KLGA / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

New York, NYHigh ≥ 74°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 14 · 16:43 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

26%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 12.9¢Risks 12.90u

EPSNO 87.1¢Risks 87.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +87.10u · EPS −87.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	—	—	—	1.7%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	—	—	—	11.5%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	—	—	—	7.1%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	—	—	—	8.7%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	—	—	—	4.5%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	—	—	—	3.3%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	4.5%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—	4.2%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	4.5%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	2.7%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	5.7%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	3.6%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	0.0%	—	—	3.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	—	—	—	1.7%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	0.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	2.2%	—	—	3.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	8.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	0.7%	0.4%	7.0%	—	—	1.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	4.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	1.3%	0.0%	2.4%	0.0%	—	0.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	3.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	1.1%	16.1%	2.0%	6.9%	—	0.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	13.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	1.0%	18.4%	7.8%	5.2%	—	0.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	10.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	9.7%	9.0%	0.1%	—	0.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.0%	7.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.8%	5.1%	0.0%	—	0.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	1.2%	3.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	1.0%	2.8%	0.0%	—	0.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	2.0%	3.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.3%	1.3%	0.1%	—	0.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.7%	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	2.0%	0.1%	0.1%	—	0.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	1.0%	0.0%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.6%	0.0%	0.1%	—	0.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.8%	0.1%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.4%	0.1%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.3%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.2%	0.0%	0.1%	—	0.0%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	0.0%	0.0%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	26%	69.6°F	5.9°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	8%	66.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-14 14:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	4%	66.5°F	4.1°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	2%	63.5°F	5.0°F	2026-10-14 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	2%	61.8°F	5.8°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
National Blend	2%	65.0°F	4.0°F	2026-10-14 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	61.4°F	4.3°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 74°F · KLGA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLGA-20261019-TMAX-GE74
Opened Oct 12 · 07:47 UTC

Original listing: New York runs hot-for-here: 74°F+ · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗