11T21:58:57+00:0029.2%77.6%70.9%26.6%72.1%
2026-10-11T22:44:06+00:0029.2%77.6%70.9%26.6%72.1%
2026-10-11T23:29:20+00:0029.2%77.6%42.2%26.6%72.1%
2026-10-12T00:14:41+00:0029.2%77.6%42.2%26.6%72.1%
2026-10-12T01:00:06+00:0029.2%77.6%42.2%26.6%72.1%
2026-10-12T01:45:18+00:0023.7%77.6%42.2%26.6%72.1%
2026-10-12T02:30:26+00:0023.7%77.6%42.2%26.6%72.1%
2026-10-12T03:15:34+00:0023.7%77.6%42.2%26.6%72.1%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble78%66.0°F8.6°F2026-10-11 00:000.0502
ICON72%63.6°F7.0°F2026-10-11 12:000.0778
NWS forecast53%60.0°F5.8°F2026-10-11 14:000.2172
National Blend53%60.0°F7.8°F2026-10-11 06:000.2247
WeatherNext 242%58.6°F4.5°F2026-10-11 12:000.3341
IFS HRES27%55.4°F6.6°F2026-10-11 12:000.5388
AIFS Single24%55.7°F5.3°F2026-10-11 18:000.5822

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 60°F · KLGA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLGA-20261017-TMAX-GE60
Opened Oct 11 · 15:11 UTC

Original listing: New York high ≥ 60°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗