KLGA / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

New York, NYHigh ≥ 60°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST83%Oct 17 · 03:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

99%

89%

87%

73%

44%

Consensus

83%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 71.4¢Risks 71.35u

EPSNO 28.6¢Risks 28.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +28.65u · EPS −28.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	59.5%	—	—	—	—	40.0%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	—	74.8%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	64.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	63.1%	—	—	—	—	65.5%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	—	—	—	69.4%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	—	—	—	56.9%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	67.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	—	—	—	51.1%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	92.1%	—	—	—	—	56.9%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	77.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	75.6%	—	—	—	—	55.3%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	88.6%	—	—	—	—	56.9%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	11.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	31.5%	—	—	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	23.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	9.5%	—	—	—	—	66.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	43.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	27.3%	—	—	—	—	60.4%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	24.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	59.6%	—	2.9%	—	—	60.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	66.8%	—	15.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	—	—	—	53.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	58.2%	—	26.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	60.9%	—	—	65.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	67.3%	—	82.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	46.6%	38.0%	81.5%	—	—	58.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	60.2%	—	76.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	59.7%	11.9%	68.9%	14.1%	—	53.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	64.7%	—	77.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	60.8%	94.3%	69.6%	86.1%	—	57.3%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	58.2%	—	93.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	63.5%	96.2%	89.7%	85.4%	—	56.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	53.9%	—	93.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	60.3%	93.3%	92.8%	40.5%	—	46.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	51.6%	14.4%	92.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	49.2%	69.2%	90.3%	25.1%	—	35.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	54.3%	77.4%	88.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	38.8%	77.2%	87.8%	12.7%	—	48.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	64.1%	86.5%	90.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	39.1%	67.8%	84.5%	51.8%	—	45.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	47.2%	81.0%	50.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	39.4%	91.4%	63.4%	56.8%	—	20.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	47.0%	88.1%	9.2%	—	—	29.9%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	53.1%	86.1%	60.2%	72.4%	—	49.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	60.5%	90.8%	66.5%	—	—	58.4%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	60.8%	87.5%	71.8%	84.5%	0.0%	60.8%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	66.4%	73.3%	80.2%	4.0%	—	66.4%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	63.7%	68.0%	79.3%	91.5%	59.2%	61.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	64.1%	92.2%	77.5%	89.8%	—	52.4%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	65.8%	81.8%	80.9%	88.8%	0.0%	58.7%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	62.7%	78.1%	80.0%	85.0%	—	44.9%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	70.5%	80.0%	87.4%	83.5%	71.6%	64.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	74.7%	89.6%	86.8%	90.2%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	78.8%	89.2%	86.2%	91.1%	89.8%	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	99%	66.9°F	3.4°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
ICON	89%	64.4°F	4.0°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	87%	64.3°F	4.3°F	2026-10-16 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	73%	62.3°F	4.5°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	60.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-16 14:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	60.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	44%	58.9°F	4.1°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 60°F · KLGA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLGA-20261019-TMAX-GE60
Opened Oct 16 · 15:05 UTC

Original listing: New York high ≥ 60°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗