KLGA / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

New York, NYHigh ≥ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST53%Oct 19 · 06:47 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

86%

66%

53%

37%

22%

Consensus

53%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 53.6¢Risks 53.60u

ICONNO 46.4¢Risks 46.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +46.40u · ICON −46.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	—	—	—	21.6%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	55.3%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	—	44.7%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	48.9%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	35.9%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	30.6%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	—	—	—	35.9%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	—	—	—	34.5%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	74.8%	—	—	—	—	35.9%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	15.0%	—	—	—	—	29.1%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	9.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	—	—	—	43.8%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	23.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	11.7%	—	—	—	—	37.3%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	9.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	35.8%	—	0.6%	—	—	36.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	5.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	35.3%	—	—	—	—	29.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	33.3%	—	10.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	41.6%	—	35.4%	—	—	40.3%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	41.4%	—	61.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	22.3%	16.3%	58.7%	—	—	31.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	33.3%	—	50.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	32.3%	3.0%	41.6%	3.8%	—	26.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	36.6%	—	50.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	32.3%	80.1%	41.3%	63.6%	—	29.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	29.3%	—	78.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	33.7%	84.5%	69.1%	61.3%	—	27.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	24.7%	—	76.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	29.5%	75.8%	74.5%	14.9%	—	18.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	21.8%	3.0%	73.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	19.5%	36.9%	67.8%	6.6%	—	11.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	22.6%	45.7%	62.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	12.2%	44.8%	61.3%	2.2%	—	17.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	29.4%	58.0%	66.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	11.5%	32.2%	53.7%	19.0%	—	14.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	15.4%	47.2%	17.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	10.7%	65.2%	26.3%	21.0%	—	3.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	14.0%	57.0%	1.0%	—	—	6.3%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	17.0%	52.1%	21.9%	33.0%	—	14.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	21.3%	60.5%	26.2%	—	—	19.8%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	20.6%	52.2%	30.1%	46.7%	0.0%	20.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	24.0%	30.5%	38.9%	0.2%	—	24.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	20.7%	24.2%	36.3%	58.1%	17.5%	19.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	19.9%	58.4%	32.5%	52.4%	—	12.6%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	19.9%	36.5%	35.4%	48.8%	0.0%	15.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	16.6%	30.2%	32.5%	39.8%	—	7.7%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	21.0%	30.7%	42.0%	35.6%	22.0%	16.5%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	23.2%	44.4%	39.0%	45.8%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	25.6%	41.4%	35.8%	45.7%	42.8%	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	86%	66.6°F	2.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
AIFS Single	66%	65.1°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	64.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	53%	63.8°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	63.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	37%	62.3°F	3.6°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
ICON	22%	60.7°F	3.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KLGA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLGA-20261019-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 12 · 11:35 UTC

Original listing: New York high ≥ 64°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗