KLGA / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

New York, NYHigh ≥ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST53%Oct 19 · 06:47 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

86%

66%

53%

37%

22%

Consensus

53%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 53.6¢Risks 53.60u

ICONNO 46.4¢Risks 46.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +46.40u · ICON −46.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:47:18+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-12T11:35:16+00:00	47.1%	36.5%	34.3%	65.3%	44.8%
2026-10-12T12:20:45+00:00	47.1%	41.9%	34.3%	65.3%	44.8%
2026-10-12T13:05:53+00:00	47.1%	41.9%	34.3%	65.3%	44.8%
2026-10-12T13:51:01+00:00	59.9%	41.9%	34.3%	65.3%	44.8%
2026-10-12T14:41:14+00:00	59.8%	41.9%	34.4%	65.3%	44.8%
2026-10-12T15:26:26+00:00	59.8%	41.9%	34.4%	65.3%	44.8%
2026-10-12T16:12:53+00:00	59.8%	39.1%	34.4%	65.3%	44.8%
2026-10-12T16:58:00+00:00	59.8%	39.1%	34.4%	65.3%	44.8%
2026-10-12T17:43:10+00:00	59.8%	39.1%	58.8%	65.3%	44.8%
2026-10-12T18:28:17+00:00	59.8%	39.1%	58.8%	65.3%	44.8%
2026-10-12T19:13:23+00:00	59.8%	39.1%	58.8%	65.3%	44.8%
2026-10-12T19:58:30+00:00	59.8%	39.1%	58.8%	65.3%	26.6%
2026-10-12T20:43:40+00:00	59.8%	39.1%	58.8%	65.3%	26.6%
2026-10-12T21:28:47+00:00	59.8%	39.1%	58.8%	65.3%	26.6%
2026-10-12T22:13:54+00:00	59.8%	39.1%	58.8%	65.3%	26.6%
2026-10-12T22:59:03+00:00	59.8%	39.1%	71.3%	65.3%	26.6%
2026-10-12T23:44:15+00:00	59.8%	39.1%	71.3%	65.3%	26.6%
2026-10-13T00:29:21+00:00	59.8%	39.1%	71.3%	65.3%	26.6%
2026-10-13T01:14:37+00:00	59.8%	39.1%	71.3%	65.3%	26.6%
2026-10-13T01:59:44+00:00	63.9%	39.1%	71.3%	65.3%	26.6%
2026-10-13T02:44:53+00:00	63.9%	39.1%	71.3%	65.3%	26.6%
2026-10-13T03:29:59+00:00	63.9%	39.1%	71.3%	65.3%	26.6%
2026-10-13T04:15:09+00:00	63.9%	39.1%	71.3%	65.3%	26.6%
2026-10-13T05:01:41+00:00	63.9%	39.1%	71.3%	65.3%	26.6%
2026-10-13T05:46:49+00:00	63.9%	39.1%	69.3%	65.3%	26.6%
2026-10-13T06:31:58+00:00	63.9%	39.1%	69.3%	65.3%	26.6%
2026-10-13T07:17:15+00:00	63.9%	39.1%	69.3%	65.3%	26.6%
2026-10-13T08:02:27+00:00	59.7%	39.1%	69.3%	56.7%	87.5%
2026-10-13T08:49:37+00:00	59.7%	39.1%	69.3%	56.7%	87.5%
2026-10-13T09:34:43+00:00	59.7%	39.1%	69.3%	56.7%	87.5%
2026-10-13T10:19:49+00:00	59.7%	39.1%	69.3%	56.7%	87.5%
2026-10-13T11:05:04+00:00	59.7%	39.1%	69.3%	56.7%	87.5%
2026-10-13T11:50:32+00:00	59.7%	32.9%	69.3%	56.7%	87.5%
2026-10-13T12:35:47+00:00	59.7%	32.9%	69.3%	56.7%	87.5%
2026-10-13T13:20:52+00:00	59.7%	32.9%	69.3%	56.7%	87.5%
2026-10-13T14:05:59+00:00	57.5%	32.9%	69.2%	56.7%	87.8%
2026-10-13T14:56:01+00:00	57.5%	32.9%	69.2%	56.7%	87.8%
2026-10-13T15:41:11+00:00	57.5%	33.8%	69.2%	56.7%	87.8%
2026-10-13T16:27:00+00:00	57.5%	33.8%	69.2%	56.7%	87.8%
2026-10-13T17:12:07+00:00	57.5%	33.8%	73.0%	56.7%	87.8%
2026-10-13T17:57:15+00:00	57.5%	33.8%	73.0%	56.7%	87.8%
2026-10-13T18:42:21+00:00	57.5%	33.8%	73.0%	56.7%	87.8%
2026-10-13T19:27:26+00:00	57.5%	33.8%	73.0%	56.7%	87.8%
2026-10-13T20:12:31+00:00	61.9%	33.8%	73.0%	56.7%	89.7%
2026-10-13T20:57:40+00:00	61.9%	33.8%	73.0%	56.7%	89.7%
2026-10-13T21:42:47+00:00	61.9%	33.8%	73.0%	56.7%	89.7%
2026-10-13T22:28:21+00:00	61.9%	33.8%	73.0%	56.7%	89.7%
2026-10-13T23:13:31+00:00	61.9%	33.8%	77.1%	51.2%	89.7%
2026-10-13T23:58:41+00:00	61.9%	33.8%	77.1%	51.2%	89.7%
2026-10-14T00:43:50+00:00	61.9%	33.8%	77.1%	51.2%	89.7%
2026-10-14T01:29:06+00:00	52.3%	33.8%	77.1%	51.2%	89.7%
2026-10-14T02:14:15+00:00	52.3%	33.8%	77.1%	51.2%	89.7%
2026-10-14T02:59:23+00:00	52.3%	33.8%	77.1%	51.2%	89.7%
2026-10-14T03:45:23+00:00	52.3%	33.8%	77.1%	51.2%	89.7%
2026-10-14T04:30:42+00:00	52.3%	33.8%	77.1%	51.2%	89.7%
2026-10-14T05:15:50+00:00	52.3%	33.8%	77.1%	51.2%	89.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:56+00:00	52.3%	33.8%	77.1%	51.2%	89.7%
2026-10-14T06:46:03+00:00	52.3%	33.8%	77.1%	51.2%	89.7%
2026-10-14T07:31:24+00:00	58.8%	33.8%	77.1%	51.2%	85.0%
2026-10-14T08:16:32+00:00	58.8%	33.8%	77.1%	51.2%	85.0%
2026-10-14T09:01:43+00:00	58.8%	33.8%	77.1%	51.2%	85.0%
2026-10-14T09:46:50+00:00	58.8%	33.8%	77.1%	51.2%	85.0%
2026-10-14T10:32:01+00:00	58.8%	33.8%	77.1%	38.4%	85.0%
2026-10-14T11:20:29+00:00	58.8%	30.4%	76.7%	38.4%	85.0%
2026-10-14T12:06:09+00:00	58.8%	30.4%	76.7%	38.4%	85.0%
2026-10-14T12:51:17+00:00	58.8%	30.4%	76.7%	38.4%	85.0%
2026-10-14T13:36:25+00:00	50.0%	30.4%	76.7%	38.4%	85.0%
2026-10-14T14:26:47+00:00	50.0%	30.4%	76.7%	38.4%	84.8%
2026-10-18T04:13:36+00:00	59.7%	43.6%	84.9%	55.8%	22.3%
2026-10-18T05:00:10+00:00	59.7%	43.6%	85.6%	55.8%	22.3%
2026-10-18T05:45:17+00:00	59.7%	43.6%	85.6%	55.8%	22.3%
2026-10-18T06:30:24+00:00	59.7%	43.6%	85.6%	55.8%	22.3%
2026-10-18T07:15:30+00:00	59.7%	43.6%	85.6%	55.8%	22.3%
2026-10-18T08:00:44+00:00	60.0%	43.6%	85.6%	44.7%	24.8%
2026-10-18T08:47:08+00:00	60.0%	43.6%	85.6%	44.7%	24.8%
2026-10-18T09:32:15+00:00	60.0%	43.6%	85.6%	44.7%	24.8%
2026-10-18T10:17:23+00:00	60.0%	43.6%	85.6%	44.7%	24.8%
2026-10-18T11:02:31+00:00	60.0%	43.6%	85.6%	44.7%	24.8%
2026-10-18T11:48:09+00:00	60.0%	40.0%	84.1%	44.7%	24.8%
2026-10-18T12:33:24+00:00	60.0%	40.0%	84.1%	44.7%	24.8%
2026-10-18T13:18:58+00:00	60.0%	40.0%	84.1%	44.7%	24.8%
2026-10-18T14:04:06+00:00	58.0%	40.1%	84.1%	44.6%	25.0%
2026-10-18T14:55:22+00:00	58.0%	40.1%	84.1%	44.6%	25.0%
2026-10-19T04:30:12+00:00	65.8%	37.1%	84.1%	53.2%	21.5%
2026-10-19T05:16:50+00:00	65.8%	37.1%	85.7%	53.2%	21.5%
2026-10-19T06:02:10+00:00	65.8%	37.1%	85.7%	53.2%	21.5%
2026-10-19T06:47:18+00:00	65.8%	37.1%	85.7%	53.2%	21.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	86%	66.6°F	2.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
AIFS Single	66%	65.1°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	64.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	53%	63.8°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	63.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	37%	62.3°F	3.6°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
ICON	22%	60.7°F	3.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KLGA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLGA-20261019-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 12 · 11:35 UTC

Original listing: New York high ≥ 64°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗