KLGA / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

New York, NYHigh ≥ 74°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 14 · 16:43 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

26%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 12.9¢Risks 12.90u

EPSNO 87.1¢Risks 87.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +87.10u · EPS −87.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-14T16:43:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-12T07:47:40+00:00	3.1%	1.2%	5.9%	11.8%	12.6%
2026-10-12T08:34:20+00:00	3.1%	1.2%	5.9%	11.8%	12.6%
2026-10-12T09:19:35+00:00	3.1%	1.2%	5.9%	11.8%	12.6%
2026-10-12T10:04:45+00:00	3.1%	1.2%	5.9%	11.8%	12.6%
2026-10-12T10:50:05+00:00	3.1%	1.2%	5.9%	11.8%	12.6%
2026-10-12T17:43:10+00:00	6.3%	1.7%	3.7%	11.8%	12.7%
2026-10-12T18:28:17+00:00	6.3%	1.7%	3.7%	11.8%	12.7%
2026-10-12T19:13:23+00:00	6.3%	1.7%	3.7%	11.8%	12.7%
2026-10-12T19:58:30+00:00	6.3%	1.7%	3.7%	11.8%	5.1%
2026-10-12T20:43:40+00:00	6.3%	1.7%	3.7%	11.8%	5.1%
2026-10-12T21:28:47+00:00	6.3%	1.7%	3.7%	11.8%	5.1%
2026-10-12T22:13:54+00:00	6.3%	1.7%	3.7%	11.8%	5.1%
2026-10-12T22:59:03+00:00	6.3%	1.7%	7.4%	11.8%	5.1%
2026-10-12T23:44:15+00:00	6.3%	1.7%	7.4%	11.8%	5.1%
2026-10-13T00:29:21+00:00	6.3%	1.7%	7.4%	11.8%	5.1%
2026-10-13T01:14:37+00:00	6.3%	1.7%	7.4%	11.8%	5.1%
2026-10-13T01:59:44+00:00	7.7%	1.7%	7.4%	11.8%	5.1%
2026-10-13T02:44:53+00:00	7.7%	1.7%	7.4%	11.8%	5.1%
2026-10-13T03:29:59+00:00	7.7%	1.7%	7.4%	11.8%	5.1%
2026-10-13T04:15:09+00:00	7.7%	1.7%	7.4%	11.8%	5.1%
2026-10-13T05:01:41+00:00	7.7%	1.7%	7.4%	11.8%	5.1%
2026-10-13T05:46:49+00:00	7.7%	1.7%	6.6%	11.8%	5.1%
2026-10-13T06:31:58+00:00	7.7%	1.7%	6.6%	11.8%	5.1%
2026-10-13T07:17:15+00:00	7.7%	1.7%	6.6%	11.8%	5.1%
2026-10-13T08:02:27+00:00	5.1%	1.7%	6.6%	8.7%	39.3%
2026-10-13T08:49:37+00:00	5.1%	1.7%	6.6%	8.7%	39.3%
2026-10-13T09:34:43+00:00	5.1%	1.7%	6.6%	8.7%	39.3%
2026-10-13T10:19:49+00:00	5.1%	1.7%	6.6%	8.7%	39.3%
2026-10-13T11:05:04+00:00	5.1%	1.7%	6.6%	8.7%	39.3%
2026-10-13T11:50:32+00:00	5.1%	0.1%	4.6%	8.7%	39.3%
2026-10-13T12:35:47+00:00	5.1%	0.1%	4.6%	8.7%	39.3%
2026-10-13T13:20:52+00:00	5.1%	0.1%	4.6%	8.7%	39.3%
2026-10-13T14:05:59+00:00	4.5%	0.1%	4.6%	8.7%	39.9%
2026-10-13T14:56:01+00:00	4.5%	0.1%	4.6%	8.7%	39.9%
2026-10-14T15:11:57+00:00	2.2%	0.2%	4.4%	2.1%	25.6%
2026-10-14T15:57:51+00:00	2.2%	0.2%	4.4%	2.1%	25.6%
2026-10-14T16:43:00+00:00	2.2%	0.2%	4.4%	2.1%	25.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	26%	69.6°F	5.9°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	8%	66.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-14 14:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	4%	66.5°F	4.1°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	2%	63.5°F	5.0°F	2026-10-14 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	2%	61.8°F	5.8°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
National Blend	2%	65.0°F	4.0°F	2026-10-14 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	61.4°F	4.3°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 74°F · KLGA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLGA-20261019-TMAX-GE74
Opened Oct 12 · 07:47 UTC

Original listing: New York runs hot-for-here: 74°F+ · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗