KLGA / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

New York, NYHigh ≥ 60°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST83%Oct 17 · 03:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

99%

89%

87%

73%

44%

Consensus

83%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 71.4¢Risks 71.35u

EPSNO 28.6¢Risks 28.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +28.65u · EPS −28.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T03:55:34+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-16T15:05:05+00:00	80.0%	44.1%	95.2%	36.0%	94.4%
2026-10-16T15:50:52+00:00	80.0%	44.1%	95.2%	36.0%	94.4%
2026-10-16T16:36:02+00:00	80.0%	44.1%	95.2%	36.0%	94.4%
2026-10-16T17:21:16+00:00	80.0%	44.1%	98.4%	36.0%	94.4%
2026-10-16T18:06:34+00:00	80.0%	44.1%	98.4%	36.0%	94.4%
2026-10-16T18:51:40+00:00	80.0%	44.1%	98.4%	36.0%	94.4%
2026-10-16T19:36:47+00:00	83.7%	44.1%	98.4%	36.0%	89.1%
2026-10-16T20:22:20+00:00	83.7%	44.1%	98.4%	36.0%	89.1%
2026-10-16T21:07:43+00:00	83.7%	44.1%	98.4%	36.0%	89.1%
2026-10-16T21:52:50+00:00	83.7%	44.1%	98.4%	36.0%	89.1%
2026-10-16T22:37:57+00:00	83.7%	44.1%	98.4%	73.4%	89.1%
2026-10-16T23:23:13+00:00	83.7%	44.1%	98.6%	73.4%	89.1%
2026-10-17T00:08:44+00:00	83.7%	44.1%	98.6%	73.4%	89.1%
2026-10-17T00:54:54+00:00	83.7%	44.1%	98.6%	73.4%	89.1%
2026-10-17T01:40:02+00:00	86.9%	44.1%	98.6%	73.4%	89.1%
2026-10-17T02:25:16+00:00	86.9%	44.1%	98.6%	73.4%	89.1%
2026-10-17T03:10:26+00:00	86.9%	44.1%	98.6%	73.4%	89.1%
2026-10-17T03:55:34+00:00	86.9%	44.1%	98.6%	73.4%	89.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	99%	66.9°F	3.4°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
ICON	89%	64.4°F	4.0°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	87%	64.3°F	4.3°F	2026-10-16 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	73%	62.3°F	4.5°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	60.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-16 14:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	60.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	44%	58.9°F	4.1°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 60°F · KLGA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLGA-20261019-TMAX-GE60
Opened Oct 16 · 15:05 UTC

Original listing: New York high ≥ 60°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗